The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, April 10, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

Top MLB Resources:

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-218 vs MIA), PLAY TEXAS (-192 vs OAK)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL):SAN DIEGO (-142 vs CHC), CINCINNATI (-135 vs MIL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-180 at MIN), NY YANKEES (-218 vs MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in PHI-STL (o/u at 7.5), PLAY UNDER in CWS-CLE (o/u at 7.5)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well since a lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-205 vs WSH), FADE SAN DIEGO (-142 vs CHC), FADE CINCINNATI (-135 vs MIL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-180 at MIN), PHILADELPHIA (-142 at STL), SEATTLE (-110 at TOR), ARIZONA (-135 at COL), TAMPA BAY (-135 at LAA), BALTIMORE (-102 at BOS), HOUSTON (-120 at KC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND RL, NY YANKEES RL, TEXAS RL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 (through Monday, April 9), they are 77-69 for -12.71 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA, CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, SEATTLE, TAMPA BAY, CLEVELAND, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, NY YANKEES

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are off to a hot start, 8-3 for +1.86 units.
System Matches: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-205 vs WSH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites proved worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle settled at +4.4%. So far in the ’24 season, the record of this angle is 11-6 for -2.23 units.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-245 vs. CWS), PLAY NY YANKEES (-218 vs MIA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in 2023 arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the ’24 season, these teams produced a 19-21 record for -0.18 units.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at SD), PLAY MILWAUKEE (+114 at CIN), PLAY BALTIMORE (-102 at BOS), PLAY MINNESOTA (+140 vs LAD)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, we found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these two-game teams have started in the opposite direction, going 15-7 for +10.78 units. The three-game teams are 7-5 for +2.79 units. I don’t expect this is continue for long because the foundation of this system is based on the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE TORONTO (-110 vs SEA), FADE LA DODGERS (-166 at MIN)
3+ games – FADE WASHINGTON (+170 at SF), FADE KANSAS CITY (+100 vs HOU)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 11-8 for -0.83 units.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-218 vs MIA)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2%. For 2024, these teams are 6-6 for -3.22 units, a slow start but nothing to suggest a shift is in order.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (+140 vs LAD), PLAY SEATTLE (-112 at TOR)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1450-1362 (51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -182.31 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+114 at CIN)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1302-1704 (43.3%) for -175.17 units and an R.O.I. of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+180 at NYY), PHILADELPHIA (-142 at STL)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2927-2557 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -380.97 units and an R.O.I. of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-245 vs. CWS), TORONTO (-110 vs. SEA), CINCINNATI (-135 vs. MIL), ATLANTA (-166 vs. NYM)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 823-704 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +24.88 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-142 vs CHC), BOSTON (-118 vs BAL)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 418-348 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.05 units, for a R.O.I. of 3.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-205 vs WSH)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 133-107 run (+52.30 units, ROI: 21.8%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (+150 vs LAD)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 118-85 (+20.05 units, ROI: 9.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+100 vs HOU)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 148-98 in their last 246 tries (+21.47 units, ROI: 8.7%).
System Matches: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+100 vs HOU)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS +130 (+19 diff), WASHINGTON +170 (+22 diff), LA ANGELS +114 (+24 diff), OAKLAND +160 (+21 diff), MINNESOTA +140 (+18 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIL-CIN OVER 8.5 (+0.8), AZ-COL OVER 11 (+0.6), PHI-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.5), CHC-SD OVER 8 (+0.5), BAL-BOS OVER 9 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-KC UNDER 9.5 (-1.3), NYM-ATL UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), OAK-TEX UNDER 9 (-0.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(951) PHILADELPHIA (5-6) at (952) ST LOUIS (6-6)
Trend: Lance Lynn is 16-6 (+8.30 units) within line range of -180 or worse in home day games in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+130 vs PHI)

(953) ARIZONA (5-7) at (954) COLORADO (3-9)
Trend: Colorado is 6-1 (+6.15 units) vs Arizona with starter Austin Gomber in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+114 vs AZ)

Trend: Colorado was 7-4 (+5.35 units) during the DAY last season with starter Austin Gomber (1-0, +1.40 units this season)
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+114 vs AZ)

(955) WASHINGTON (5-6) at (956) SAN FRANCISCO (4-8)
Trend: Washington is 9-1 (+8.35 units) in day games against teams with a <=44% win pct with starter Patrick Corbin in last five season
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+170 at SF)

(957) CHICAGO-NL (7-4) at (958) SAN DIEGO (6-8)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 3-11 (-7.75 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at SD)

(959) MILWAUKEE (7-3) at (960) CINCINNATI (6-5)
Trend: Milwaukee was 10-3 (+7.25 units) in night starts by Wade Miley last season
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+114 at CIN)

Trend: Hunter Greene is 0-8 (-8.50 units) in matchup vs. MIL/PIT specifically
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-135 vs MIL)

(961) NEW YORK-NL (4-7) at (962) ATLANTA (7-3)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 0-5 (-5.55 units) in the last five starts vs Atlanta
System Match: FADE NY METS (+136 at ATL)

(963) SEATTLE (4-8) at (964) TORONTO (6-6)
Trend: Seattle is 27-12 (+20.03 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (*if they become an underdog at TOR, -110 currently)

(973) OAKLAND (4-7) at (974) TEXAS (6-5)
Trend: Ross Stripling is 3-8 (-4.30 units) as a night time underdog in last five seasons
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+160 at TEX)

Series #6: Chi White Sox at Cleveland, Mon 4/8-Wed 4/10, Tue 7/2-Thu 7/4
Trend: Under the total is 14-4 (77.8%, +9.68 units) in the last 18 games between the White Sox & Guardians in Cleveland
– The R.O.I. on this trend is 53.8%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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