Today the weekend wraps up with a 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:05 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-130, 8.5) at St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals (20-25) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning Friday night’s opener 10-6 as -110 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-2 as +100 home dogs. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Red Sox (22-24) hand the ball to righty Nick Pivetta (1-2, 3.48 ERA) and the Cardinals go with lefty Matthew Liberatore (1-1, 4.56 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -110 odds. Wiseguys have gotten down on Boston to avoid the sweep, steaming the Red Sox up from -110 to -130. Boston is receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars, signaling a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Red Sox have the better bats, hitting .243 with 47 homers and 196 runs scored compared to the Cardinals hitting .233 with 37 homers and 172 runs scored. Road favorites off a loss, like Boston here, are 57-30 (66%) with a 14% ROI this season. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 70-48 (59%) with an 11% ROI. Favorites with 10-cents of steam of more playing a team who missed the playoffs the previous season are 74-40 (65%) with a 5% ROI. Boston also has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Liberatore has a 7.56 ERA in the month of May, allowing 7 earned runs over 8.1 innings pitched.
1:37 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (-115, 8)
The Rays (25-22) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 4-3 as +135 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 5-4 as +120 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Rays start righty Aaron Civale (2-3, 5.83 ERA) and the Blue Jays (19-25) counter with fellow righty Alek Manoah (0-1, 4.91 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -115 road favorite and Toronto a -105 home dog. The public is riding the hot hand and laying the short chalk with the Rays to complete the sweep. However, despite Tampa Bay receiving 60% of moneyline bets we’ve seen this line completely flip to Blue Jays -115. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on the Blue Jays, with pros backing the unpopular home team. Favorites off a loss, like the Jays here, are 166-113 (60%) with a 3% ROI this season. We’ve also seen this total fall from 8.5 to 8. When the total falls at least a half run, favorites have gone 129-80 (62%) with a 5% ROI. Civale has a 7.53 ERA in the month of May, allowing 12 earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched. Civale has a 7.58 ERA on the road compared to 4.61 at home. Manoah pitched well his last time out, going 7 innings and giving up zero earned runs and only allowing three hits against the Twins.
4:05 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (-200, 7.5)
The Giants (22-25) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 10-5 as -135 home favorites and then rolling again yesterday 14-4 as -170 home favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Rockies (15-30) send out righty Dakota Hudson (1-6, 6.13 ERA) and the Giants rebuttal with fellow righty Jordan Hicks (3-1, 2.44 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -175 home favorite and Colorado a +160 road dog. Sharps are expecting the Giants to complete the sweep and have steamed San Francisco up from -175 to -200. The Giants are receiving roughly 85% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both Pros and Joes in addition to a notable 25-cent steam move in their favor. The Giants have correlative betting value as a larger favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Colorado is just 6-18 on the road this season, the second worst road record in MLB ahead of only the White Sox (4-18). The Giants are 14-10 at home. San Francisco is 4-1 against Colorado this season. Hudson pitched against the Giants two starts ago, allowing 4 runs in 3.2 innings in a 5-0 loss. Meanwhile, Hicks has a 1.86 ERA in five home starts this season. He went five innings and allowed three earned runs in an 8-6 win over the Rockies earlier this month.
