MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update
The MLB Bullpen Systems I’ve tracked for VSiN readers in recent seasons have started again for the 2024 season, and to characterize the early results, they have been “meh.” Not a whole lot of profit or loss either way.
Interestingly, we have already seen some dramatic moves up and down on my overall league bullpen rankings, as some expected weaker bullpens are off to great starts and vice versa. The AL Central bullpens have been particularly effective in the early going. As far as I’m concerned, at this point in the season, there is no reason to stray off of the strategy, as April can often usher in some surprises before the teams settle in for the long haul.
Top MLB Resources:
I aim to share regular full updates on the bullpen systems for the next six months. However, recognize that you can get the continuously updated and qualified bullpen systems, plus much more in our daily MLB Analytics Reports for the entire season.
Before we dig into the updated results of the regular season, just a reminder. I have always embraced the idea that better bullpen teams are the stronger wager when assessing the options. They just aren’t accounted for as much as starting pitching by oddsmakers, thus giving bettors value in typically at least one-third of games.
At one point last season, I was asked by readers … What’s the easiest way to use these bullpen ratings? Well, there are more profitable ways (by ROI) as shown by the drill-down systems below, but the easiest method I have now detailed in the first system below. I have called it fittingly THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM. You will see that by simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent, you would have netted +45.66 units. That is a pretty nice 2.2% return for a very simple yet very fundamentally sound methodology. The ROI follows recent seasons of similar success levels. If you compare this to the average MLB bettor betting every MLB game, the usual ROI is around -4.4%.
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to the MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Monday, April 8:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1,200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 77-69 for -12.71 units. Although a slow start, I’m by no means alarmed by this number this early in the season, and I would expect these to solidify more and more the deeper we get into the season.
BACK big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A ’23 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites proved worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle settled at +4.4%. So far in the ’24 season, the record of this angle is 9-4 for +0.27 units.
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the ’23 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! So far in ’24, these teams are off to a hot start, 8-2 for +3.84 units and an ROI of 38.4%.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was ’23 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season. This angle is 7-3 so far and has won +0.59 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in 2023 arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 16-19 record, for -1.44 units.
Worse bullpen struggled to extend winning streaks
In 2023, we found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these two-game teams have started in the opposite direction, going 13-6 for +8.44 units. The three-game teams are 6-4 for +2.99 units. I don’t expect this is continue for long because the foundation of this system is based on the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
Better bullpen teams were capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For ’24, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 10-7 for +0.62 units through Monday, April 8.
Better bullpen teams thwarted potentially lengthy losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the ’23 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2%. There were eight plays on this angle in the first week and a half of ’24 and these teams went 4-5 for -4.22 units, a slow start but nothing to suggest a shift is in order.
These simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found in the MLB Analytics Report.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Monday, April 8)
Top 5 Bullen ERAs
1. CLEVELAND: 1.18
2. DETROIT: 1.38
3. BOSTON: 1.45
4. MINNESOTA: 1.71
5. BALTIMORE: 2.15
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. TAMPA BAY: 7.36
2. COLORADO: 6.8
3. LOS ANGELES ANGELS: 6.63
4. SAN FRANCISCO: 6.1
5. PHILADELPHIA: 5.73
Top 5 Bullen WHIPs
1. CLEVELAND: 0.95
2. PITTSBURGH: 0.95
3. BALTIMORE: 0.99
4. MINNESOTA: 1.01
5. BOSTON: 1.02
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. COLORADO: 1.89
2. TAMPA BAY: 1.81
3. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.71
4. KANSAS CITY: 1.67
5. MIAMI: 1.61
Top 5 Bullen K/9 innings
1. CLEVELAND: 11.16
2. NEW YORK METS: 10.89
3. MINNESOTA: 10.79
4. PHILADELPHIA: 10.54
5. BOSTON: 10.39
Worst 5 Bullpen K/9 innings (FYI, these are very low numbers by usual standards)
1. LOS ANGELES ANGELS: 5.7
2. NEW YORK YANKEES: 6.5
3. TORONTO: 6.76
4. ATLANTA: 7.27
5. ARIZONA: 7.49
Top 5 Bullen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. BALTIMORE: 0.86
2. BOSTON: 0.93
3. MINNESOTA: 1.01
4. LOS ANGELES DODGERS: 1.02
5. PHILADELPHIA: 1.04
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 2.09
2. COLORADO: 2.05
3. TAMPA BAY: 2.04
4. WASHINGTON: 1.62
5. MIAMI: 1.6
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since opening day:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. CLEVELAND: +12 points
2. DETROIT: +9
2. BOSTON: +9
4. OAKLAND: +8
5. PITTSBURGH: +7
5. WASHINGTON: +7
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. TAMPA BAY: -20 points
2. HOUSTON: -10
2. MIAMI: -10
4. SAN FRANCISCO: -9
5. COLORADO: -7
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of April 9)
Rank — Team — Bullpen PR
1. ATLANTA: 22
2. CLEVELAND: 21
3. MINNESOTA: 19
4. LOS ANGELES DODGERS: 17
5. NEW YORK YANKEES: 14
6. BALTIMORE: 14
7. HOUSTON: 12
8. DETROIT: 11
9. SEATTLE: 11
10. PHILADELPHIA: 10
11. ARIZONA: 7
12. MILWAUKEE: 6
13. BOSTON: 5
14. NEW YORK METS: 5
15. PITTSBURGH: 5
16. ST LOUIS: 5
17. TORONTO: 4
18. SAN FRANCISCO: 3
19. CHICAGO CUBS: 1
20. TAMPA BAY: 0
21. WASHINGTON: 0
22. TEXAS: -1
23. OAKLAND: -1
24. CINCINNATI: -2
25. LOS ANGELES ANGELS: -2
26. MIAMI: -2
27. SAN DIEGO: -3
28. KANSAS CITY: -5
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -6
30. COLORADO: -18
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there is one team on a 3+ game winning streak (HOUSTON) and one team on a 4+ game skid (ARIZONA).
