VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 11

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VSiN Staff
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VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 11

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 11. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

Strategies using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 College Football Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 13 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games (records are shown heading into the 2023 season). These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.

DK Betting Splits system #1: When 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 40-47 ATS (46%). In other words, if you saw the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it was best to fade it.

System Matches (FADE ALL): BOWLING GREEN, LOUISVILLE, UNLV, IOWA STATE, OKLAHOMA STATE, CALIFORNIA, GA TECH, HOUSTON, ALABAMA, VANDERBILT, MISSISSIPPI ST, NORTHWESTERN, TEXAS STATE, GEORGIA STATE, MICHIGAN, LIBERTY, NAVY

 

DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-76 ATS (46.5%). Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it was best to fade it.

System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO, BOWLING GREEN, MIAMI (OH), OKLAHOMA STATE, HOUSTON, KANSAS, ALABAMA, GA SOUTHERN, TEXAS, NC STATE, WASHINGTON, MEMPHIS, MICHIGAN, LIBERTY

 

DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 58-85 ATS (40.6%). More recreational bettors love road favorites because they are usually the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.

System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO, BOWLING GREEN, VA TECH, IOWA STATE, OKLAHOMA STATE, ARIZONA, ALABAMA, GA SOUTHERN, TEXAS, NC STATE, TEXAS STATE, MEMPHIS, MICHIGAN, TROY, PITT, AIR FORCE

 

DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets was on road favorites for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 59-75 ATS (44.0%). Bet volume usually covers more public action, and again, recreational bettors love road favorites but don’t typically fare well long term.

System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO, BOWLING GREEN, IOWA STATE, OKLAHOMA STATE, ALABAMA, GA SOUTHERN, MARYLAND, NC STATE, TEXAS STATE, MEMPHIS, MICHIGAN, TROY, PITT, FRESNO STATE, AIR FORCE

 

DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, this majority group was 100-82 ATS (54.9%). Now, 54.9% is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of the majority handle can pay off. Remember, a higher handle feels less “public” than higher bet counts.

System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): EASTERN MICHIGAN, SOUTHERN MISS, NEW MEXICO, GA TECH, EAST CAROLINA, OLE MISS, DUKE, MINNESOTA, VANDERBILT, TEMPLE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, NORTHWESTERN, SAM HOUSTON, NEVADA, FIU, ARKANSAS STATE

 

DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, this majority group was 98-75 ATS (56.6%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #5 and suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW MEXICO, GA TECH, INDIANA, DUKE, MINNESOTA, VANDERBILT, MISSISSIPPI STATE, NORTHWESTERN, RICE, SAM HOUSTON STATE, NEVADA

 

DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the number of bets backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 season record was 72-46 (61%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): OHIO, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, W MICHIGAN, BOWLING GREEN, MIAMI (OH), TOLEDO, LA LAFAYETTE, LOUISVILLE, SMU, UNLV

 

DK Betting Splits system #8: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 100-131 ATS (43.3%). More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is the eternal equalizer.

System Matches (FADE ALL): NORTHERN ILLINOIS, OHIO, BOWLING GREEN, MIAMI (OH), LOUISVILLE, SMU, UNLV, MICHIGAN, ALABAMA, KANSAS, TULANE, ILLINOIS, LIBERTY, JAMES MADISON, ARIZONA, NC STATE, MEMPHIS, GEORGIA STATE, TROY, KANSAS STATE, FLORIDA STATE, WASHINGTON, OKLAHOMA STATE, IOWA, FIU, MINNESOTA, ARKANSAS STATE, OREGON STATE, OKLAHOMA, HOUSTON, GA SOUTHERN, OHIO STATE, TEXAS, LSU, UTSA, UCLA, AIR FORCE

 

DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority of the handle backed a team in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager, but the line moved towards the opposite team, this majority group was just 38-49 ATS (43.7%). This can be a tricky one to avoid, as it can be referred to as a trap in booking circles. The theory is that the more money a team gets on it, the more likely the line moves toward that team. This is the opposite scenario, and usually, the public loses.

