MLB Best Bets Today August 7:
Two doubleheaders means that we have 17 games on the MLB card for Wednesday. Cleveland and the Bronx will be the host cities for the double dips, but it looks like we should get every game in today. There are a smattering of early starts, so that’ll give you a distraction from work after lunch.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 7:
Cincinnati Reds (-130, 8.5) at Miami Marlins
6:40 p.m. ET
The Reds and Marlins continue their series down in South Florida with Wednesday’s matchup between Andrew Abbott and Valente Bellozo. My focus in this one is on the rookie right-hander in Bellozo, who was just recalled on August 2 and went five innings against the Braves with a couple runs allowed on a couple hits.
Bellozo struck out five batters in that start and has a strikeout prop of 4.5 in today’s outing. He struck out eight Red Sox in his only home start this season over five innings. He gave up five runs, but had some swing-and-miss upside in the arsenal.
Bellozo only had two strikeouts over five shutout frames against the Royals, but KC is a very aggressive offense and Bellozo threw a lot more fastballs than normal in that outing. He’s leveraged his slider/cutter and changeup more in his other two outings. Both of those are pitches that the Reds have had problems with this season, as they rank 28th with -15.3 batting runs against cutters and 23rd with -5.6 batting runs on changeups per Statcast.
Through three starts, Bellozo has a Whiff% north of 20% on all four of his pitches. He doesn’t throw super hard, but he’s a small right-hander at 5-foot-10 and that is a bit of a rarity for hitters to see nowadays. He has 72 K in 66 IP in the minors, so over a strikeout per inning.
At plus money, I think this is worth a look against a Reds crew that has a 24% K% in the second half.
Pick: Valente Bellozo Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 7.5)
7:45 p.m. ET
The only scheduled night game on the interleague slate is in St. Louis between the Rays and Cardinals. It will be Taj Bradley for the AL side and Erick Fedde for the NL side, as Fedde makes his second start for the Cardinals after being acquired from the White Sox at the Trade Deadline.
It has been a little bit tough for Fedde since the All-Star Break, as he’s allowed eight Barrels in three starts and a 41.7% Hard Hit%. He has allowed 10 runs on 15 hits in 15.1 innings of work, including five runs on six hits over five innings in his first St. Louis start. For a guy struggling to find it, going to a new team that will have ideas on what to fix, how to leverage pitches in different counts, and also working with a new catcher can be a lot to take in.
Fedde is also an extreme fly ball guy and the warm weather could definitely be a detriment at this time of the year. He’s given up five homers in those three starts and has given up 16 for the season.
Bradley had a bit of a hiccup last time out against the Marlins with four runs allowed on four hits in five innings, but he had only allowed five earned runs total over his previous nine starts combined. Bradley has a 2.71 ERA with a 3.60 FIP in 86.1 innings and could very well be the next standout in the Rays rotation. He’s always had the upside, but he’s cut down on the walks and leveraged his splitter more effectively this season.
Bradley has allowed a total of three Barrels over his last six starts. With Fedde navigating a tricky transition and Bradley throwing the ball extremely well at present, the Rays 1st 5 is enticing to me.
Pick: Rays 1st 5 (-110)
