Week 7 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

A Super Bowl rematch headlines Sunday’s schedule. The second-most intriguing game of NFL Week 7 features a 2-4 team as the new-look New York Jets play at Pittsburgh in prime time.

The Jets, who lost in interim coach Jeff Ulbrich’s debut Monday night, will unveil new wideout Davante Adams. New York traded for Adams, who faked a hamstring injury and whined his way out of Las Vegas, to make quarterback Aaron Rodgers happy. Adams and Rodgers are reunited, and it feels so good, at least for now. The Jets need the win to keep their AFC East title hopes from fading into oblivion.

 

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New York’s soft defensive front was bulldozed by the Bills, and the Steelers’ ground-and-pound running attack could inflict similar punishment. The favorite has flipped from Steelers -1.5 to Jets -1.5. I have been tempted to bet the underdog, but Pittsburgh’s quarterback switch from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson is a dubious decision. It should be a one-score game, so I’ll play the Steelers +7.5 on a six-point teaser.

Here are my five best bets for Week 7:

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

In February, when these teams met in the Super Bowl in Las Vegas, the 49ers were 2-point favorites. The Chiefs pulled a rabbit out of the hat and prevailed 25-22 in overtime. It was obvious San Francisco was the better team for a majority of the game before blowing it late. Patrick Mahomes was the better quarterback in crunch time, as is usually the case. It should be a different story this time.

The Chiefs are extremely fortunate to be 5-0, getting help from the third team on the field (the officiating crew) in two of the wins. Mahomes has not been great, throwing six interceptions, and the Kansas City offense is down three playmakers after losing receivers Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco to injuries. Mahomes has been relying on his scrambling ability and utilizing mostly short throws to move the offense. The 49ers possess the defensive speed to contain Mahomes and should be smart enough to box in tight end Travis Kelce with multiple defenders.

Every handicapper with a keyboard and/or a microphone has regurgitated these trends this week — Chiefs coach Andy Reid is money off a bye (21-4), and Mahomes is money as an underdog (11-1-1 ATS). But all trends eventually come to an end, and my money is on the 49ers to get some revenge.

San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy has more weapons than Mahomes. Purdy will stretch a mediocre Kansas City pass defense by spreading the ball around to receivers Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, rookie Ricky Pearsall, and tight end George Kittle. The 49ers’ running attack — Jordan Mason has been cleared to play after suffering a shoulder injury — can take it from there and help close the deal. The Chiefs are rarely ‘dogs, and that makes them attractive to many bettors, but I believe the 49ers are favored for a reason. I bet this at -1 and would take the points out of the equation and play the moneyline at this point.

Week 7 NFL Best Bet: 49ers -125

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Mike Macdonald opened his head-coaching career 3-0, but the defensive wizard probably has had several sleepless nights in Seattle since his fast start. The Seahawks have dropped three in a row and their defense has been a problem, allowing 35.7 ppg during the skid. Macdonald will need to break his play-calling tendencies and blitz more often to put immobile Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins under pressure. On paper, this is not a great matchup for Seattle, which has a soft run defense, against Atlanta running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Still, the Falcons (4-2) feel a little fraudulent because they have wins by margins of one, two and six points — with the six-point win in overtime — and should have lost all three of those games. The road ‘dog desperately needs a win and will show up hungry. If Geno Smith (six touchdown passes, six interceptions) can avoid turnovers, the Seahawks should be in position to win in the fourth quarter, so I’ll take the points with the better coach.

Week 7 NFL Best Bet: Seahawks +3

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-3)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

The injury report and scheduling situation both favor Green Bay, which is playing at Lambeau Field for the second straight Sunday. The Texans are on the road for the second straight week, and top wideout Nico Collins remains out. Houston’s defense is riddled with important injuries to linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’oTo’o, the team’s top tacklers, and corner Kamari Lassiter and safety Jimmie Ward. After a slow start, Packers quarterback Jordan Love is finding his groove and has six touchdown passes in the past two games. Love can take advantage of a depleted defense. N

FC North teams are 18-4 ATS this season (17-3 in non-division games), including the Texans’ 34-7 loss at Minnesota in Week 3. I bet Green Bay early this week at -2.5, a number still available at the Westgate SuperBook.

Week 7 NFL Best Bet: Packers -2.5

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

Detroit’s defense will miss injured Aidan Hutchinson and the pressure he puts on the quarterback. This edge in this matchup goes to Lions quarterback Jared Goff, who’s hot. In the past two victories over Dallas and Seattle, Goff completed 36 of 43 passes for 607 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Vikings’ Sam Darnold has shown signs of regression in the past six quarters. Two weeks ago, in a win against the Jets in London, Darnold went 14-for-31 with an interception and took four sacks. Why is Minnesota (5-0 SU and ATS) only laying 1.5 points? Read between the lines — the home favorite is fragile.

Week 7 NFL Best Bet: Lions +1.5

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

It’s difficult to bet against Baltimore, arguably the best team in the NFL through six weeks. The Ravens have totaled 2,722 yards, the most in the league, with Lamar Jackson playing at a higher level than any other quarterback while Derrick Henry continues to run wild with the force of a wrecking ball. The Baltimore run defense (59 yards per game) ranks No. 1 in the league. Tampa Bay will need Baker Mayfield to move the sticks through the air, and Mayfield is capable of trading big shots with Jackson. Running the ball is not much of an option, so Mayfield (71 percent completions, 15 touchdowns) will get aggressive and use receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to stretch the field. The Bucs rank No. 2 in scoring offense (29.7 ppg). I might be a sucker, but I’ll take the field goal and hook with the home ‘dog on Monday night.

Week 7 NFL Best Bet: Buccaneers +3.5

Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 12-15-3

For more NFL Week 7 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 7 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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