MLB Best Bets Today April 26
One day game and 13 night games make up the Friday April 26 MLB schedule. We’re nearly a full month into the season, as this is the 29th day of the 2024 campaign. I figured I’d take a quick look and compare offense year over year through the first four weeks of 2023 and 2024.
2024: .240/.315/.384, .313 wOBA, 22.5% K%, 8.9% BB%, 562 SB, 760 HR
Top MLB Resources:
2023: .245/.319/.402, .314 wOBA, 23.0% K%, 8.9% BB%, 537 SB, 860 HR
The biggest outliers from 2023 to 2024 are SLG and HR. There is a clear power drop-off in MLB this season.
2024:
Average Exit Velocity: 88.7 mph
Average Launch Angle: 13 degrees
Hard Hit%: 38.8%
Barrel%: 7.5%
2023:
Average Exit Velocity: 89 mph
Average Launch Angle: 12.4 degrees
Hard Hit%: 39.1%
Barrel%: 8.2%
The ball isn’t different. Hitters are getting pitched differently and the Hard Hit% and Barrel% are down. With contact authority down, we’ve seen a drop in slugging rates and home runs. Hitters will have to find a way to adjust, as teams are optimizing pitch location and pitch usage.
Also, by Statcast Pitch Type, four-seam fastballs are down from 32.3% to 31%, which will also cut down power because four-seamers are the best pitches to hit for power and the easiest to hit from a contact authority standpoint.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for April 26:
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (-130, 8.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
The vibes are not immaculate in South Florida, as the Marlins fire up a weekend set with the feisty Nationals. Anthony Maldonado will make his MLB debut in a very unfamiliar role for the Marlins and Trevor Williams will get the call for the Nats.
Maldonado has made two pro ball starts, with both of them coming in the Florida Complex League, so not even an actual game, just games at the Spring Training field. The 26-year-old Bethune-Cookman product does have solid minor league numbers, including a 2.31 ERA with a 10/4 K/BB ratio over 11.2 innings of work this season, but this is such a weird type of situation for him. We’ll see if the Marlins look for multiple innings from him.
Miami had yesterday off, but based on recent bullpen usage, they’re going to have to dust off Kyle Tyler here for some bulk innings. Tyler was recalled six days ago and hasn’t pitched. He actually hasn’t pitched since April 14 when he allowed four runs on four hits in just 3.1 innings of work. In fact, since Spring Training, Tyler has thrown a total of five innings across two appearances. He’s made seven MLB appearances over 16.1 innings and has only allowed four runs on 10 hits, but he has an 8/7 K/BB ratio.
Williams is actually off to a nice start thus far, as he’s got a 2.91 ERA with a 2.31 FIP over 21.2 innings of work. He’s struck out 18 and only walked six, including a full six innings against Houston last time out with zero walks. The 32-year-old has ramped up his slider usage this season, leading to a big increase in ground balls. The old dog has also learned some new tricks with a 26.9% CSW% (called+swinging strike percentage), which is the best mark of his career.
We’ll see how sustainable it is, but Williams has made some substantive changes to his pitch selection with a sweeper/slider mix and the new sweeper has held opposing batters to a .182 BA and a .273 SLG to this point.
The Nationals have a much stronger lineup at present than the Marlins and their bullpen also looks to be in line for a lot of positive regression with a 4.35 ERA, but a 3.40 FIP. I’d say the Nats are worth a look here at plus money, given the weird setup for the Fish this evening.
Pick: Nationals +110
Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves (-230, 8.5)
7:20 p.m. ET
Logan Allen and Chris Sale are slated to go in the only game on the card with two left-handed starters. My focus here is on Allen, who is trending in the wrong direction from a command standpoint at a really bad time because he now faces a Braves lineup that is extremely potent and very dangerous.
