VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Saturday, September 2
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Saturday, September 2, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, LA ANGELS, TAMPA BAY, MINNESOTA, BOSTON, DETROIT, SEATTLE, BALTIMORE
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Friday 9/1 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 131-91 record, but for -87.39 units. This is an R.O.I. of -40%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two. Last week this angle was 9-7 for -8.57 units, another huge week of success fading these teams.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE TORONTO
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 125-42 for +32.75 units as of Friday, September 1. This coming after an 8-1 performance last week. In analyzing my own strategies for wagering games, I kept realizing that I was rarely backing teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc., and not fading teams like Oakland, Kansas City, Colorado, etc., enough. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +19.6%! Since my introduction of this system two weeks ago, the results are 14-1 for +11.4 units, with Colorado’s upset of Baltimore on Sunday snapping the 14-game winning streak.
System Match: BOSTON
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 62-59 for -70.19 units! This angle was 5-3 last week and again lost -2.1 units. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -58%!
System Match: FADE TORONTO
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ’em). After a fine week of 12-10 (+3.65 units), moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 291-294 for +66.23 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.3%!
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. That strategy fared well again last week. After a 5-11 (-5.25 units) week, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 199-204 for -36.76 units, an R.O.I. of -9.1%. After a 3-5 result (-2.61 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 76-100 for -26.80 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -15.2%.
System Matches: 2-game – FADE NY METS
3+ games – FADE ATLANTA, FADE CLEVELAND
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, I have not found anything significant on the two-game data, although these did do OK last week. However, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 199-133 for +22.26 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 6.7%. These better bullpen teams had a negative week though, with -1.2 units on a 10-7 performance.
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/21 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 207-159 for +7.33 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a winning 7-5 week and have now gone 102-68 for +22.28 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 13.1% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 2-game – LA DODGERS, BALTIMORE
3+ games – BOSTON
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1432-1337 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.31 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE TORONTO, FADE OAKLAND, FADE COLORADO
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE SEATTLE, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE BOSTON, FADE LA ANGELS, FADE BALTIMORE
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE COLORADO, FADE OAKLAND, FADE SAN DIEGO
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 795-667 (54.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +41.95 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.9%.
System Matches: TEXAS, HOUSTON
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 235-188 (55.6%) for +46.35 units and an R.O.I. of 11% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match: COLORADO
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 66-51 outright (+7.79 units, ROI: 6.7%).
System Match: BOSTON
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 141-87 in their last 228 tries (+26.88 units, ROI: 11.8%).
System Matches: ATLANTA
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI (+17), PITTSBURGH (+44), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+16), MINNESOTA (+37)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI (+22), SEATTLE (+46), BALTIMORE (+23), TORONTO (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS-OAKLAND OVER 8 (+1.0), DETROIT-CHICAGO WHITE SOX OVER 8.5 (+0.8), NY YANKEES-HOUSTON OVER 8.5 (+0.5), TORONTO-COLORADO OVER 12 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS-CINCINNATI UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), SAN FRANCISCO-SAN DIEGO UNDER 8 (-0.5)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) MIAMI (68-67) at (952) WASHINGTON (62-74)
Trend: Miami good against Washington this season (9-2 record)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Washington profitable as ML underdog (54-67, +20.81 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (28-38, -1.52 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington better during the DAY (29-28, +16.84 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
(953) CHICAGO-NL (72-63) at (954) CINCINNATI (70-67)
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES trending OVER (8-3 OVER on season)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago better at NIGHT (41-35, +2.82 units)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (45-37, +15.20 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES is (CIN 6 – CHI 5)
(955) PHILADELPHIA (74-60) at (956) MILWAUKEE (75-59)
Trend: Philadelphia not as good bet at NIGHT (42-39, -9.99 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (58-38, +16.77 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee not as good against NL East/West (24-28, -5.00 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trends UNDER as ML underdog (19-36-2 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(957) PITTSBURGH (62-73) at (958) ST LOUIS (58-77)
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD Pittsburgh has 8-3 record vs. St. Louis this season
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (46-32 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER against LH starters (25-16 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: St. Louis not good at NIGHT (32-55, -35.59 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St. Louis slight OVER in NIGHT games (34-30 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(959) SAN FRANCISCO (70-65) at (960) SAN DIEGO (63-73)
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (42-35, +2.62 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (30-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER a couple of ways (37-45 O/U at NIGHT, 27-37 O/U at HOME)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: BOTH teams have better splits against LH starters
(961) ATLANTA (89-45) at (962) LOS ANGELES-NL (83-51)
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL teams (63-25, +20.92 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER multiple ways (34-19 O/U vs NL Central/West, 49-39 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAD good at HOME (46-23, +8.42 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (63-31, +16.50 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(963) LOS ANGELES-AL (64-71) at (964) OAKLAND (40-95)
Trend: LAA trending OVER in division games (24-13 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Oakland pretty good with RHP Paul Blackburn starting (5-2 in L7 starts)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland bad during the DAY (9-45, -30.08 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
(965) TAMPA BAY (82-53) at (966) CLEVELAND (65-70)
Trend: Tampa Bay good against LH starters (20-7, +10.60 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay slight UNDER in AWAY games (28-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland not great as ML underdog (26-35, -2.61 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: Cleveland heavy UNDER at HOME (21-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(967) BOSTON (69-66) at (968) KANSAS CITY (42-94)
Trend: Boston pretty good against AL Central/West (30-26 record)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston more OVER against RH starters (54-41 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Kansas City trending OVER a couple of ways (36-29 O/U at HOME, 29-21 O/U vs AL East/West)
System Match: OVER
(969) DETROIT (61-74) at (970) CHICAGO-AL (53-82)
Trend: Detroit more OVER in NIGHT games (37-31 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago bad against RH starters (39-62, -21.12 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
(971) NEW YORK-AL (66-69) at (972) HOUSTON (77-59)
Trend: NYY bad at NIGHT (39-47, -14.93 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: Houston better at NIGHT (52-38 record)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston trending OVER at HOME (37-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAY BELOW
(973) MINNESOTA (70-65) at (974) TEXAS (75-59)
Trend: Minnesota not great on the ROAD (30-36, -10.07 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: Texas good against AL Central/East (32-20, +6.43 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas good against LH starters (24-13, +5.88 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas slight OVER at NIGHT (42-37 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(975) SEATTLE (76-58) at (976) NEW YORK-NL (62-73)
Trend: Seattle trends UNDER against LH starters (13-19 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Seattle slight UNDER in NL games (16-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM not great against AL teams (17-24, -13.25 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (21-42 O/U!)
System Match: UNDER
(977) BALTIMORE (83-51) at (978) ARIZONA (70-65)
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER on the ROAD (34-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Arizona pretty good at NIGHT (46-40, +7.68 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trends UNDER at HOME (25-38 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(979) TORONTO (74-61) at (980) COLORADO (49-85)
Trend: Toronto good in interleague play (29-15, +9.53 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER at NIGHT (27-48 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado trending UNDER against LH starters (15-26 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #14: NY Yankees at Houston, Friday 9/1-Sun 9/3
Trend: NY YANKEES are 3-9 (25%, -6.45 units) in their last 12 games vs. Houston
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -53.8%
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Monday 9/4)
