I dropped back a bit after a rough regular season finale week in the NFL, going just 3-6, although I will say that the two Saturday losses I would play again if given the opportunity.

It was a great overall season for me as I finished the campaign at 76-54-2 ATS, good for 58.5%. I am very grateful to VSiN for the support I’ve been given in making sure the weekly NFL Analytics Reports have been produced smoothly. They proved to be a critical factor in the best NFL season I have had in several years.

 

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As we move on to the playoffs, I will offer up at least one pick on every postseason game. I study the history of each round intently, as you may have noticed if you read my NFL Wild Card Trends piece, and as such, usually feel confident in forming an opinion on every contest. So, let’s get to it, breaking down the six games for this weekend.

Saturday, January 13, 2024

Cleveland at Houston

There are two games this weekend in which I’m a little less convinced of my picks than on others, and this is one of them. The recent history of the playoffs suggests taking the veteran QB when matched up against the first-time playoff performer. However, when the two first-timers (CJ Stroud and Jordan Love) are essentially the reason that their teams made it to the postseason, it is hard to do that. Especially when these hot quarterbacks are the underdogs in their respective games.

Stroud had a huge rookie season in Houston, reminiscent of Deshaun Watson a few years ago. His team wound up averaging a healthy 7 yards per pass attempt. They also put up 23 PPG as underdogs, going 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS. The Texans are 2-point dogs as of Friday, and the number has come down from 2.5, despite the fact that the Browns are the heaviest bet Wild Card team on DraftKings on both handle and bet volume. In recent years, we have seen home teams start the WC playoffs very well, as in the last 35 Saturday games, home teams are 22-13 SU and 21-13-1 ATS (61.8%).

Head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team also has the edge in two of the most key stats that have prevailed in recent years, as over the last three years of expanded Wild Card weekends, teams that enjoyed a regular season edge in offensive passing efficiency and rush yardage defense have gone 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS (90.9%). They also give up fewer PPG defensively, another edge that has been big lately in this playoff round. I think the city of Houston and its young stars are going to be hyped for this one and I have a good feeling they’ll advance.

Let’s go Houston +2 plus a little ML action

Miami at Kansas City

It feels as if all of the attention given to the weather situations in Kansas City and Buffalo is an attempt to make it seem like the home teams will enjoy a huge edge. Here’s the thing about the Saturday night contest. Miami was oh so close to being a #2 seed in the playoffs, and I felt the Chiefs would have been far better suited to match up against Pittsburgh.

It’s hard to believe that I’m uttering these words, but it seems unlikely that KC can actually keep up with a far more potent Dolphins’ offensive attack, regardless of the weather. Hopefully, you caught this blurb from my Wild Card Trends article on VSiN: When considering yards per play, teams with better offenses in this regard are on a 17-7 ATS surge currently, and road underdogs with this edge are on a 16-3-1 ATS surge since 2003. Miami holds a full 1.0 YPP edge over Kansas City for Saturday’s matchup.

This is also actually a revenge spot for Miami from the loss in Germany in November, and teams playing on the road in revenge mode and averaging 28.0 PPG or more offensively have gone 17-7 SU and 19-6 ATS (76%) in their last 25 revenge tries. If you recall, Miami started very slow and almost came back after making some adjustments at half time.

With the total for this game still hanging around 44 and not dumping like the Bills-Steelers contest, it leads me to believe that the “experts” think there will still be plenty of points scored in the game. That doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs, who scored just 19.2 PPG in their final six. I like Miami’s chances here as the better offensive team playing as the dog.

Let’s go Miami +3, with some ML action to go with it.

Sunday, January 14, 2024

Pittsburgh at Buffalo

As opposed to the Dolphins-Chiefs game, which will be impacted mostly by cold weather, I feel like the weather expected in Buffalo is going to wreak havoc on the game Sunday. It literally takes most of any passing advantage that Buffalo would have enjoyed with QB Josh Allen away, as not even he will be able to succeed with 60 MPH winds.

Is that the only reason Pittsburgh should be competitive in this game? Well, we all know how gritty head coach Mike Tomlin’s teams can be as underdogs, but in this case, I don’t think the line of -9 for the Bills is warranted. Sure, the Bills might have won their last five games, but my recent rating shows them as just a +3.2, as the most recent three games have been anything but dominant. In fact, had one or two plays not gone their way at Miami last Sunday, the Bills were looking at being the AFC’s #7 seed.

