Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 15 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

We can’t believe it’s already NFL Week 15 of the 18-week regular season here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. I went a disappointing 3-4 ATS in Week 14, losing the so-called “rubber game” on Monday night with the Cowboys’ Bad Beat as 5.5-point home underdogs in their 27-20 loss on MNF thanks to the fluke first down the Bengals got on a blocked punt (but, as I Tweeted @ViewFromVegas, if any team should know to not touch a blocked kick beyond the line of scrimmage it should be Dallas because of Leon Lett’s infamous gaffe in the snow on Thanksgiving 1993).

My wins were on the Panthers +12.5 (closed +14) at the Eagles, Jets +6.5 at the Dolphins in OT and Chargers +4 at the Chiefs (fading the Chiefs is the gift that keeps on giving). The other losses were on the Browns +7 at the Steelers, Raiders +7 at the Buccaneers and Bears +4 at the 49ers.

 

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Regular readers know that our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio plays have been carrying us all season, and they swept again in Week 14 with my favorite leg of my 2-team, 6-point teasers coming through on the Seahawks +9 at the Cardinals (though we didn’t even need any points as the Seahawks won outright, 30-18) along with our recommended chalky legs on the Steelers -0.5 vs. the Browns and the Buccaneers -0.5 vs. the Raiders (though it would have been a bigger winning week if we had hit at least one of those middles we were shooting for!). 

For those curious, my ViewFromVegas NFL Betting Stats (also posted weekly @ViewFromVegas and often quoted in the VSiN Daily Newsletter) have favorites holding a narrow lead on the season at 100-98-6 ATS (50.5%) with three games closing pick-’em. I often discuss here how I don’t put as much stock in home-field advantage these days, and that’s been backed up by road teams leading 106-90-6 ATS (54.1%). Overs are slightly profitable overall at 107-97-3 (52.5%).

But enough looking back (except to learn from our mistakes). Let’s get to our takes for NFL Week 15, which is back to the full 16-game games with all bye weeks in the rear-view mirror. In addition to the Thursday night lid-lifter, we have two Monday Night Football games this week.

For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes columns, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also give the aforementioned “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” of 2-team, 6-point teasers and my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5/-3)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

We get a Thursday nighter with both needs in a must-win spot to stay in the NFC playoff hunt, with the Rams (7-6) trailing the Seahawks in the NFC West race and the Commanders in the wild card chase by a game and the 49ers (6-7) two games back. The Rams pulled a 27-24 upset in the first meeting way back in Week 3, so it’s tempting to take them with the points again here, but the number is a little too short for me (Note for the uninitiated: the -2.5/-3 means the line hasn’t settled completely with some books dealing 49ers -2.5 and others at -3, mostly with added -120 juice on the side you want to bet). Instead, let’s kick off our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” by moving the spread on the Rams through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to +8.5 or +9. We’ll use it as the first leg of 2-team, 6-point teasers to the Sunday games in the “teaser zone”: Dolphins +8.5 or +9 at the Texans, Cowboys +8.5 or +9 at the Panthers, Bills +8 at the Lions and Seahawks +8.5 or +9 vs. the Packers. 

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Rams +8.5 or +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Rams 55/45 in my rare ATS contests that use TNF, but 49ers 60/40 in SU pools).

Washington Commanders (-7.5) at New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The top game on Sunday’s NFL card has been conflicted. The last time we saw the Commanders before their bye, I was fading them with the Titans +5.5 and lost terribly, 42-19. I’m afraid that could happen again with the Saints with Derek Carr out with a hand injury and Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener taking over. However, the advance line on this game last week was Commanders -3 and now it’s passed through the key number of 7, so I can’t resist plugging my nose and taking the ugly home dog getting more than a touchdown.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Saints +7.5 (pool play: Saints 60/40 in ATS contests, but Commanders still 75/25 in SU pools).

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-2.5/-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Dolphins (6-7) kept their slim playoff hopes alive with their 32-26 OT win over the Jets on Sunday. Like the Rams-49ers game, this is also wavering at -2.5/-3, and the play is to tease the Dolphins through the 3 and 7. The Texans (8-5) are having a good season, but except for the blowout of the Cowboys in Week 11, they usually play close games, so the Dolphins should be able to stay within one score.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Dolphins +8.5 or +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in ATS contests, but Texans 60/40 in SU pools).

New York Jets (-3/-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Jets (3-10) squeaked out the ATS cover at +6.5 in that 32-26 OT loss at Miami (though many had to settle for a push at +6), but they’ve been burning money for backers all season. The Jaguars (also 3-10) have similarly had a disappointing season and are without Trevor Lawrence. However, I do like how the team has continued to play hard and be competitive most weeks (except the blowout loss at Detroit in Week 11), covering in a 23-20 loss vs. the Texans after their bye and then beating the Titans 10-6 this past Sunday. Take the home dog at more than a field goal.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Jaguars +3.5, though will settle for +3 EVEN (pool play: Jaguars 60/40 in ATS contests, but Jets still 60/40 in SU pools).

Cincinnati Bengals (-5) at Tennessee Titans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Bengals are another team that has burned a lot of money this season, but they lucked out on Monday night to cover against the Cowboys, as mentioned in the intro. It’s tempting to fade them again, but not with the Titans after watching their ugly loss vs. the Jaguars. Besides, I like other dogs way better on this full NFL schedule. Hard pass.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).

