The phrase “survive and advance” has never been more accurate than it was in Week 1. Many in NFL Survivor pools did not survive. The only extremely popular choice to win outright was the Baltimore Ravens over the New York Jets, which did account for over 27% of the field in Circa Survivor. No other team to get at least 9% of the selections won, meaning four of the five most popular picks went down.
The Indianapolis Colts tied the Houston Texans 20-20 and ties are a loss in the win or go home format. The Tennessee Titans lost on a two-point conversion to the New York Giants by a 21-20 count. The San Francisco 49ers had their water wings deflate, as they sank 19-10 against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field while playing on a Slip-N-Slide. Then it was the Denver Broncos who were the cherry on top with the 17-16 loss to the Seattle Seahawks as a last-second 64-yard field goal attempt never really had a chance.
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Over 56% of the Circa Survivor field lost the $1,000 entry fee during a week of carnage and your Survivor pool likely looks about the same. Had the Saints not eked out an overtime win against the Falcons, almost 65% of the field would have been bounced. If the contest were to stop now and everybody would chop the prize pool, the remaining entrants would receive more than double their initial investment at $2,284.17.
Last season, it took us until Week 8 to get a noteworthy upset when Mike White and the Jets upended the Cincinnati Bengals as a double-digit dog. This past week felt strange with so many road favorites after a lot of teams opted not to play their starters for most of the preseason. A lot of games felt disjointed, but there was a lot of bad luck involved as well.
The Broncos outgained the Seahawks by 1.6 yards per play, but fumbled twice inside the five-yard line and settled for two short field goals. The 49ers held the Bears to just 3.6 yards per play in the Mud Bowl, but lost. The Colts outgained the Texans by over 200 yards and 1.3 yards per play, but needed a 17-point comeback just to force overtime and then missed a 42-yard field goal that likely would have won the game. Evan McPherson missed a 29-yard field goal for the Bengals in OT that would have won the game.
Week 2 seems to feature some safer choices, but you never know and maybe this is just the year of the upset in the NFL.
