MLB Best Bets Today May 15
Big favorites and getaway day games seem to be the story of the card here on Wednesday, as we have some pretty sizable prices in some of these teams. We’ve also got a handful of early starts across the card with just six games on the docket for Thursday. So, strap in for baseball beginning at 12:35 p.m. ET and running all day long.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for May 15:
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (-135, 8)
7:40 p.m. ET
Marcus Stroman and Pablo Lopez are the listed hurlers in this one, as the Yankees look to secure a series victory with tomorrow’s getaway day game pending. I don’t know how many good matchups there are for Stroman these days, but I think this is one of them.
The Twins don’t walk much and have especially not walked much lately, posting just a 6.6% BB% over the last 14 days and a BB% under 4% in the last week. This is also a team that lives on the long ball and over 55% of Stroman’s balls in play have been hit on the ground. Minnesota ranks sixth in fly ball percentage and has the third-lowest ground ball rate. Stroman’s heavy sinker/slider combo forces teams to put the ball on the ground and that doesn’t jive for the Twins.
Lopez is definitely one of the game’s top arms, but he’s facing one of the game’s top offenses today. The Yankees rank second in wRC+ at 119. They walk a lot and don’t strike out a lot, plus they do a great job of hitting for power. The impact that Juan Soto has had on this offense cannot be overstated and it’s a sizable step up for Lopez, who has motored through whiff-prone lineups like Seattle and Boston in his last two outings.
There are some better prices out there on the Yankees if you shop around, but I think Stroman matches up well with the Twins. Both bullpens are pretty fresh here, but I do think that the Twins’ numbers are inflated a bit by some of the weaker teams that they’ve played.
Pick: Yankees +114
St. Louis Cardinals (-122, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
9:07 p.m. ET
The Cardinals and Angels wrap up their series on Wednesday night with the Redbirds in search of a much-needed sweep. It will be Lance Lynn for the visitors and Griffin Canning for the hosts, as all of the talk around the Halos is about Ron Washington’s postgame comments towards recently-acquired IF Luis Guillorme, who failed to get down a squeeze bunt on a pitch he couldn’t have reached with an oar.
Both of these teams have leadership problems at all levels, but the vibes are a bit better around the Cardinals, who have won three in a row and have found their offensive footing a bit. The Angels have dropped three straight and five of six, as life without Mike Trout continues to be tough.
Canning and the Angels were a bet for me on Friday and the bullpen blew it in a 2-1 loss. While Canning’s 5.2 shutout innings look promising on the surface, he allowed 10 hard-hit balls for a 58.8% Hard Hit% and also allowed three Barrels. He’s up to a 41.5% Hard Hit% on the season per Statcast and a 10.8% Barrel%. His command just isn’t consistently good enough. He actually did throw his bad fastball less over his last two starts and maybe he’s turning the corner in terms of pitch usage, but it may not really matter.
Canning’s xERA of 5.01 ranks in the 20th percentile with a 22nd percentile xBA at .272. He ranks in the bottom 7% in average exit velocity and grades poorly in several other metrics as well. The resurgent Cardinals lineup will hopefully take advantage of those things.
On the Lynn side, he’s given up 10 runs over his last 9.2 innings, but he’s gotten really unlucky with a 28.6% LOB% in each of those two starts. He also allowed HH% marks of 13.3% to the White Sox and 23.1% to the Brewers, so he wasn’t hit hard at all. He just fell victim to the BABIP gods. He’s had some issues with walks, but the Angels don’t draw many of those.
I also like that Lynn allowed 10 Barrels in his first four starts, but has only allowed three in his last four with a HH% of 25.4%. His contact management has been excellent of late.
St. Louis has a little bit of a ragged bullpen here, but closer Ryan Helsley should be available and the Angels pen has been quite bad of late.
Pick: Cardinals -122