Baltimore Ravens (-16.5) at New York Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

This mismatch is this week’s equivalent of last week’s Eagles-Panthers game, where we plugged our nose and easily covered as the Eagles only won 22-16 after the Panthers actually led 16-14 in the third quarter and had Survivor and big money-line players sweating bullets. This line keeps climbing (-12 on the advance line last week, re-opened -14 on Sunday night and now above two TDs and two 2-point conversions), so I can’t resist the overinflated line even with Tommy DeVito back in the starting lineup for the G-men.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Giants +16.5 (pool play: Giants 65/35 in ATS contests, but Ravens still at least 90/10 in SU pools).

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

As I wrote in the intro, fading the Chiefs ATS is the gift that keeps on giving. Besides our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio,” fading the Chiefs angle (7-0 ATS the last seven weeks) is the gift that keeps on giving. BUT – and this is a big BUT – I don’t believe in betting anything blindly, and I have to pass this week. The advance line was Chiefs -5.5, and it’s now down to -4. That’s too short for me to take the Browns in this spot. Carry on if you must, but I’m sitting this one out as the value has been sucked out of the line.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chiefs 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-2.5/-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The advance line last week was Cowboys -2 before the Panthers covered vs. the Eagles, and the Cowboys lost on Monday night. The line re-opened at pick ’em on Sunday afternoon at the Westgate SuperBook, and there’s been a change of favorite with the Panthers all the way up to -2.5/-3. However, even though the Cowboys let us down on Monday night, I still have them power-rated as the better team and was very close to including them as an ATS play here. Instead, as noted above, we’re just using them in the “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.”

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Cowboys +8.5 or +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contests, but Panthers still 55/45 in SU pools).

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Sometimes, the Eagles (11-2) look like the most complete team in the NFL, and other times, they struggle like in that non-cover vs. the Panthers. Meanwhile, the Steelers (10-3) have been much more consistent since Russell Wilson took over at QB. This should be a battle that should come down to a field goal, so +5 is plenty good enough for me, especially when I consider the coaching edge of Mike Tomlin over Nick Sirianni.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Steelers +5 (pool play: Steelers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Eagles still 67/33 in SU pools).

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Steelers-Eagles is pretty good, but this could be the game of the day. The Lions have been letting teams stick around more lately, but I’m still not looking to take the Bills with the short number, so again, it’s a prime teaser opportunity in what should be another one-score game (which, ultimately, is what has made these underdog teasers so strong this season even with needing to lay -120 or -125).

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Bills +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests, but Lions still 60/40 in SU pools).

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-4)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

The Colts have been a tough team to figure out this season, as they tend to lose to strong teams and squeak out wins vs. mediocre teams. Now, what are the Broncos? Are they a good team or a mediocre team with some luck on their side, too? The Colts were on my initial list of potential dogs to bet this week, but just like the Browns vs. the Chiefs, this line has dipped from +5 to +4.5 to now +4, so I’m passing and sticking with my stronger dogs.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Broncos still 70/30 in SU pools).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Both teams have exceeded expectations this season and in the playoff hunt in their respective conferences. The Bucs are tempting as a dog, but the line seems set perfectly at 3 as a coin-flip proposition (and it doesn’t look like it’s moving), so I’ll just be watching this out of the corner of my eye while watching my other action in the late Sunday afternoon window.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Chargers still 60/40 in SU pools).

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-6)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

As stated a couple of times above, there are plenty of live dogs I love in Week 15 and don’t have to play me “leans.” The Patriots are another team (like the Browns and Colts) that I liked a lot more at higher numbers. The advance line last week was Cardinals -7 before they lost to the Seahawks (and the Pats were on a bye), but the line re-opened -6.5 and has continued to drop to the point where it’s too short for me to back the dog.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Patriots 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Cardinals 75/25 in SU pools).

Green Bay Packers (-2.5/-3) at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

The Sunday nighter could be a playoff preview for wild-card weekend, though the Seahawks (8-5) have to hang on in the NFC West. The Packers (9-4) look like a lock for a wild-card spot and are rightfully favored here. It’s too short for me to take the Seahawks ATS, but again, we’re in prime teaser territory in what should be a playoff atmosphere and another one-score game.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Seahawks +8.5 or +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests, but Packers 60/40 in SU pools).

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7)

Monday, 8 p.m. ET

We get a Monday Night Football double-header this week that we all love, though I wish the starting times were staggered a little wide like they usually are instead of just half an hour apart. Anyway, the Bears let me down last week when they didn’t show up despite having the “first game for a new coach” bump. Hopefully, this is where we see that happen as the Bears, despite some brutal losses this season, have shown they can play good teams tight, just like they did in taking these same Vikings to overtime just three weeks ago before losing 30-27 in OT. We’ll take the same thing here. Besides, don’t forget that despite the Vikes’ 42-21 blowout win over the Falcons on Sunday, they have non-covering wins vs. the Jaguars and Cardinals the last five weeks in addition to the non-cover vs. the Bears.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Bears +7 (pool play: Bears 60/40 in ATS contests, but Vikings 70/30 in SU pools).

Atlanta Falcons (-4) at Las Vegas Raiders

Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET

I can’t think of another game on this week’s schedule that I’m less excited to watch than this one, which is rare for any Monday nighter. The Raiders (2-11) are playing out the string, and I just can’t pull the trigger on them against a Falcons (6-7) team still fighting in the NFC South race. I’ll be focusing on the Bears-Vikings option.

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

For more NFL Week 15 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 15 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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