System Matches (FADE ALL): NIU, W MICHIGAN, E MICHIGAN, MICHIGAN, ALABAMA, KANSAS, NEBRASKA, VANDERBILT, MEMPHIS, NEVADA, JAMES MADISON, W KENTUCKY, MINNESOTA, MISSOURI, WASHINGTON, OKLAHOMA, DUKE, TEXAS, W KENTUCKY, AIR FORCE

 

DK Betting Splits system #10: The average college football total last year was 54.5. In games where the totals reached 57 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive when the majority handle bettors favored the Under, they were relatively sharp, going 35-21 (62.5%). This is rare, as it occurred in only 56 of 776 games.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NEW MEXICO-BOISE STATE, OKLAHOMA STATE-UCF, VANDY-SOUTH CAROLINA, TEMPLE-USF, TEXAS STATE-C CAROLINA, RICE-UTSA, NEW MEXICO STATE-W KENTUCKY

 

DK Betting Splits system #11: On games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under were 15-8 (65.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this didn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority were sharp.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): BALL STATE-NIU, AKRON-MIAMI (OH), IOWA STATE-BYU, ECU-FL ATLANTIC, RUTGERS-IOWA, MARYLAND-NEBRASKA, MISS STATE-TEXAS A&M, ARIZONA STATE-UCLA, NC STATE-WAKE FOREST, NORTHWESTERN-WISCONSIN

 

DK Betting Splits system #12: On games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ supermajority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the OVER were 22-13 (62.9%). Again, not a ton of plays here, but the more public option of the number of bets was pretty good when going against the grain.

System Matches (PLAY OVER): BOWLING GREEN-KENT STATE, AKRON-MIAMI (OH)

 

DK Betting Splits system #13: On games where the handle has a majority on totals and the number of bets has the opposite majority, the majority handle plays went 112-93 (54.6%). This could be described as more sharp action being displayed by the majority handle.

System Matches:

(PLAY OVER when there are opposite majorities and HANDLE favors OVER)

(PLAY UNDER when there are opposite majorities and HANDLE favors UNDER)

 

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode and the best betting systems uncovered. This material was taken from an article published in late August. revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

 

Best & Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)

Best

* LA LAFAYETTE is 10-8 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) in revenge mode since 2016

System Match: PLAY LA LAFAYETTE (-10.5 vs Southern Miss)

 

* C MICHIGAN is 16-9 SU and 15-9 ATS (62.5%) in revenge mode since 2016

System Match: PLAY C MICHIGAN (+3 at W Michigan)

 

* BUFFALO is 13-12 SU and 17-8 ATS (68%) in revenge mode since 2016

System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+7 vs Ohio)

 

* CALIFORNIA is 16-20 SU and 21-15 ATS (58.3%) in revenge mode since 2016

System Match: PLAY CALIFORNIA (-1 vs Washington St)

 

* SOUTH FLORIDA is 4-24 SU and 18-10 ATS (64%) in revenge mode since 2016

System Match: PLAY SOUTH FLORIDA (-7 vs Temple)

 

* TULSA is 10-19 SU and 17-11 ATS (60.7%) in revenge mode since 2016

System Match: PLAY TULSA ATS (+23 at Tulane)

 

Worst

* NEW MEXICO is 6-33 SU and 13-24 ATS (35.1%) in revenge mode since 2016

System Match: FADE NEW MEXICO (+26.5 at Boise St)

 

College Football Revenge Systems

Neutral-field underdogs are great in revenge

Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 43-26 ATS (62.3%).

System Match: PLAY SYRACUSE (+2.5 vs Pittsburgh)

 

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out

Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 96-113 ATS (45.9%) since 2016.

System Match: FADE CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+3 at Western Michigan)

 

Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances

College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 85-14 SU and 66-29-4 ATS (69.5%) since 2016.

System Matches: PLAY BOWLING GREEN (-9.5 at Kent St), PLAY TEXAS (-9.5 at TCU)

 

Key stats of the team seeking revenge matter

Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 597-535 ATS (52.7%) as compared to those scoring 35 PPG or more, 354-383 ATS (48%).

System Matches (GOOD DEFENSIVE TEAMS ALLOWING <= 24 PPG): NORTHERN ILLINOIS, EASTERN MICHIGAN, MIAMI (FL), AUBURN, RUTGERS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA, TEXAS A&M, MINNESOTA, TEXAS, DUKE, PENN STATE, SYRACUSE

 

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes

Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 203-157 ATS (56.4%) since 2016.

System Matches: PLAY LA LAFAYETTE (-10.5 vs. Southern Miss), PLAY SOUTH FLORIDA (-7 vs. Temple)

 

College Football Systems Based Upon AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll.

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams

In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 164-79 SU and 140-95-8 ATS (59.6%).

System Matches (PLAY ALL): PENN ST, WASHINGTON, MISSOURI, GEORGIA

Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 99-17 SU and 73-39-4 ATS (65.2%).

System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, GEORGIA

Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 52-14 SU and 46-17-3 ATS (73%) since 2017.

