VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Wednesday, September 27
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Wednesday, September 27, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI (GMS 1 & 2), ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, SAN DIEGO, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, TEXAS, HOUSTON, ARIZONA, CINCINNATI
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Sunday, September 24, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 164-104 record, but for -86.8 units. This is an R.O.I. of -32.4%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE DETROIT, FADE BALTIMORE
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 140-56 for +16.73 units as of Monday 9/25. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle for the season has fallen recently but remains at +8.5%.
System Matches: LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 75-71 for -84.81 units! This angle was 4-4 last week and again lost –5.78 units! This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -58.1%! By fading these teams, a season-long backer of this system would currently be around +70 units of profit!
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 328-334 for +70.05 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.6%.
System Matches: SAN DIEGO, NY YANKEES, CINCINNATI, MIAMI GM 2
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 239-243 for -22.71 units, an R.O.I. of -4.71%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 99-117 for -14.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system has fallen to -6.8%. Both of these records took big hits last week with Kansas City winning six straight games and Texas going on a run of its own.
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 231-160 for +15.43 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 3.9%.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since September 18, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have now gone 116-79 for +19.02 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 9.8% after the past seven days. There weren’t many plays last week, but these teams were 4-1 for +3.27 units.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 309-284 (52.1%) for +38.59 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.5%.
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX, COLORADO
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA, FADE CINCINNATI, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE LA DODGERS, FADE LA ANGELS
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE NY YANKEES, FADE HOUSTON
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND, FADE DETROIT, FADE BOSTON, FADE ATLANTA, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE LA ANGELS, FADE SEATTLE
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 807-685 (54.1%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +29.27 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.0%.
System Matches: NY METS (GAME 1), TORONTO, SAN FRANCISCO
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 410-338 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +30.62 units, for an R.O.I. of 4.1%.
System Matches: TORONTO
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 240-198 (54.8%) for +39.65 units and an R.O.I. of 9.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: COLORADO
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 125-104 run (+45.48 units, ROI: 19.9%).
System Matches: NY METS (GAME 1)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 165-81 (+19.70 units, ROI: 8%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 147-92 in their last 239 tries (+27.87 units, ROI: 11.7%).
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KANSAS CITY (+23), OAKLAND (+25), WASHINGTON (+36)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA (+28), LA DODGERS (+55), TEXAS (+42)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI-NY METS GM 1 OVER 7.5 (+0.71), TAMPA BAY-BOSTON OVER 7.5 (+1.06), KANSAS CITY-DETROIT OVER 7.5 (+1.22), WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE OVER 8 (+1.22)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(909) LOS ANGELES-NL (97-60) at (910) COLORADO (57-100)
Trend: LAD better at NIGHT (73-39, +13.22 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD heavy OVER on the ROAD (49-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Colorado is 2-9 against LAD this season
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (37-71, -18.06 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
(901) PITTSBURGH (74-83) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (88-69)
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER at NIGHT (57-36 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh trends OVER vs. LH starters (30-19 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Philadelphia good against NL Central/West (36-26 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia fighting for playoff seeding
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
(903) MIAMI (81-75) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (71-85) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Miami heavy UNDER against LH starters (11-26 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Miami good during the DAY (38-29, +7.94 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: NYM bad against LH starters (15-34, -29.15 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM heavy UNDER at HOME (25-44 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: CHECK OUT MOMENTUM TREND BELOW
MIAMI (81-75) at NEW YORK-NL (71-85) (DH Game #2)
Trend: Miami slight OVER against RH starters (61-53 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Miami not as good at NIGHT (43-46, -6.39 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: NYM slightly better at HOME (39-36 record)
System Match: NY METS
