MLB Best Bets Today April 30
The month of April wraps up with a full slate of games, including a doubleheader in Detroit. That gives us 16 games on April 30 and there is not a single favorite above -175 on the betting board as the morning unfolds. It should be a fun day full of competitive baseball and hopefully a positive end to the month.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for April 30:
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (-125, 7)
7:10 p.m. ET
The Cubs overcame a bit of a tough spot yesterday, picking up a 3-1 win with a late two-run homer against Edwin Diaz. Chicago had to play Sunday Night Baseball against the Red Sox and lost in extra innings prior to the short flight to LaGuardia. It was a nice win for them after getting no-hit into the eighth inning by Luis Severino.
I think they’re in a better spot and I also like the pitching matchup tonight with Javier Assad against Sean Manaea. The Cubs are second in wRC+ against lefties this season at 137, trailing only the Diamondbacks. Chicago puts a lot of balls in play against lefties and also has an above average walk rate. Those are two areas of concern for Manaea.
Manaea has struck out 27 in 24.1 innings, but he’s also surrendered 14 walks and has allowed a 43.8% Hard Hit%. His SwStr% is a little bit above the league average, but not high enough to sustain over a strikeout per inning. As teams make more contact against him, we’ll start to see the negative impacts of his high Hard Hit% against. He actually had a very low Chase Rate last time out against the Giants, but they swung and missed through pitches in the zone. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance of that from Chicago.
Assad comes in with six runs allowed on 18 hits in 27 innings of work. He doesn’t generate a ton of whiffs, but he’s got 26 K in his 27 innings because he has such good command and a lot of movement on his pitches. To this point, Assad has allowed a 27.1% Hard Hit%. He held the Astros to an 81.2 mph average exit velo last time out and three of the four hits he allowed came on soft contact.
The weather conditions could certainly help both guys here, as they both tilt towards the fly ball side, but Manaea is allowing a lot more hard contact and free passes.
With the 1st 5 at +110 and the full game lined at +105, I prefer the 1st 5, since the handicap here is Assad vs. Manaea. Also, Diaz was the only Mets reliever to work yesterday and their pen has been exceptional this season, whereas the Cubs have had a few issues.
Pick: Cubs 1st 5 (+110)
Minnesota Twins (-175, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox
7:40 p.m. ET
The Twins and White Sox will run back their April 25 pitching matchup here on April 30, as Simeon Woods-Richardson takes the hill for Minnesota and Mike Soroka gets the call for Chicago. Minnesota won the game 6-3, though it did take a little bit of time for the offense to get going against Soroka, who actually worked five shutout innings before giving up two solo homers in the sixth.
Here’s the thing, though. I am not expecting that type of performance from Soroka again. Those that have followed baseball for the last few seasons and this season know that the biggest offensive issue for the Twins is that they strike out too much. They swing and miss a lot. Per FanGraphs, the Twins have the sixth-highest SwStr% and fifth-lowest Z-Contact%. Their 24.6% K% is the sixth-highest in baseball.
In that game against Soroka, the Twins didn’t swing and miss once. Not a single time. I don’t know the answer to this question, but I imagine you’re going back a very, very, very long time for the last instance of the Twins not swinging and missing against a starter. Hell, it’s rare for any team.
Soroka generated zero whiffs. I know the Twins only scored two runs, but Soroka has more walks (17) than strikeouts (13) and has a 6.83 ERA with a 7.26 FIP. He’s an objectively bad pitcher at this stage of his career. He’s also allowing a 55.9% Pull%, which is not good at all because those walks and all the contact are going to lead to some extra-base hits as we go forward. He’s already allowed seven home runs. He’s actually running a .299 wOBA with men in scoring position over 31 PA. That’s going to change soon based on the rest of his results.
Woods-Richardson has made two MLB starts thus far and allowed three runs on nine hits in 11 innings with an 11/2 K/BB ratio. His velo is up over 2 mph this season and he’s leveraging his slider much more effectively as a swing-and-miss pitch. He only allowed an average exit velo of 86.9 mph against Chicago last time out and had a double-digit SwStr%. He’s also throwing a first-pitch strike nearly 82% of the time and that’s a good way to be effective.