System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON

 

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #4

In college football games featuring two ranked teams, with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 35-14 (71.4%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the Under record jumps to 21-6 (77.8%).

System Match: PLAY UNDER in Ole Miss-Georgia (o/u at 58.5)

 

Extreme Stat Next Game CFB Betting Systems

Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams

Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 123-168 ATS (42.3%) over the last decade-plus.

System Matches: FADE AIR FORCE (-19 at Hawaii), FADE ARMY (vs Holy Cross), FADE UTAH (+9 at Washington), FADE ARIZONA STATE (+17 at UCLA)

 

Dismal offensive performances carry over

College football teams that gained 100 yards or fewer in a game have not bounced back well in the next, going just 22-33-1 ATS (40%) in their last 56 tries.

System Match: FADE ARIZONA STATE (+17 at UCLA)

 

Not taking advantage enough of turnovers can be a red flag

CFB FBS teams that benefitted from a +5 turnover differential or greater but failed to score 44+ points in that game have responded by going just 35-52 ATS (40.2%) in their next contest since 2012.

System Match: FADE ARMY (vs. Holy Cross)

 

Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances

Over the course of the last decade, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 132-94 ATS (58.4%).

System Matches: PLAY NORTH CAROLINA (-13 vs Duke), PLAY TENNESSEE (-1.5 at Missouri)

 

Playing well offensively but losing a good sign for next outing

College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 59-38-2 ATS (60.8%) over the last 10 years.

System Match: PLAY SOUTH FLORIDA (-7 vs Temple)

 

Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum-builders

Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 69-40 ATS (63.3%) in the follow-up contest.

System Matches: PLAY NC STATE (-2.5 at Wake Forest), PLAY STANFORD (+21 at Oregon St), PLAY IOWA (-2 vs Rutgers)

 

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. APPALACHIAN STATE +2 (3.3), 2. SYRACUSE +3 (+3.1), 3(tie). DUKE +14 (+2.8) and BUFFALO +7.5 (+2.8), 5. UCONN +25.5 (+2.6), 6. RICE +14.5 (+2.3), 7. OLE MISS +10.5 (+2.1), 8. NEBRASKA +2.5 (+2.0), 9. AUBURN +3 (+1.9), 10. NEVADA +16.5 (+1.8)

 

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. SOUTH FLORIDA -7 (+6.3), 2. OREGON STATE -21 (+4.4), 3. TROY -21.5 (+3.9), 4. KANSAS -3.5 (+3.7), 5. LIBERTY -13.5 (+3.5), 6. MEMPHIS -9.5 (+3.4), 7. MIAMI (OH) -17.5 (+3.1), 8. CLEMSON -14.5 (+2.8), 9. TEXAS -9.5 (+2.6), 10. LA LAFAYETTE -10.5 (+2.5)

 

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. OLE MISS +10.5 (+7.1), 2. GA TECH +14.5 (+6.4), 3. SYRACUSE +3 (+4.5), 4. DUKE +14 (+4.0), 5. NORTH TEXAS +17 (+3.9), 6. NEW MEXICO +25 (+3.8), 7(tie). BOSTON COLLEGE +1.5 (+2.3) and WAKE FOREST +2.5 (+2.3) and CHARLOTTE +9.5 (+2.3) and BAYLOR +20.5 (+2.3)

 

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. TULANE -23 (+5.0), 2. OREGON STATE -21 (+4.7), 3. UCLA -17 (+4.3), 4. TOLEDO -19 (+4.1), 5. LIBERTY -13.5 (+3.0), 6. W KENTUCKY -4.5 (+2.7), 7. TROY -21.5 (+2.4), 8. OHIO STATE -31 (+2.2), 9. TEXAS -9.5 (+1.9), 10. LOUISVILLE -20.5 (+1.8)

 

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. PITT-SYRACUSE OVER 37.5 (+10.0), 2. RUTGERS-IOWA OVER 28.5 (+7.7), 3. TEXAS-TCU OVER 54.5 (+5.3), 4. AKRON-MIAMI (OH) OVER 41 (+4.9), 5. MIAMI (FL)-FLORIDA STATE OVER 50 (+3.8), 6. BOWLING GREEN-KENT STATE OVER 41 (+3.5), 7. MISS STATE-TEXAS A&M OVER 43 (+3.4), 8. BAYLOR-KANSAS STATE OVER 55 (+3.2), 9. FRESNO STATE-SJSU OVER 55.5 (+2.4), 10. OKLA STATE-UCF OVER 65 (+2.1)

