NFL Teams Try to Strike Quarterback Gold in the Draft
Week 7 of the offseason moves us away from free agency into full draft coverage. With teams shifting their focus from spending money to finalizing their draft boards, all the mock drafts will be plentiful and mostly inaccurate, especially when it comes to the quarterback ratings.
I love how the “so-called experts” believe their ratings for the quarterbacks are perfect, even though they don’t have the slightest idea of what each team requires from the position. Have you ever heard a mock drafter discuss the protection schemes or the difference between being a progression passing game or a high-low one? Of course not. That’s because they are grading on production. The result is all that matters or what he missed—not what he was asked to do with the ball. The secret in evaluating isn’t telling everyone what you see but what you don’t. Details matter: drive, heart, competitive stamina, footwork, and playing quick-minded matters the most.
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Hell, even the teams that understand the essential requirements get it wrong, so this isn’t a kill shot on the “so-called experts.” Since 2000, there have been 69 quarterbacks drafted in the first round, with three last year. If you remove the most recent three because we don’t know their skill level—yet, although all signs indicate CJ Stroud will be elite, then the number becomes 66. And 37 of the 66 would be considered failures—players who failed to live up to their draft status and lofty expectations. More than half (56%) of the quarterbacks picked in the first round failed.
Picking a top-level quarterback for professional teams has become as challenging as picking candidates who will make it through BUDS training with the Navy Seals. The success/failure rates are about the same, as is the money invested in accurately predicting.
Why is it so hard? Why has it become harder when the colleges feature the passing game, and kids throw the ball around in four-receiver sets since the seventh grade? Back in the 80s, when college teams were running the wishbone or some form of the option, quarterbacks were not being trained to read coverages, understand protections, play fast, and run if no one was open. Then, the game was about running the ball, using the quarterback’s feet, not his arm.
Remember Troy Aikman transferred when transferring wasn’t popular, requiring missing years before returning to play. During Aikman’s time, throwing the ball wasn’t the thing in college or high school, so when players left school to enter the pros, they had a steep learning curve.
But even today, the learning curve hasn’t changed. Broncos head coach Sean Payton shed some light on the evaluation process. “Everything that goes into a (game) is more than completing a post ball, a check down, a handoff, to be honest. There is so much that goes into offensive play-calling and schemes, and that’s the fun part. When you get to prepare all week and go into the game knowing you have a chance to get this play off. And when you do and get the right look, you execute it at a high level. It not only brings the coach’s joy; it’s why they do what they do. It’s exciting for me, too.” Finding someone to handle all that is required is dam near impossible. Without experience from the college game, it makes it even harder.
NFL teams devoid of a quarterback, fall into what banker JP Morgan once said: Every man has two reasons for doing something, a good one and the real one. Taking a quarterback when you need one is a good reason. Believing you can make him into a star is the real one. When there is a huge need at the position, a team’s eyes get big. They act as if they found gold in the Sierra Mountains, and all they have to do is excavate their fortune.
As in 1849, turning dirt into gold is harder than it looks—and today, turning a college quarterback into a star is hard. NFL teams are blinded by their dream of finally solving the problem. They convince themselves with a little development, a better receiver here and a better coach, we will finally have all the gold we ever wanted. They forget that the true winners of the gold rush were the people who sold picks and shovels.
For the next month, we will read and hear why teams have found their gold. Yet, statistics tell us that if six quarterbacks are drafted in the first round, which seems likely to occur, then at least three will be bust. And since we know Caleb Williams is the first pick overall, who is number two becomes more interesting than ever. My money is on Jayden Daniels, who is working out this week at LSU and should demonstrate to teams he isn’t going to wilt the first time he takes a hit. Don’t forget the only rookie quarterback who didn’t miss a game was the smallest, Bryce Young. Being quick-minded with the ball is more important than body weight.
Notes from the League
I hate the new drag-down tackling rule because it will be over-officiated. Scott Novak has already thrown his flag in his driveway, excited like a kid at Christmas for the chance to call more penalties. I am all for player safety, not more vague rules left for interpretation by officials who love to call what they think they see, not what they actually saw.
DraftKings released their Over/Under win totals this week. One team jumped out to me with a blinking light. Dallas under 10.5 wins seems like a great bet—almost too easy. I go as far to say Dallas under 10 is still good. When a team needs to rely on the upcoming draft to fill holes, always bet against them. The upcoming draft is for the next year’s team, as it takes time to develop players.
L’Jarius Sneed makes the Titans secondary improved. If Chidobe Awuzie can return to his old form, and Roger McCreary can continue to play well in the slot, then the Titans have improved a huge area of concern from last season. They still need help up front in both lines, but their offseason so far has improved their team—if (and this is a big if) Will Levis can significantly improve his game.
Speaking of “if.” I have now nicknamed the 2024 New York Jets, the New York “IFERS.” Why? Because they have signed players who fall into the if category. If they can stay healthy, they will be good. When a team has too many “if” players, then it becomes dangerous. And if the Jets sign Jadeveon Clowney, who had a fabulous year last season, to their roster. He, along with Aaron Rodgers, Tyron Smith, and Mike Williams, give the Jets four good players—if they stay healthy.
I don’t believe new Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh is blowing smoke with his effusive praise of JJ McCarthy. He sincerely loves the player. Harbaugh is as good as anyone when evaluating the quarterback position, so teams need to pay attention when he is this strongly in favor.
Remember when Jerod Mayo said the Patriots would spend in free agency and had to walk back his comments? Well, the Patriots over the last ten years have ranked 32nd in cash spending since 2014, 31st in cash spending the past five years, 31st in cash spending the past four years, 30th in spending the past three years, 31st in spending the last two years and 31st in spending in 2023. From 2014 until the present, by leading the league in not spending cash, the Patriots still won three Super Bowls. The Patriots don’t spend money and have won, so why would they spend now?
On the other end of the spectrum, the Browns have been the team that has spent the most. They have led the league in cash spending over the last five years, with New Orleans and San Francisco second and third.
