Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Wild Card Preview
I’ve been wondering for a long time whether or not Major League Baseball would go back to a two-division format now that there are six teams in the playoffs and three wild cards. It wouldn’t take much to justify such a change and a great example is sitting right here in this series.
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The Rays would have been in the hypothetical East with the Orioles, but they won 99 games and Baltimore won 101. No other AL team won more than 90. However, the Rays, despite the second-best record in the regular season, are tasked with taking on the Rangers in the best-of-three Wild Card Round instead of getting a bye, which goes to the Astros.
Houston won the AL West on the final day of the regular season to send Texas out to Tampa, while the Astros enjoy the spoils of getting a bye. Let’s see how this series could shake out.
MLB Playoffs Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook
Rangers +130 / Rays -155
Rangers vs. Rays schedule and how to watch
Game 1: Tuesday October 3, 3 p.m. ET (ABC)
Game 2: Wednesday October 4, 3 p.m. ET (ABC)
Game 3: Thursday October 4, 3 p.m. ET (ABC) (if necessary)
Pitching Matchups
(will be updated as teams announce rotations)
Game 1: TBD vs. Tyler Glasnow
Game 2: TBD vs. Zach Eflin
Game 3: TBD vs. TBD (Aaron Civale?)
Rangers vs. Rays series preview
The Rangers are a really hard team to figure out as the postseason gets underway. Texas finished just 14-22 in one-run games, but beat the opponent by five or more runs 37 times, leading to a +165 run differential that has the team more like a 96-66 ballclub than a 90-72 squad. That record would have comfortably won the AL West, but Pythagorean Win-Loss does not mean Actual Record.
The Rangers have been “Team Streak” in the second half. They opened up August with eight straight wins, but also had an eight-game losing streak later in the month. They had two six-game winning streaks in September, but went 3-13 over the other 16 games. The injury to Max Scherzer really didn’t help with a depth-shy rotation and guys like Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia missed time, but the biggest story of the second half was the bullpen.
From August 1 through the end of the regular season, the Rangers pen had a 4.67 ERA with a 4.83 FIP. Compare that with Tampa Bay, who had a 3.76 ERA and a 3.37 FIP. With how specialized the playoffs are and how quickly starters get yanked in these high-leverage games, the Rays do seem to have a distinct advantage in the bullpen.
After a lull in July, the Rays ended the season on a 34-19 run. They were the best team in baseball early in the year, but July was a difficult month with an 8-16 record. Outside of that, this team has overcome a ton of injuries and adversity to get to this point. They still have Glasnow, Eflin, and Civale in the rotation, but think of where this team would be with Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen, who all missed significant time and will be out into 2024 as well.
Offensively, Texas would be perceived as having an edge, but the Rays, who play at Tropicana Field, which is one of the worst venues for hitting in all of baseball, had a higher wRC+ at 118, where 100 is league average. The Rangers were at 114. Even with the handicap of the ballpark, the Rays only hit three fewer homers and scored 21 fewer runs than the Rangers. Tampa Bay is also in the stronger division, as the AL East had the highest five-team collective win percentage in MLB history.
In a three-game sample, a lot of regular season stats can prove to be useless, but the Rays had a nearly identical offense, if not a slightly better one, allowed 51 fewer runs with a dramatically better bullpen, and played in a tougher division.
Perhaps the x-factor for the Rangers is manager Bruce Bochy, a three-time World Series winner. The Rays have the very experienced and accomplished Kevin Cash, whose quick hooks for pitchers have drawn some ire in past postseasons.
Still, I think Tampa Bay is the better team and they win this series, though -155 is a little rich for my blood. No bet from me, but I do think the Rays advance.
Catch VSiN Daily Baseball Bets and also see Adam Burke’s daily MLB best bets and picks every day throughout the MLB Playoffs.
