It’s time for Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 13 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 13 NFL best bets and Week 13 NFL predictions.

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Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets – 1:00 pm ET

As a Jets fan, it kills me to have any semblance of confidence in the team. I was low on New York heading into the year, and I have looked for opportunities to fade them throughout the season. However, I can’t help but think that grabbing plus-money odds for the Jets to win is the right call this week.

While Seattle currently sits atop the NFC West standings, the team is just 18th in the league in EPA per play (-0.022) this season. New York is 17th (-0.011). And defensively, the Seahawks are just 15th in the league in EPA per play allowed (0.002), while the Jets aren’t much worse in 18th (0.020). There’s just very little that separates these teams when looking at their advanced stats profiles, but it’s New York that is coming off a bye week and playing at home. Meanwhile, Seattle had to fly across the country after a big division win.

I just wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets break through offensively here. Seattle is just 18th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.074), so New York should be able to get the ground game going — even if Breece Hall (knee) doesn’t play. And if that happens, Aaron Rodgers should find a nice groove against a very burnable Seattle secondary. I’m actually looking forward to seeing how the Jets passing game looks, as the bye week should have allowed Davante Adams to get more comfortable in the offense. He has been learning on the fly after being traded to New York in October.

It’s not easy to win games on the road in this league, and I don’t think Seattle has the type of talent mismatch you would expect in a meeting between a 6-5 team and a 3-8 team.

Bet: Jets ML (+114 – 1.5 units)

Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons – 1:00 pm ET

It isn’t hard to make a case for the Falcons this week. Los Angeles had to play on the west coast on Monday night, so this is a short week and the Chargers had to fly across the country. Meanwhile, the Falcons are coming off a bye week. However, Jim Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the NFL, and he’s going to have his guys motivated after a bad loss to the Ravens. So, I’m not too worried about this being a bit of a weird spot.

What I really care about is that Los Angeles is a much better defensive team than Atlanta. This season, the Chargers are seventh in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.066). The Falcons are down at 24th in the league (0.054). There’s also not a big difference between the two offenses. While Atlanta is 12th in the NFL in EPA per play (0.045), Los Angeles is 15th (0.013). It’s a big difference on defense and a small one on offense. Also, the Falcons’ passing defense is a nightmare, so Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey should connect for big plays throughout this one.

This is also a massive coaching mismatch. Harbaugh is one of the best sideline bosses in the sport. Raheem Morris has proven to be one of the worst. That’s hard to ignore. It’s also hard to ignore that Harbaugh’s teams are 18-4 straight-up as road favorites of 7 or less in his career. On top of that, Morris’ teams are 3-15 SU as home underdogs. It’s also worth noting that Atlanta is 0-3 against AFC teams this year, while Los Angeles is 2-1 against NFC teams.

Bet: Chargers -1 (-110)

Additional Week 13 Best Bets

Bears +10 (-105) vs. Lions – Click here for my Bears vs. Lions betting preview!
Dolphins +3.5 (-115) vs. Packers – Click here for my Dolphins vs. Packers betting preview!
7-PT TEASER: Bengals +4.5 vs. Steelers & Eagles +10.5 vs. Ravens (-120 – 1.5 units)

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2024 Record: 42-39 (-0.01 units)

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