Allen has allowed 18 hard-hit balls in 33 batted ball events over his last two starts and 25 in 48 over his last three, which have all come at home against the White Sox, Yankees, and Athletics. He’s actually allowed seven barreled balls over his last two outings, as the Yankees and A’s combined for four homers and seven runs on 11 hits over 11 innings of work. The White Sox actually scored five runs in the first inning off of Allen before he settled in and threw three scoreless frames.
Allen has 12 strikeouts against six walks in those last three starts and has allowed 12 runs on 18 hits. He’s had a single-digit SwStr% in each of his last four starts and he has had a Chase Rate under 25% in all of them. If you can’t get the Braves to swing and miss, you are in trouble.
To this point, the Braves have a .270/337/.456 slash with a .350 wOBA and a 119 wRC+ against lefties. They also add Ozzie Albies back into the lineup today and he was off to an excellent start with a .390 wOBA and a 145 wRC+. He’s actually a career .339 hitter with a 145 wRC+ against lefties in his career (just a 99 wRC+ against RHP) and he’ll slot back into the No. 2 slot in the lineup.
It may have been the cold and may have been the struggles, but Allen’s fastball velo was also down a little in his last two starts. I think this is a really tough start and a really tough ask for him. It’s probably a tough series overall for the Guardians, as they’re stepping up in class here and a little bit over the next few weeks.
If you don’t have the Outs Recorded prop for Allen, the Braves Over 2.5 Runs (-125) for the 1st 5 is another viable option or their Over 4.5 (-130) for the full game, as Cleveland’s pen was used heavily yesterday.
Pick: Logan Allen Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-120)
New York Yankees (-125, 9) at Milwaukee Brewers
8:10 p.m. ET
The Yankees don’t go to Milwaukee very often, but they’ll take the field at American Family Field in the series lid lifter against the Brew Crew. Luis Gil and Colin Rea will be the listed hurlers here, as Gil is off to a very interesting start this season. The Yankees right-hander has a strong 2.75 ERA and a solid 2.94 FIP, but he’s walked 17 batters in 19.2 innings.
He’s also struck out 29 and hasn’t allowed a home run yet. Gil has a 21.9% Hard Hit% against and has not allowed a Barrel, despite an average launch angle of 15.8 degrees. It is one of the most incredible small sample size profiles I’ve ever seen, as his average exit velo by start is 88.3, 82.1, 88.6, and 85.8. He must be a really uncomfortable plate appearance for opposing hitters and most of his Baseball Savant numbers look really, really good, including a Pitching Run Value of 5 that ranks in the 89th percentile.
Stuff+ grades Gil as the 20th best pitcher thus far with at least 10 innings pitched and that’s a sample size of 314 hurlers. The only starters who grade better are Jared Jones, Framber Valdez, Nick Pivetta, and Bobby Miller.
Rea, meanwhile, ranks 276th in Stuff+. He’s thrown the ball well for the Brewers with a 2.08 ERA, but he has a 4.02 FIP and his 87.8% LOB% is not likely to hang around long with the complete lack of swing and miss in his arsenal. He’s had 14 strikeouts in 94 batters faced and has a 7.0% SwStr% per FanGraphs. His 38.4% Hard Hit% is around league average and he’s allowed six Barrels to this point.
I just don’t see him doing any better than an ERA in the low-to-mid 4s, which is precisely what xFIP has at 4.47 and SIERA is even higher at 4.68. Those are two pretty good run estimators of future performance based off of current numbers. He, too, has a Pitching Run Value of 5 thus far, but his xwOBA of .384 is poor and his xBA of .328 ranks in the Bottom 2% of MLB pitchers. His 6.09 xERA ranks in the 11th percentile. Gil’s 2.14 ERA ranks in the 92nd percentile.
The other thing I like about this handicap is that the Yankees bullpen is in much better shape than Milwaukee’s. The Brewers have used Joel Payamps and Trevor Megill in back-to-back days and needed five relievers on Thursday and four on Wednesday. They’re not getting a whole lot of long starts, so their relievers have been used a lot.
I’ll go ahead and lay it with the Yankees today. Shop around, as you can find this a few cents better at other shops.
Pick: Yankees -125
