The 2023-24 NBA season is in full swing and we’re tackling it hard at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel will be providing you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Monday, February 26. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on February 26
2023 Record: 210-194-2 (+1.01 units)
NBA Best Bets Today – February 26
Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 pm ET
I laid the small number with the Los Angeles Clippers last night and got burned against this Kings team. Sacramento was spectacular defensively, and the team came up big offensively whenever necessary. Overall, it was a great showing for a Kings team that clearly got up for a meeting with one of the West’s best. However, this is a prime letdown spot for Sacramento. The Kings are playing the second night of a back-to-back. And they’re doing so against a Heat team that is without Jimmy Butler. With that in mind, I like Miami to cover as one of tonight’s NBA best bets. I can easily see the Kings overlooking their opponent. And under Erik Spoelstra, this Heat team has been reliable when playing shorthanded.
Over the last two seasons, the Kings are also just 3-12 against the spread when playing at home after a road win. They have trouble coming out and matching the energy. Well, when you combine that with the fact that they could be a little fatigued, it’s hard to ignore. The Heat have also had two full days to rest since their win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday. And Miami also happens to be 7-2 straight-up and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games.
I also just trust the Heat to hang around as long as Bam Adebayo is out there tonight. He can disrupt Domantas Sabonis with his elite defense. That will slow down this Sacramento offense quite a bit. And offensively, the Heat will need to play through Adebayo as a hub quite a bit here. Miami is arguably at its best when Adebayo is using his big body and exceptional court vision to free up his teammates for open jumpers.
Bet: Heat +7.5 (-110 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – February 26
Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 pm ET
Pascal Siakam will be going up against his former team tonight, and I like him to do some nice things as a playmaker. Since arriving in Indiana, Siakam is averaging 4.5 assists per game for the Pacers. He has enjoyed playing in this fast-paced offense, even if he has had less on-ball opportunities since Tyrese Haliburton returned. Tonight, Siakam should benefit from working against a disastrous Toronto defense. The Raptors used to be a team that dug in and competed on that end. But since moving OG Anunoby, Toronto is just 26th in the league in defensive rating (according to Cleaning The Glass). There should be a ton of opportunities for Siakam to find his teammates, so I like playing this at plus-money odds. He had seven assists against this Raptors team on February 14.
Bet: Siakam Over 3.5 Assists (+124)
Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks – 8:00 pm ET
Since the start of February, Jalen Duren is averaging 12.7 rebounds per game. He’s also averaging 12.0 rebounds per game on the year, and he has reached double digits in rebounds in 29 of the 41 games he has played this season. Duren is simply a load on the glass. With that in mind, I think he can be trusted to rack up rebounds against the Knicks. New York is a very good rebounding team, but this will be a tough task with no Julius Randle or Mitchell Robinson. Duren’s combination of size and athleticism should really stand out here. I’m playing him to have at least 11 boards. I’m also sprinkling the alternate of 15+ as a small NBA play.
Bet: Duren Over 10.5 Rebounds (-123 – 2 units) & Duren Alt Rebounds 15+ (+370 – 0.5 units)
Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 pm ET
Dorian Finney-Smith’s minutes were a little inconsistent in the final weeks of the Jacque Vaughn era. However, Kevin Ollie played him 30 minutes in a close loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves last game. Ollie is the type of coach that will appreciate Finney-Smith’s defensive effort and versatility. And as long as the 6-foot-7 wing is playing minutes, I like him to make some 3s. Finney-Smith is averaging 1.9 made 3s per game this year, shooting 37.3% from deep. He’s a reliable 3-point shooter and now faces a mediocre Grizzlies defense. This is a plus matchup for the forward, so I’m grabbing him at even money to make at least two 3s tonight.
Bet: Finney-Smith Over 1.5 Made 3s (+100 – 1.5 units)
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