Welcome to Week 8 in the NFL. I remember when the season was in the second half at this point.
We mentioned this in Friday’s college football column and I will say it again here . . . as we get into November, December, etc. you need to be careful with your wagering if you haven’t checked the weather.
This week in Seattle is an example where they are expecting rain and some wind. It is also a point in the season where injuries can begin to pile up. Injuries to one player are typically not too much to be concerned with, but a cluster of injuries to a certain position group can matter a great deal.
Weather and injuries. Both can have more impact this time of year and where we are in the season.
Here are this week’s NFL games presented in official Nevada rotation order.
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Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 40.5) in London, England
We opened the Jaguars -4. They took the 4, they took the 3.5, they took the 3. I’m at 2.5 and finally getting a little two-way play at that price. They also took the money line on the Broncos. We had it at %plussign% 170 and they gobbled that up. We went to %plussign% 145 and they took that. We are now at -140/%plussign% 120. We opened the total 39.5 and they bet us Over, a pretty good whack on the Over, so we went to 40.5.
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 42.5)
We opened this game 10 and that was before the Monday night game. We reopened it 9.5 after the game. They laid me the 9.5 and I’m back to the original number of 10. No movement on the total.
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5, 49.5) at New Orleans Saints
We opened the Raiders -2.5. They took the 2.5, they took the 2, and we’re now at 1.5. They also took the money line on the Saints. They took %plussign% 115 and I am now at -125/%plussign% 105. Good business on this game. All sharp money on the Saints. The public is on the Raiders and I kind of agree with the public. That is why I opened 2.5. We opened the total 48. They bet me Over 48, I went to 49, they bet me Over that and I went to 49.5 and we’re starting to write two-way business at 49.5.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 41)
Lotta movement on this one, too. We opened the Falcons -6.5. They took 6.5, took 6, and I went to 5. They took 5, I went to 4.5, and they took that, so I’m down to 4 now. Lotta Panthers money and definitely from the sharp guys. The public is betting the Falcons, but not too heavy. We opened this total 42. They bet me Under 42 and I’m at 41.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5, 43)
We opened the Eagles -11. They took the 11 and we’re at 10.5. Writing pretty good two-way business on the 10.5. The public is on the Eagles here but not enough to push it back to 11. We opened the total 44, they bet me Under, and now I’m at 43.
Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 51.5) at Detroit Lions
Back and forth on this one. We opened 3.5. They took the 3.5, I went to 3 and they laid back the 3. Both public and sharp money on the -3, so we are at 3.5. We opened the total at 51.5 and haven’t moved it.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 49)
We opened the Vikings -4. They took the 4 and I went to 3.5 and pretty even action now at the 3.5. I opened the total at 49 and haven’t moved.
New England Patriots (-2.5, 40) at New York Jets
We opened the Patriots -1.5. They laid me the 1.5, laid me the 2. We are taking money back at %plussign% 2.5, so even though I moved a whole point, we are not that strung out on this game. The public is on the Jets at this point. We opened the total 40.5, they bet me Under, and I’m at 40.
Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 40) at Houston Texans
I have to say, this number seems a little short. We opened 2, they laid me the 2, I’m at 2.5 and they’re still betting me at -2.5. I have a feeling we are going to get to 3 on this game. We’re getting both public and sharp money on the Titans. We opened the total 41, they bet me Under, and I’m at 40.
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 44.5)
Back in August, we thought this game was going to be a battle for the No. 1 pick in the draft but it has been a tremendous game for us. We opened 3, great business both ways, and haven’t moved it at all. Basically all recreational play so far. The wise guys are waiting to lay -2.5 or take %plussign% 3.5. We opened 45.5 on the total. They bet me Under 45.5 and Under 45, so we’re at 44.5. As I mentioned earlier, it is supposed to be rainy and windy in Seattle.
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 40)
We opened 4. They took the 4 and we went straight to 3 on the Matt Ryan news. They took the 3 and I actually went to 2 on the game. They laid back the 2 and the 2.5, so we are back to 3. Sharp money is on the favorite at anything less than 3 and we did take some sharp action at %plussign% 3 and %plussign% 4. This total is funny. We opened 41.5, but with the Ryan news, we went straight to 40 with it and since then we’ve been sitting right there without any business on it.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (pick-’em, 42)
We opened the Niners -2. Sharp money took the 2, took the 1.5, and we are at 1 on the game as I write this, but we have good money on the Niners side, too. They’re playing the Rams on the money line, too. They took %plussign% 110 and they’re even taking even money (%plussign% 100), so right now I’m at -115/-105. I’m seeing pick-’em in the market – so I am going to go to pick on the side right now. We opened the total 43, they bet me Under and I’m at 42.
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (-11, 47)
We opened the Bills -11.5. They took it, they took 11, and I went down to 10.5. You never have to beg for Bills money and sure enough I’m back to 11 on this game. Total has dipped from 47.5 to 47.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 45.5) at Cleveland Browns
This is one of those 3/3.5 games. I opened Bengals -3.5. They took the 3.5, they laid me back the 3. This went back and forth about 4-5 times between the 3 and the 3.5. Lotta movement on the total, too. I opened 47.5, they bet me Under, bet me Under 47, and I went to 46. Bet me Under again and I’m at 45.5.
Chris Andrews is the Sportsbook Director at South Point Hotel in Las Vegas, a member of the Sports Betting Hall of Fame, and has been a Nevada bookmaker for over 40 years.