Trend: NYM heavy UNDER at NIGHT (38-58 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(905) CHICAGO-NL (82-75) at (906) ATLANTA (101-56)
Trend: Chicago heavy UNDER against NL East/West (23-38 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Atlanta good at NIGHT (72-35, +9.08 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER against RH starters (68-54 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER against NL Central/West (40-22 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(907) ST LOUIS (69-88) at (908) MILWAUKEE (88-69)
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (41-64, -30.02 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis slight UNDER on the ROAD (34-42 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Milwaukee bad against LH starters (20-26, -13.93 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee good at HOME (45-31 record)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
(911) SAN DIEGO (78-80) at (912) SAN FRANCISCO (78-80)
Trend: San Diego not great on the ROAD (34-43, -18.39 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego better against LH starters (28-19 record)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: HOME team is 9-3 in season series
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (37-53 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(915) KANSAS CITY (54-103) at (916) DETROIT (74-83)
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (31-65, -21.61 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City slight OVER against LH starters (20-17 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit leads season series (8-3 record)
System Match: DETROIT
Trend: Detroit trending UNDER a couple of ways (18-28 O/U in division, 51-65 O/U against RH starters)
System Match: UNDER
(917) NEW YORK-AL (80-77) at (918) TORONTO (87-70)
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (50-51, -7.52 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY trending UNDER on the ROAD (32-40 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER at HOME (28-43 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto decent record against RH starters (67-56)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND BELOW
(913) TAMPA BAY (96-62) at (914) BOSTON (76-81)
Trend: Tampa Bay slight UNDER on the ROAD (33-38 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay dominating season series (10-2 record)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Boston trending OVER against RH starters (64-48 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Boston out of playoff contention
System Match: FADE BOSTON
(919) OAKLAND (48-109) at (920) MINNESOTA (84-73)
Trend: Oakland heavy OVER against AL Central/East (39-19 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Oakland slightly better bet at NIGHT (35-58, +0.04 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: Minnesota good with RHP Pablo Lopez on the mound (won 7 of L10 games)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Minnesota trending OVER at NIGHT (48-40 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(921) TEXAS (88-69) at (922) LOS ANGELES-AL (71-87)
Trend: Texas decent record at NIGHT (54-46)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER at NIGHT (54-42 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAA bad at NIGHT (45-62, -23.94 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA not in playoff contention
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA trending OVER in division games (28-16 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(923) HOUSTON (86-72) at (924) SEATTLE (85-72)
Trend: Houston much better on the ROAD (47-30, +12.15 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston trending OVER at NIGHT (57-47 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle dominating season series (9-3 record)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle slight UNDER against LH starters (16-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(927) CINCINNATI (81-77) at (928) CLEVELAND (74-84)
Trend: Cincinnati great against AL teams (28-17, +14.48 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati slight UNDER against RH starters (50-60 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland heavy UNDER at HOME (28-51 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland not good against LH starters (22-34, -21.31 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
(929) WASHINGTON (69-89) at (930) BALTIMORE (98-59)
Trend: Washington better bet on the ROAD (35-42, +17.77 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Baltimore slight UNDER in interleague play (19-21 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Baltimore good at NIGHT (64-38, +23.76 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND BELOW
(925) ARIZONA (83-74) at (926) CHICAGO-AL (60-97)
Trend: Arizona slight UNDER in interleague play (16-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona fighting for playoff spot (CWS are not)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Chicago bad in interleague play (14-27, -10.56 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (38-57 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Tue 9/26-Thu 9/28
Trend: FAVORITES are just 14-27 (34.1%, -24.53 units) in the last 41 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
The R.O.I. on this trend is -59.8%
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-115 favorite as of 9:45 AM CT)
Series #20: Washington at Baltimore, Tue 9/26-Wed 9/27
Trend: UNDER the total is 10-0 (100%, +10 units) in the last 10 games between Washington & Baltimore
The R.O.I. on this trend is 100%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in WSH-BAL
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NY METS
LETDOWN after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 11-16 (40.7%) -8.55 units, ROI: -31.7%
Next betting opportunity: Wednesday 9/27 vs. Miami
System Matches: FADE NY METS (GAME 1)
