VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Wednesday, August 2
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, August 2, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN FRANCISCO, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE, ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
Now, in games this season through Sunday, July 30, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 184-104 record, but for -55.74 units.
System Matches: FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE NY METS, FADE LA DODGERS
Better bullpen underdog teams have been strong out of the second-half gate
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a mediocre 12-15 (-1.26 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 245-251 for +53.21 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.7%!
System Matches: BALTIMORE, PITTSBURGH
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After a 6-9 (-1.93 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 170-166 for -33.52 units, an R.O.I. of -10%. After a 3-4 result (-1.14 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 63-80 for -21.25 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.9%.
3+ Game Winning Streaks:
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY, TAMPA BAY
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 163-103 for +31.21 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 11.7%.
System Matches: BALTIMORE, PITTSBURGH
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since July 24 when on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 166-127 for +11.2 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 80-52 for +22.19 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 16.8% but it was over 50% just a few weeks ago. We’ll continue to track this hoping it turns back around soon.
System Matches: NY YANKEES
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 302-268 (53.4%) for +48.11 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 8.4%.
System Match: TORONTO
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored 9 runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE,
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE DETROIT, FADE LA ANGELS, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE CLEVELAND
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE COLORADO, FADE LA DODGERS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 783-654 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.54 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Match: TEXAS
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 267-123 (68.5%) for +55.48 units and a R.O.I. of 14.2%!
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 232-181 (56.2%) for +51.2 units and R.O.I. of 12.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match: TORONTO
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections.
System Matches: CINCINNATI (+16), OAKLAND (+40)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE (+35), ATLANTA (+32)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE-WASHINGTON OVER 8.5 (+0.64), BALTIMORE-TORONTO OVER 8.5 (+0.81)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO-COLORADO UNDER 11.5 (-0.53), LA ANGELS-ATLANTA UNDER 10.5 (-0.83), OAKLAND-LA DODGERS UNDER 9.5 (-0.84)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>> See situational records for each team.
(901) MILWAUKEE (58-50) at (902) WASHINGTON (45-63)
Trend: Milwaukee worse against LH starters (15-17, -5.55 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee bad against NL East/West (18-23, -4.60 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Washington bad at HOME (21-34, -5.95 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington decent during the DAY (22-24, +10.10 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
(903) SAN DIEGO (53-55) at (904) COLORADO (42-65)
Trend: San Diego better against LH starters (21-17, -2.90 units)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: Colorado worse in division (7-20, -8.95 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (26-47, -11.80 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
(905) PHILADELPHIA (58-49) at (906) MIAMI (57-51)
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (31-31, -8.15 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Miami not as good in division (13-18, -4.67 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: Miami OVER in divisional games (17-12 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(907) CINCINNATI (59-50) at (908) CHICAGO-NL (54-53)
Trend: Cincinnati better vs Chicago Cubs (5-2 this season)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (36-27, +16.15 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati OVER at NIGHT (37-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago better versus LH starters (19-15, +3.50 units)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
(909) ARIZONA (57-51) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (59-49)
Trend: Arizona better at NIGHT (37-28, +11.14 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: San Francisco good at NIGHT (36-24, +7.80 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (22-36 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(911) CLEVELAND (53-55) at (912) HOUSTON (61-47)
Trend: Cleveland not good as ML underdog (17-25, -5.45 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: Houston not as good for bettors at HOME (30-25, -8.70 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(913) BOSTON (57-50) at (914) SEATTLE (55-52)
Trend: Boston better against AL competition (39-28, +12.25 units)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston good as ML underdog (25-25, +7.85 units)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Seattle slight UNDER in DAY games (15-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(915) TAMPA BAY (66-44) at (916) NEW YORK-AL (55-52)
Trend: Tampa Bay not as good on ROAD (29-25, -3.20 units)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay bad as ML underdog (5-12, -6.45 units)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on ROAD (21-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYY not good at NIGHT (29-39, -16.05 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
(917) BALTIMORE (66-41) at (918) TORONTO (59-49)
Trend: Baltimore better against AL competition (51-27, +24.14 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Toronto bad in division games (7-22, -24.05 units)
System Match: FADE TORONTO
Trend: Toronto UNDER in HOME games (17-31 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(919) CHICAGO-AL (43-65) at (920) TEXAS (61-46)
Trend: Chicago bad against AL East/West (15-31, -17.05 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Texas OVER in HOME games (31-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(921) LOS ANGELES-AL (56-52) at (922) ATLANTA (68-37)
Trend: LAA UNDER against NL competition (12-19 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAA worse against NL competition (14-19, -10.20 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA good against RH starters (45-34, +9.30 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: Atlanta not as good bet against AL teams (22-20, -11.18 units)
System Match: FADE ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta more UNDER during DAY (16-17 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Atlanta UNDER in interleague games (18-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(923) DETROIT (47-60) at (924) PITTSBURGH (48-58)
Trend: Detroit UNDER in DAY games (22-27 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Pittsburgh not good in interleague games (14-22, -7.65 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh trending UNDER in DAY games (19-24 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(925) MINNESOTA (55-53) at (926) ST LOUIS (47-61)
Trend: Minnesota not as good against NL (11-13, -6.95 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (24-42, -28.15 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis OVER in HOME games (29-21 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(927) NEW YORK-NL (50-56) at (928) KANSAS CITY (33-75)
Trend: NYM bad against LH starters (11-25, -22.60 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (17-48, -24.25 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
(929) OAKLAND (30-78) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (60-45)
Trend: Oakland better bet in NIGHT games (24-38, +3.40 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: LAD better in NIGHT games (46-26, +4.85 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD OVER against LH starters (17-10 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAD OVER in interleague games (21-7 O/U!)
System Match: OVER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled 20 MLB second half series’ with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow)
