Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians:
The Cleveland Guardians entered their current series with the Arizona Diamondbacks with the highest home winning percentage among MLB teams. They look to keep it that way on Wednesday despite one of their lesser starting pitching options going on the mound.
Ben Lively gets the start for Cleveland and enters with a 3.42 ERA overall, but advanced numbers show he is due for regression. He allows 1.5 home runs per nine innings and has a fielding independent more than a full point higher than his ERA, which is 4.50.
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While the Guardians back up Lively with the league’s best bullpen with a 2.65 ERA entering Tuesday, the bullpen is behaving to get taxed with the bullpen having worked at least 4 2/3 innings each of the past four days entering Tuesday and now having to play a doubleheader on Tuesday
The Guardians will look to provide support at the plate with the lineup that entered Tuesday third in the American League in runs per game at home with over 4.9 runs per game.
Standing in the way of runs for the Guardians is Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who owns a 3.97 ERA despite allowing only one home run and 1.9 walks per nine innings but does see his ERA expand to 4.37 on the road.
The Diamondbacks support Pfaadt with a bullpen that has a 4.30 ERA, which ranks 23rd in the league, and an offense that leads the National League in runs per game with nearly 5.2 runs per game.
With Lively due for some regression coupled with Cleveland’s ability to put runs on the board at home, Wednesday’s series finale sets up to be a high-scoring affair.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Guardians Over 7.5 Runs
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