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MLB value plays for Friday, June 16
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Cardinals vs. Mets Total 9. Greg’s Total 8.3.
The Cardinals have dramatic home and road offensive splits, averaging just 3.9 runs per game on the road compared to 5.3 runs at home. The Mets are without MLB home run leader Pete Alonso. They face a starter in Miles Mikolas who has a 2.73 ERA over his past 11 starts and has just a 3.00 ERA in road starts this season. Mets starter Tylor Megill has been far better at home than on the road as well, posting a 3.03 ERA at home with two home runs allowed in 32.2 innings compared to six home runs surrendered in 30.1 innings on the road with an ERA of 7.42.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Total 9.5. Greg’s Total 8.8.
In this same pitching matchup a week ago with Domingo German going for the Yankees and Tanner Houck for the Red Sox, the final was 3-1 in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees back up German with the top bullpen ERA in the league. Both lineups enter struggling with the Yankees scoring four runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games without Aaron Judge while the Red Sox have plated three runs or fewer in nine of their last 12 games
Guardians vs. Diamondbacks (-140). Greg’s Line Diamondbacks -172.
Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen is having a historically good start to the season at home, giving up two earned runs or fewer in each of his first seven starts at home this season. The Guardians’ offense is last in the league in home runs and 27th in runs per game with 3.8 while the Diamondbacks are second in the National League in home batting average.
Rays vs. Padres Total 7.5. Greg’s Total 6.8.
The Padres have the best bullpen ERA among National League teams. They have Yu Darvish starting, who’s been at his best at home since arriving in San Diego with a 2.68 ERA at home compared to a 6.19 road ERA. Rays starter Shane McClanahan has allowed two runs or fewer in 12 of his 14 starts this season and faces a Padres lineup that is last in the National League in batting average.
