Best NFL prop bets for Week 16

By
Mike Somich
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1255
 

 

 

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I’ve been on an absolute heater the last two weeks in the NFL, now at 21-3-2, on tracked plays on the VSiN picks page. Normally on a Friday, I run the board in the final hour of Sharp Money, where I give out every one of those plays, but this week, due to the holiday, I joined them on Wednesday. The prop market was not available yet, so instead of writing my general gambling article today, let’s take a look at some of my favorite props for the weekend!

NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups

Chuba Hubbard o72.5 Rush Yards

This is all about usage for Hubbard and the adjustment since Chris Tabor took over as the interim head coach. Prior to Tabor taking over, there was a split in the Panthers back field between Hubbard and Miles Sanders. That has completely changed in the last three weeks. In each of the last three games, Hubbard has gotten over 20 carries per game and exceeded the 73-yard mark. Two of those three games were not particularly close either, with the Panthers down two or more scores, and Hubbard still got a high workload. That gives me confidence that we will see at least 20 carries once again. The matchup here is a plus matchup as well. The Packers are currently giving up the third-most rush yards per game at 138.8. If we get the expected usage from Hubbard, he should fly over his rushing prop this week.

Najee Harris o47.5 Rush Yards

This is all about the match-up. Cincinnati has struggled to stop the run all year, allowing the fifth-most yards per game, and now they will be without stud interior lineman DJ Reader. Last year, with Reader in the lineup, the Bengals gave up 106 rushing yards per game. Without him, they gave up 138 rushing yards per game. Pittsburg had success on the ground the first time these two teams faced off, a game Reader played, with Harris going for 99 yards and Warren adding on another 49. Down to their third-string quarterback, the Steelers are going to keep the ball on the ground as much as they can, which should result in Harris flying over the 47.5 rushing yards total on Saturday.

Joe Flacco o245.5 Passing Yards        

If you told me I would be playing Joe Flacco overs in 2023, I would have told you that you are nuts, but here we are. The Browns take on the Texans this week, who have made a shocking turnaround in a single year against the run. In 2022, they ranked dead last in rush yards allowed per game. In 2023 they are sixth, allowing just 93 yards per game on the ground. Not a great match up for the Browns run game that has been running in the mud much of the year.

In Flacco’s three starts, no running back has eclipsed the 55-yard mark, and it will be more of the same on Sunday. That means Flacco will get to sling it once again, and while he has been interception-prone, he’s pushing the ball downfield and racking up the yards. In three games, he has gone over 250 yards in each and is averaging 313 air yards per game. With the lack of a running game, it will once again be on Flacco’s shoulders to deliver, and that should push him well over the posted total.

 

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