Today a new week begins with a 10-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets (-135, 8.5)
The Orioles (73-52) just split a four-game series against the Red Sox, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-2 as -125 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Mets (64-60) just took two of three against the Marlins but failed to earn the sweep by losing 3-2 yesterday as -190 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Orioles hand the ball to lefty Trevor Rogers (2-11, 4.89 ERA) and the Mets counter with fellow southpaw David Peterson (7-1, 3.04 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -125 home favorite and Baltimore a +110 road dog. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the plus money with Baltimore. However, despite 65% of moneyline bets taking the Orioles we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Mets -125 to -135. This signals sharp reverse line movement on New York, with pros fading the trendy dog Orioles and instead laying the short chalk with the Mets at home. New York is receiving 35% of moneyline bets and 45% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split as well as a 10-cent steam move in their direction. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 398-277 (59%) with a 1% ROI this season. Rogers has a 7.53 ERA in three starts since joining Baltimore at the trade deadline, allowing 12 earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched. Peterson has a 1.56 ERA in three August starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 17.1 innings pitched. New York is 10-2 in his last 12 starts.
8:05 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers (-150, 8.5)
The Pirates (58-65) just took two of three against the Mariners but failed to earn the sweep by losing 10-3 yesterday as +150 home dogs. On the flip side, the Rangers (57-68) just dropped three of four against the Twins but avoided the sweep with a 6-5 win in extra innings yesterday, cashing as -110 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Pirates start righty Luis Ortiz (5-3, 3.41 ERA) and the Rangers go with fellow righty Dane Dunning (4-7, 4.92 ERA). This line opened with Texas listed as a -125 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +110 road dog. Sharps have laid the modest chalk with the Rangers at home, steaming Texas up from -125 to -150. The Rangers are receiving 66% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a notable 25-cent steam move in their favor. When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the favorite is 230-159 (59%) with a 1% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites who made the postseason the previous year are 98-59 (62%) with a 3% ROI. Texas has the edge at the plate, hitting .239 with 136 homers and 531 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .235 with 123 homers and 511 runs scored. The Pirates are 29-33 on the road. The Rangers are 32-30 at home. Ortiz has a 6.61 ERA in three August starts (all losses), allowing 12 earned runs in 16.1 innings pitched. He has a 5.32 ERA at night compared to 1.76 in the day. The Rangers are hitting .264 over their last 10 games compared to .250 for the Pirates.
8:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (-150, 8)
The Red Sox (65-58) just split a four-game series against the Orioles, losing 4-2 yesterday as +110 road dogs. Conversely, the Astros (67-56) just took two of three against the White Sox, winning 2-0 yesterday as hefty -375 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Red Sox send out righty Tanner Houck (8-8, 3.01 ERA) and the Astros tap lefty Yusei Kikuchi (6-9, 4.49 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -125 home favorite and Boston a +110 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Astros laying inexpensive chalk at home, steaming Houston up from -125 to -150. The Astros are only receiving 57% of moneyline bets, signaling a slight public lean but also heavy sharp action in the form of a 25-cent steam move in their favor. Houston has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Astros also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored also more likely to come from the team who is expected to win. Houston is 3-0 against Boston this season. The Red Sox are 0-5 in Houck’s last five starts. He has a 4.58 ERA in three August starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 17.2 innings pitched. The Astros are 3-0 in Kikuchi’s three starts since being acquired at the trade deadline. He has a 2.70 ERA, allowing only 5 earned runs in 16.2 innings pitched with Houston. The Astros have a big edge in the bullpen, sporting an ERA on 3.58 vs 4.45 for the Red Sox.
