VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Tuesday, October 24
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Tuesday, October 24, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): PHILADELPHIA
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Coming off wins/losses
HOME TEAMS coming off a LOSS in a series game have been good bounce-back options on the run line, going 17-17 SU (-3.82 units, ROI: -11.2%) but 19-15 on run lines (6.85 units, ROI: 23.8%) in their last 34 tries.
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
Series wins status
HOME FIELD has proven advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 75-58 SU (-3.72 units, ROI: -2.8%) and 70-63 on run lines (17.08 units, ROI: 12.8%) since 2015.
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 40-50 SU (-28.74 units, ROI: -31.9%) and 28-62 on run lines (-25.40 units, ROI: -28.2%) since 2012.
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 39-30 SU (16.44 units, ROI: 23.8%) and 44-25 on run lines (12.60 units, ROI: 18.3%) in playoff games.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
LCS Round Angles
If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 56-22 (71.8%) for +20.05 units since 2000, an ROI of 25.7%!
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, going 38-30 (+17.7 units, ROI: 26%) since 2018.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA
Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 38-56 SU (-21.56 units, ROI: -22.9%).
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Game 7 home teams have won four of the last six tries since 2007 (+1.75 units, ROI: 29.2%), adding a 4-2 (+2.45 units. ROI: 40.8%) record on run lines.
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
Not surprisingly, UNDERS has been the total of choice in Game 7s recently, with that option on totals going 7-3 (+3.57 units, ROI: 35.7%) in L10.
System Match: PLAY UNDER in ARI-PHI (o/u at 8)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (8 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA +145 (+8 difference)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.2 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA-PHILADELPHIA OVER 8 (+0.2 difference)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(937) ARIZONA (92-81) at (938) PHILADELPHIA (98-76)
Trend: Arizona good vs. LH starters (31-21, +9.72 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER vs LH starters (21-29 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona won Game 3 with these same starting pitchers (both pitchers had < 4 hits allowed in over 5 IP)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: ROAD teams are 2-4 on the run line in this postseason series
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: Philadelphia dominant at HOME (6-1 this postseason)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good record vs. RH starters (66-53)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia very slight UNDER at NIGHT (48-52 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Philadelphia slightly leading season series (7-6 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: ARIZONA is 1-0 in postseason Game 7s while PHILADELPHIA has never played in a Game 7
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
