Today we kickoff Memorial Day weekend with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at New York Mets (-140, 8)
The Giants (26-26) rallied for an 8-7 win in last night’s series opener, cashing as +125 road dogs. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Giants go with righty Jordan Hicks (4-1, 2.38 ERA) and the Mets (21-29) send out fellow righty Luis Severino (2-2, 3.48 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -120 home favorite and San Francisco a +110 road dog. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re scooping up the plus money with San Francisco. However, despite 60% of moneyline bets backing the Giants we’ve seen this line move further toward New York (-120 to -140). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Mets, with pros laying the chalk with the unpopular home favorite. New York has notable “buy low, sell high” value as the Mets have lost six of their last seven games while the Giants have won seven of their last eight games. Favorites off a loss against an opponent off a win, like the Mets here, are 161-106 (60%) with a 4% ROI this season. New York also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win. Severino has pitched well at home this season, sporting an ERA of 2.17 in five Citi Field starts. Meanwhile, Hicks has been worse on the road (3.32 ERA) compared to at home (1.85 ERA).
4:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays (-115, 8)
The Royals (33-19) won last night’s series opener 8-1, taking care of business as -120 road favorites. In this late afternoon rematch, the Royals start righty Brady Singer (4-2, 2.70 ERA) and the Rays (25-27) go with fellow righty Aaron Civale (2-4, 5.92 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -120 home favorite and Kansas City a +100 road dog. We’ve seen the line fall away from the Rays (-120 to -115) and toward the Royals (+100 to -105), signaling smart money backing Kansas City at a cheap road dog price. Essentially, smart Royals money is moving this game toward a pick’em. The Royals are receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 5-cent line move in their favor. Kansas City has the better bats, hitting .252 with 52 homers and 255 runs scored compared to Tampa Bay hitting .237 with 42 homers and 206 runs scored. Singer has a 2.82 ERA in four May starts (three of them wins), allowing only 7 earned runs over 22.1 innings pitched. On the other hand, Civale has a 7.32 ERA in four May starts (three of them losses), giving up 16 earned runs over 19.2 innings pitched. The Royals are 8-2 over their last ten games, hitting .288 with a 3.07 team ERA. The Rays are 4-6 over their last ten games hitting only .204 with a 4.65 team ERA.
9:38 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (-135, 8) at Los Angeles Angels
The Guardians (34-17) dominated last night’s series opener 10-4, cruising as as a -110 road pick’em. In tonight’s rematch, the Guardians hand the ball to righty Tanner Bibee (2-1, 3.93 ERA) and the Angels (20-31) counter with fellow righty Jose Soriano (2-4, 3.30 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -120 road favorite and Los Angeles a +110 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Guardians laying a short chalk price, steaming Cleveland up from -120 to -135. The Guardians are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars, signaling a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Road favorites are 150-109 (58%) with a 3% ROI this season. Cleveland is 23-8 (74%) with a 30% ROI as a favorite this season, the best chalk team in MLB. The Guardians has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Guardians have the far better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.53 (the best in MLB), while the Angels sit at 4.90 (3rd worst in MLB). Cleveland has won three straight starts made by Bibee. He has a 1.89 ERA on the road (compared to 6.23 at home). Soriano has a 7.07 ERA at home (compared to 1.67 on the road).
