Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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8:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros (-125, 8.5)
The Dodgers (62-42) just took three of four from the Giants, winning yesterday’s series finale 6-4 as -120 home favorites. On the flip side, the Astros (53-49) just dropped two of three against the Athletics but avoided the sweep by winning the finale 8-1 as -140 road favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Dodgers send out righty Gavin Stone (9-3, 3.19 ERA) and the Astros counter with lefty Framber Valdez (8-5, 3.63 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a slight -115 home favorite and Los Angeles a -105 road dog. The public is rushing to the window to back the Dodgers at a coin-flip price. However, despite 61% of bets backing Los Angeles we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Astros -115 to -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Houston, with pros fading the trendy dog Dodgers and instead laying the short chalk with the Astros at home. Interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous year are 87-48 (64%) with a 6% ROI this season. Houston also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Astros were off yesterday while the Dodgers played in Los Angeles and now have to travel. Stone has a 6.39 ERA in three July starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 12.2 innings pitched. The Astros are 5-0 in Valdez’s last five starts. He has a 2.89 ERA in three July starts, allowing only 6 earned runs in 18.2 innings pitched.
8:15 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals (-165, 7.5)
The Nationals (47-56) just get swept by the Padres, losing yesterday’s series finale (and getting no-hit) 3-0 as +135 home dogs. Similarly, the Cardinals (53-49) just dropped two of three against the Pirates, losing the series finale 5-0 as -110 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Nationals start lefty MacKenzie Gore (6-8, 4.20 ERA) and the Cardinals go with righty Sonny Gray (10-6, 3.54 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -150 home favorite and Washington a +135 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the moderately expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Cardinals, steaming St. Louis up from -150 to -165. The Cardinals are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating a heavy dose of both public and sharp support in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites receiving steam 10-cents or more playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year are 177-108 (62%) with a 1% ROI this season. The Cardinals also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as they were off yesterday while the Nationals hosted the Padres and now must travel. St. Louis has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Gore has a 7.47 ERA in four July starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched. Gray has a 2.14 ERA at home compared to 5.29 on the road. The Cardinals are 3-1 against the Nationals this season. St. Louis is 26-22 at home. Washington is 24-29 on the road.
10:15 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (-180, 8)
The Rockies (38-65) just took two of three against the Red Sox, winning the series finale 20-7 as +125 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Giants (49-55) just dropped three of four against the Dodgers, losing the series finale 6-4 as +110 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Rockies turn to lefty Kyle Freeland (2-3, 5.63 ERA) and the Giants tap fellow southpaw Kyle Harrison (5-4, 3.86 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -165 home favorite and Colorado a +150 road dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Giants at home, steaming San Francisco up from -165 to -180. The Giants are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating lopsided support from both Pros and Joes in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 337-225 (60%) with a 2% ROI this season. Favorites receiving steam 10-cents or more playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year are 177-108 (62%) with a 1% ROI this season. When two sub .500 teams face off, the favorite is 204-139 (59%) with a 1% ROI. San Francisco has correlative betting value as a larger favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Giants are 6-3 against the Rockies this season. Colorado is 14-36 on the road, second worst in MLB. San Francisco is 28-22 at home. The Giants are hitting .260 against lefties, 7th best in MLB. The Rockies are hitting .244 against lefties, ranking 18th. Freeland has a 9.38 ERA on the road compared to 1.88 at home.