Minnesota got Carlos Correa back yesterday. Jhoan Duran comes back today. This is starting to look more like the team that they expected to have coming into the season and I think they ride the wave into an emphatic win tonight.
The White Sox pen will also have to turn to some lesser guys, as Michael Kopech has worked three of the last four and John Brebbia has worked four of the last six, including yesterday’s loss. I think they’ll have a heavy lift tonight with Soroka likely struggling early and often.
I know it’s the double minus, but I truly believe Soroka’s sitting on a blow-up start here.
Pick: Twins Run Line -1.5 (-108)
Philadelphia Phillies (-142, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
Spencer Turnbull and Tyler Anderson are the listed hurlers for this one out at The Big A, but this will be a one-sided handicap for me with a look at the Phillies starter. Turnbull has been terrific in four of his five starts this season and has a 1.33 ERA with a 3.12 FIP over 27 innings of work. This may be his last start in the rotation for a little while because Taijuan Walker is back and the Phillies need to justify Walker’s higher salary.
Philadelphia is going with a six-man rotation this time through, but manager Rob Thomson said that wasn’t an option for the next little while because of off days on May 2 and May 9 that would “give their starters too much rest”. So, Turnbull will be the odd man out and be used in some sort of relief capacity in all likelihood.
There are three primary reasons why I like Turnbull Over 15.5 Outs Recorded tonight:
The first is that it is at plus money, so I think there’s some pretty good line value on it.
The second is that the Angels don’t really walk much, but they will strike out. Turnbull has 30 K in 27 IP and does have 10 BB, but the Angels have the sixth-highest K% and fifth-lowest BB% against righties at 24.9% and 7.6%, respectively. Turnbull is also allowing just a 35.4% Hard Hit%, so he’s commanded the baseball really well. Anaheim is usually a good pitching environment with that marine layer as well.
The third is that Thomson is likely to give him a little more leash here if he’s not going to start again in five or six days. Turnbull has topped out at 92 pitches, but this is a good chance to extend him a little more, especially with three middle relievers used last night.
Turnbull should feel more comfortable pitching to contact given the environment at Angel Stadium and he draws a lineup that doesn’t walk very much, so I think he has a good shot at going at least 5.1 innings here.
Pick: Spencer Turnbull Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+115)
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres (-175, 7.5)
9:40 p.m. ET
Former Padre Nick Martinez will face off against his old teammates and Yu Darvish returns from the IL for Game 2 in this series at Petco Park. One night after being stymied by Nick Lodolo, the Padres get a little bit easier of a matchup here in Martinez, who is making his second straight start and first start on the normal four days rest since April 16, 2022. He allowed four runs on seven hits and three homers in that start with four walks and just three strikeouts.
Martinez gave up five runs on 11 hits in his last start against the Phillies with a 50% Hard Hit%. One of the best attributes for Martinez this season is a 92nd percentile Chase Rate at 35.1%, but the Padres are among the most disciplined teams in baseball. If anybody can lay off pitches and draw walks against Martinez, it is San Diego, especially because they have a great handle on his arsenal after he made 110 appearances in a two-year period for them.
The Padres enter this game fifth in wRC+ against right-handers and they are now 23rd in wRC+ against lefties after what Lodolo did to them yesterday, so this is absolutely their better split.
Darvish will be on a pitch count here as he returns from an IL stint for neck discomfort. He had allowed 10 runs on 14 hits over 15 innings before hitting the injured list and had only struck out six batters against five walks in his two starts leading up to the absence. Maybe it was all about the neck pain, but he had allowed a 50% Hard Hit% through five starts, including a really good 27.3% HH% in his first start over in South Korea.
I’m not expecting Darvish to be very sharp and I would presume he’s somewhere in the 60-65 pitch range, which would bring a guy like Jhony Brito into the mix. The other thing about Darvish is that would-be base stealers are 166-for-191 against him. During his career, the league average caught stealing percentage has been 25%. His caught stealing percentage is 13%, so he doesn’t hold runners well.
The Reds are second in SB against RHP and tied for first overall with 52. They should be able to get themselves into some run-scoring situations with their baserunning prowess here.
Pick: Reds/Padres Over 7.5 (-118)