 

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. NORTH TEXAS-SMU UNDER 68.5 (-8.2), 2. TENN-MIZZOU UNDER 58.5 (-4.4), 3. TEXAS STATE-COASTAL CAROLINA UNDER 60 (-4.0), 4. TEXAS TECH-KANSAS UNDER 60 (-3.9), 5. FLORIDA-LSU UNDER 63 (-3.8), 6. RICE-UTSA UNDER 59 (-3.0), 7. ODU-LIBERTY UNDER 59.5 (-2.2), 8. C MICH-W MICH UNDER 58 (-2.1), 9. ARK STATE-S ALABAMA UNDER 55 (-2.0), 10. DUKE-UNC UNDER 50.5 (-1.5)

 

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1(tie). UCONN +25.5 (+8.2) and MARSHALL +2.5 (+8.2), 3. USC +15.5 (+7.0), 4. SYRACUSE +3 (+6.8), 5. COLORADO +10.5 (+5.5), 6. BYU +6.5 (+5.1), 7. FLORIDA +14 (+4.7), 8. DUKE +14 (+4.6), 9. BAYLOR +20.5 (+4.4), 10. UCF +2.5 (+4.3)

 

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. W KENTUCKY -4.5 (+8.5), 2. MARYLAND -2.5 (+7.9), 3. FRESNO STATE -1 (+7.8), 4. WISCONSIN -11 (+7.5), 5. SOUTH ALABAMA -11.5 (+6.3), 6. OREGON STATE -21 (+5.5), 7. UTSA -14.5 (+5.2), 8. LA LAFAYETTE +10.5 (+4.7), 9. OKLAHOMA -12.5 (+4.0), 10. WASHINGTON -9.5 (+3.9)

 

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. ARIZONA-COLORADO OVER 54.5 (+8.1), 2. UTAH-WASHINGTON OVER 53 (+6.6), 3. PITT-SYRACUSE OVER 37.5 (+6.4), 4. MICH-PENN STATE OVER 46 (+5.2), 5. DUKE-UNC OVER 50.5 (+4.0), 6. RUTGERS-IOWA OVER 28.5 (+3.7), 7. MEM-CHARLOTTE OVER 52 (+3.4), 8. INDIANA-ILLINOIS OVER 44.5 (+3.2), 9. MARYLAND-NEBRASKA OVER 44 (+3.0), 10. USC-OREGON OVER 73.5 (+2.7)

 

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. OKLA STATE-UCF UNDER 65 (-6.2), 2. NW-WISC UNDER 43.5 (-4.6), 3. RICE-UTSA UNDER 59 (-3.2), 4. STAN-OREGON ST UNDER 54.5 (-3.1), 5(tie). N TEXAS-SMU UNDER 68.5 (-2.8) and TROY-ULM UNDER 46 (-2.8), 7. MICH STATE-OHIO ST UNDER 47 (-2.6), 8. FRESNO STATE-SJSU UNDER 55.5 (-2.3), 9. AUBURN-ARKANSAS UNDER 48 (-2.2), 10. C MICHIGAN-W MICHIGAN UNDER 58 (-2.0)

 

Top College Football Team Situational Trends

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* ARIZONA is 15-25 (37.5%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2016

System Match: FADE ARIZONA (-10 at Colorado)

 

* ARIZONA STATE is 22-11-1 (66.7%) ATS as Underdog since 2018

System Match: PLAY ARIZONA ST (+17 at UCLA)

 

* ARKANSAS is 0-10 (0.0%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2020

System Match: FADE ARKANSAS (-3 vs. Auburn)

 

* BOSTON COLLEGE is 20-8 (71.4%) ATS in conference games since 2020

System Match: PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE (-1 vs. VA Tech)

 

* BUFFALO is 18-7 (72%) ATS at home since 2019

System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (+7 vs Ohio)

 

* CALIFORNIA is 23-13 (63.9%) ATS as Underdog since 2018

System Match: PLAY CALIFORNIA (*only if they become an underdog, -1 (as of Tuesday 11/7) vs Washington State)

 

* E MICHIGAN is 35-14 (71.4%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2016

System Match: PLAY E MICHIGAN (+19 at Toledo)

 

* FLORIDA ST is 7-15 (31.8%) ATS in conference games since 2021

System Match: FADE FLORIDA ST (-14 vs Miami FL)

 

* FRESNO ST is 24-12 (66.7%) Under the total since 2021

* FRESNO ST is 18-8 (69.2%) ATS coming off SU Win since 2021

System Match: PLAY FRESNO ST (-1 at San Jose St), also PLAY UNDER in Fresno St-SJSU (o/u at 56)

