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MLB value plays for Tuesday, June 27
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Marlins vs. Red Sox (-115). Greg’s Line: Red Sox -147.
The Red Sox have the league’s best home batting average at .291 and are second in the league in runs per game at home with 5.9 per game compared to 4.1 runs per game on the road. Sandy Alcantara was terrific in his Cy Young Award last season, but this season has seen his strikeouts per nine innings rate fall to a career-low 7.3 and has seen his ERA balloon from 2.28 in 2022 to 5.08 this season.
Yankees (-140) vs. Athletics. Greg’s Line: Yankees -174.
The Yankees have had a tough time scoring without Aaron Judge, scoring four runs or fewer in 14 of their 18 games since he went down with a toe injury. However, they face an Athletics team that is last in the league in runs per game at home. The Yankees have the league’s best bullpen ERA, and starter Jhony Brito has allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. Athletics starter Paul Blackburn has a 7.21 ERA at home since the start of the 2022 season.
Astros (-115) vs. Cardinals. Greg’s Line: Astros -134.
The Cardinals own the second-worst home record in the National League at 14-22. They face Framber Valdez who has a 2.27 ERA with two earned runs or fewer allowed in 11 of his 15 starts this season. The Astros also back him up with a bullpen that ranks eighth in the league in bullpen ERA while the Cardinals are 2-11 in Jordan Montgomery’s last 13 starts.
Rays vs. Diamondbacks (-125). Greg’s Line: Diamondbacks: -146.
Zac Gallen has been dominant at home this season, posting a 1.00 ERA with a 9.6 strikeout-to-walk rate and the team going 7-1 in his eight home starts. The Rays are 20-17 on the road, far worse than their league-best 34-10 home record. Rays starter Taj Bradley, who has a 4.66 ERA across his past four starts, faces a Diamondbacks lineup that is third in the National League in on-base percentage and runs per game.