The Steelers’ late season run was actually far more impressive, and their offense was as balanced as it had been all season long in that 3-game win streak. From a matchup perspective, Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS this season against poor rushing defenses allowing >=4.5 YPR. From a situational standpoint, Pittsburgh is 14-4-1 ATS in its last 15 January road games. If that weren’t enough, home teams are 17-20 SU and 13-23-1 ATS (36.1%) on Sundays lately in the Wild Card round. I don’t think this game is an easy one by any means for the Bills.

Let’s go Pittsburgh +9 (+/-1) as the big underdog

Green Bay at Dallas

There are so many storylines attached to this NFC playoff matchup that it’s almost unreal. Start with the great QB matchup between Jordan Love and Dak Prescott, then think about what the game means to head coach Mike McCarthy of the Cowboys as he goes up against his former team. Finally, consider how the Packers have never lost at AT&T Stadium in four tries and now come into another postseason loose and with nothing to lose as the youngest team in the NFL.

Does that mean Green Bay can compete here? I believe it does, and Love may be the hottest quarterback in the NFL as of this point, and how do you bet against that, especially when he is a 7-point underdog? I acknowledge that I have been a huge Dallas supporter at home over the last couple of years and it’s paid off as they haven’t lost at home since the season opener last year. However, I am concerned with their recent performances as well as their past playoff struggles. In the three games prior to beating pathetic Washington, the Cowboys were 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS while allowing 380+ YPG.

Head coach Matt LaFleur’s team had three of its best offensive performances of the year in the last three weeks. All the pressure in this game is on Dallas, and with Sunday NFC road teams having been terrific in the Wild Card round, going 14-9 SU and 16-6-1 ATS (72.7%) in the last 23, I expect a tight down-to-the-wire contest in which both offenses play well.

Let’s go Green Bay +7 (+/-1) and/or a total play on the OVER 50.5

LA Rams at Detroit

The Sunday night playoff matchup is another contest loaded with storylines, most notably the matchups between the QBs, as they each square off against the former teams. However, I believe the factor that will mean even more in this game is the fact that the Lions have been waiting for this particular game for 30 years! That is the last time the franchise hosted a playoff game. Can you imagine how electric the environment is going to be after Detroit won its first division title after years of toiling in mediocrity?

That’s not to say that head coach Dan Campbell’s team is going to have to win with emotion alone. They are actually a pretty good team themselves and have big edges in the two key statistics that have proven key to winning Wild Card games of late. In fact, over the last three years of expanded Wild Card weekends, teams that enjoyed a regular season edge in offensive passing efficiency and rush yardage defense have gone 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS (90.9%).

They have also done very good work lately against the league’s best teams, as Detroit is 12-2-1 ATS in the last 15 games against teams with a winning record (5-1 ATS this season). The home-field advantage will be tremendous in this game, and considering Detroit is 6-2 SU this season at home and scoring 30.5 PPG, it should be the end-all boost this team needs to advance. I think oddsmakers had it right when they had Detroit -3.5 early. Since it has moved as public bettors at DK are all over the Rams. I believe Josh Appelbaum calls that a “fade the trendy dog” scenario.

Let’s lay the 3-points (+/-0.5) with Detroit

Monday, January 15, 2024

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay

Philadelphia is basically cratering into the playoffs, having gone 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS to finish the season. We will truly see this week if “underestimating the heart of a champion” is a wise thing to do as the defending NFC champs begin their playoff journey. Does this team have anything left to give Tampa? Oddsmakers apparently think so, as the Eagles are 3-point road favorites, despite the fact that the head coach Nick Sirianni’s team allowed 30.3 PPG during the skid. 

Can the Bucs take advantage? That’s actually where you start to lose me, as with the season on the line the last two weeks, Tampa Bay put up just 22 points against the Saints and Panthers. There are a couple of streak systems this week indicating that Philly could bounce back here: First, NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 40-13 SU and 32-19-2 ATS (62.7%) run when favored in the next game as well. Second NFL teams that have lost their last five games ATS but were playing against a team with whom they have at least an equal won-lost record have gone 19-14 SU and 21-12 ATS (63.6%) in their last 33 tries.

It feels to me a little bit like the experts behind the counter are telling us who is going to win. Regarding the total, we all know the recent history of primetime Unders overall, but both prior MNF playoff contests went Under the total, and in past Wild Card games expected to be tight, or with lines in the +3 to -3 range for home teams, Under the total is on a run of 18-9-1 (66.7%). If that weren’t enough, Under the total is 13-2 in the last 15 Philadelphia January games, and Under the total is 6-0 this season in Tampa Bay games against teams with a winning record. It’s hard to see either offense thriving here.

I’ll lean towards the UNDER 43 (+/-1) and a little less to Philadelphia -3 (+/-1)

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