 

* JAMES MADISON is 17-6 (73.9%) ATS as Favorite since 2020

System Match: PLAY JAMES MADISON (-25.5 vs UConn)

 

* KANSAS is 2-10 (16.7%) ATS as Favorite since 2018

System Match: FADE KANSAS (-3.5 vs Tx Tech)

 

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 23-11 (67.6%) Under the total since 2021

System Match: PLAY UNDER in MISSISSIPPI-TEXAS A&M (o/u at 44.5)

 

* NEBRASKA is 2-10 (16.7%) ATS at home in the last 12

System Match: FADE NEBRASKA (+1 vs Maryland)

 

* NEW MEXICO is 15-36 (29.4%) ATS in conference games since 2017

System Match: FADE NEW MEXICO (+26.5 at Boise St)

 

* OLE MISS is 6-14-1 (30%) ATS in conference games since 2021

System Match: FADE OLE MISS (+11 at Georgia)

 

* OREGON ST is 23-10 (69.7%) ATS coming off SU win since 2016

System Match: PLAY OREGON STATE (-21 vs Stanford)

 

* PENN ST is 29-10 (74.4%) ATS coming off SU win since 2019

System Match: PLAY PENN STATE (+4.5 vs Michigan)

 

* PURDUE is 15-8 (65.2%) ATS as an underdog since 2020

System Match: PLAY PURDUE (*only if they become an underdog, -1 (as of Tuesday 11/7) vs Minnesota*)

 

* SAM HOUSTON STATE is 11-3 (78.6%) ATS as underdog since 2017

System Match: PLAY SAM HOUSTON STATE (+8 at LA Tech)

 

* SAN DIEGO STATE is 38-17 (69.1%) Under the total since 2019

System Match: PLAY UNDER in SDSU-Colorado State (o/u at 47)

 

* TROY is 14-3 (82.4%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2021

System Match: PLAY TROY (-21.5 at ULM)

 

* TULANE is 38-19 (66.7%) ATS as favorite since 2014

System Match: PLAY TULANE (-23 vs Tulsa)

 

* TX-SAN ANTONIO is 2-13 (13.3%) ATS at home since 2021

System Match: FADE UTSA (-13 vs Rice)

 

* W KENTUCKY is 8-19 (29.6%) ATS as favorite since 2019

System Match: FADE W KENTUCKY (-4.5 vs New Mexico State)

 

Top College Football Head-To-Head Series Trends

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:

 

 (101) OHIO U at (102) BUFFALO

* Home teams are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the Ohio U-Buffalo series

System Match: PLAY BUFFALO ATS

 

(105) C MICHIGAN at (106) W MICHIGAN

* Road teams are on a 10-0-1 ATS streak in CMU-WMU rivalry

System Match: PLAY C MICHIGAN ATS

 

(111) AKRON at (112) MIAMI (OH)

* Road teams are on a 10-1 ATS surge in the Akron-Miami (OH) MAC series

System Match: PLAY AKRON ATS

 

(121) WYOMING at (122) UNLV

* Over the total is 13-2-1 in the last 16 games between Wyoming and UNLV

System Match: PLAY OVER the total

 

(119) NORTH TEXAS at (120) SMU

* Favorites have won the last nine SU and ATS in the UNT-SMU series

System Match: PLAY SMU ATS

 

(213) PITTSBURGH at (214) SYRACUSE

* The last six games of the PIT-SYR series in Syracuse went Under the total

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

 

(197) AUBURN at (198) ARKANSAS

* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of AUB-ARK rivalry

System Match: PLAY OVER the total

 

(209) TULSA at (210) TULANE

* Favorites are on 17-1 SU and ATS run in the Tulsa-Tulane series

System Match: PLAY TULANE ATS

 

(227) FRESNO ST at (228) SAN JOSE STATE

* The last six games of the FSU-SJSU series went Under the total

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

 

(219) FLA INTERNATIONAL at (220) MIDDLE TENN STATE

* Over the total is 12-3-1 in the last 15 of the FIU-MTSU series

System Match: PLAY OVER the total

 

(225) MICHIGAN ST at (226) OHIO ST

* OHIO STATE has won its last six ATS versus Michigan St

System Match: PLAY OHIO ST ATS

 

(187) BAYLOR at (188) KANSAS ST

* Road teams are on a 7-0 ATS streak in the Baylor-Kansas St rivalry

System Match: PLAY BAYLOR ATS

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