Happy Labor Day! Today we have an 11-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:50 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays (-110, 8)
The Twins (74-62) just took two of three against the Blue Jays, winning 4-3 yesterday as -275 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rays (67-69) just dropped two of three against the Padres, losing 4-3 yesterday as +105 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Twins hand the ball to righty Simeon Woods Richardson (5-3, 3.85 ERA) and the Rays counter with fellow righty Zack Littell (5-8, 3.89 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -115 road favorite and Tampa Bay a -105 home dog. The public is all over the Twins, who have a far better won-loss record and are laying a short chalk price. However, despite 66% of moneyline bets taking Minnesota we’ve seen this line fall away from the Twins (-115 to -110) and toward the Rays (-105 to -110). This signals sharp reverse line movement on Tampa Bay, as the line has moved in their favorite and become a pick’em game despite the Rays only receiving 34% of moneyline bets. Woods Richardson has a 4.06 ERA on the road compared to 3.64 at home. Littell posted a 1.72 ERA in three August starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched. He has a 2.84 ERA at home compared to 5.37 on the road. Tampa Bay is 2-1 against Minnesota this season.
7:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at New York Mets (-120, 8)
The Red Sox (70-67) just dropped two of three against the Tigers, losing 4-1 yesterday as -105 road dogs. On the other hand, the Mets (73-64) just swept the White Sox, winning 2-0 yesterday as -175 road favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Red Sox start righty Brayan Bello (12-6, 4.66 ERA) and the Mets go with fellow righty Luis Severino (9-6, 3.96 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -125 home favorite and Boston a +110 road dog. The public is laying the short chalk with the Mets at home. However, despite receiving 61% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Mets fall from -125 to -120. This signals wiseguy action in favor of the Red Sox (+110 to +105), as the the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular side. Boston is receiving 39% of moneyline bets but 45% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Red Sox are 33-32 (51%) with a 13% ROI as a dog this season, the 7th best dog team in MLB. Boston is 19-15 (56%) with a 22% ROI as a dog against teams who missed the playoffs the previous year. The Red Sox have the better offense, hitting .256 with 658 runs scored compared to the Mets hitting .249 with 651 runs scored. Bello posted a 3.00 ERA in five August starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 30 innings pitched. Boston is 9-2 in his last 11 starts. Severino posted a 4.08 ERA in five August starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 28.2 innings pitched. New York is 2-4 in his last six starts. The Red Sox are hitting .262 against righties, 3rd best in MLB. The Mets are hitting .246 against righties, ranking 15th.
7:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (-145, 7.5)
The Pirates (63-73) just lost two of three against the Guardians, falling 6-1 yesterday as +130 road dogs. Conversely, the Cubs (71-66) just swept the Nationals, cruising 14-1 yesterday as -125 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates send out righty Jared Jones (5-7, 3.88 ERA) and the Cubs turn to fellow righty Jameson Taillon (9-8, 3.85 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -135 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +120 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the red-hot Cubs laying modest home chalk, steaming Chicago up from -135 to -145. The Cubs are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. The Cubs have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Chicago has the superior offense, hitting .240 with 145 homers and 626 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .236 with 134 homers and 572 runs scored. Jones just faced the Cubs his last time out, giving up 5 earned runs in 4 innings pitched in a 9-5 loss. Taillon has a 2.92 ERA at home compared to 4.72 on the road. Pittsburgh is 31-37 on the road. Chicago is 36-29 at home. The Cubs are 9-1 in their last ten games, hitting .324 with a 4.65 ERA. The Pirates are 4-6 over their last ten games, hitting .260 with a 6.85 ERA.
