Schein 9 NFL Week 2:

What a wild first week in the NFL!

Will Levis’ decision-making on the field matched his choice of putting mayo in his coffee. 

 

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I’m beyond floored that the Patriots beat the Bengals. And Cincy has the Chiefs in Week 2. Not too early to be concerned with the noise.

My 9-year-old son went to bed Monday up 15 in his 12-team 4th grade fantasy league (even starting Caleb Williams!). He woke up on the wrong end thanks to Jake Moody!

And Daniel Jones did Daniel Jones things.

Here are our weekly “midweek musings” cutting through the chaos, Schein 9 style.

1. Brown Out

I will truly be stunned if Cleveland makes the playoffs this year. Deshaun Watson won’t let them. Cleveland currently has the worst odds to win the highly competitive AFC North (+800) because Watson is a liability. Watson was 0-10 on air yards of 15 or more. That’s dreadful, and it’s worse that his salary is a bloated and inexplicable 230 million guaranteed. Over the last three years, from when he signed the contract, Watson ranks 42nd of 45 eligible quarterbacks who have thrown at least 300 passes in EPA per play. That’s like handing Aidan O’Connell $230 million guaranteed and making him the face of your franchise. Watson’s numbers were awful. 

Frankly, watching his struggles in the first half were worse. Watson is unreliable in every way. I know the Browns made the playoffs last year, but that was with Joe Flacco, who, stunningly, was a major upgrade over an injured Watson. I know Cleveland making the playoffs could seem tasty at +200 after Week 1. I don’t see it. I hit the Under for wins before the season started and predicted they would miss the postseason. 

I think a call to the bullpen and Jameis Winston is on the horizon. I feel for Myles Garrett and the Browns fans. They deserve better. And with Watson and Cleveland traveling to face the Jags fresh off their inexplicable loss up 14 to the Dolphins, I don’t see them turning it around in Week 2, or covering the 3.5-point spread.

2. Cowboy Up

Dak Prescott rightly got paid before kickoff and all is right with the world in Dallas. Prescott is a regular season stud. He rocked steady against Cleveland and will put up his familiar brilliant numbers this year. Dallas stomped Cleveland and the Cowboys will win double-digit games as per usual under Mike McCarthy. 

The win total Over/Under was 9.5 preseason and it’s now up to 10.5 at -125 on ESPN Bet. I dig that. I think Dallas was getting a bit undervalued on preseason noise. I’m not screaming Super Bowl for this team, but there’s a reason to trust the talent and coaching (McCarthy hiring Mike Zimmer as his defensive coordinator was a stroke of genius) week after week in the gambling space. The key with Dallas is to tune out the omnipresent noise and remember this team is loaded.

3. Josh Allen is Superman

The Bills beat the Cardinals on Sunday in very familiar fashion. It was the Josh Allen show. He carried his team to a win down 14 at home. And get used to even more of that this year with a Buffalo roster that frankly isn’t as strong as prior years, but a megastar quarterback about to unleash on the league after wrongly being called the most overrated quarterback in the league. Allen totaled four touchdowns in the win over the Cardinals. He’s now tied with the Hall of Famer Steve Young for the most games in NFL history with at least two passing and two rushing touchdowns. 

Allen was my preseason pick, as you heard on “Make it Rain with Adam Schein” 3-4pm ET on VSiN, to win the MVP. You can grab that right now at +850 on ESPN Bet. When the Bills make the playoffs with this roster, it will be because of Allen’s domination and carrying this flawed group of players to the tournament. 

We will monitor Allen’s hand injury for Thursday’s showdown in Miami. But Miami was supremely fortunate to win against the Jaguars. Allen won in Miami during Week 18 last year to win the division. Miami is historically weak in big spots (think Philly, KC, Buffalo last year) and I think the Bills +105 on the money line is a great play.

4. Lions Roar

I picked the Rams ML in Detroit and felt great about it throughout the fourth quarter until Aidan Hutchinson pressured Matthew Stafford on third down with 2:11 to go and Stafford, having a superb game, missed an open receiver. Detroit marched down the field to tie and owned the trenches in overtime for a win that showed off their unique ability to win in any phase. Now is the time to get the Lions to win the NFC North if you didn’t for some reason preseason. And the Lions rightly have the third highest odds in the NFL to win a title. This team can win any style of fight. We raved before the season about Jameson Williams’ breakthrough. Week 1 was not a fluke. For fantasy and props expect this every week.

5. California Dreamin’

With that said, even with Puka Nacua on IR and missing the next 4 weeks and the offensive line riddled with injuries, don’t panic on Sean McVay and the Rams. LA’s defense looked terrific as we predicted on Sunday night. The Rams are +155 to make the playoffs on DraftKings, a family bet on my favorite group chat with friends. I titled my head sideways upon seeing the Cardinals as early favorites against LA this weekend. And I like the Cards this year. They are well-coached and have a lot of offensive talent. But a Sean McVay team after a tough loss like Sunday night…I think Rams money line +105 with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp against the Cardinals defense is a savvy play.

6. Niners Rule The World

Vintage Kyle Shanahan clinic on Monday Night Football. San Fran controlled the clock for nearly 40 minutes without Christian McCaffrey. That’s coaching. And Shanahan’s national TV domination of a talented Jets defense without CMC will go a long way for coach of the year where Shanahan is currently a wild 35-1 on DraftKings. The disrespect.

7. R-E-L-A-X

I know it’s tough for Jets fans to take a breath after Monday night’s debacle, and it was demoralizing. But the Jets next three quarterbacks they face are Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett, and Bo Nix. There’s no reason why the Jets cannot win all three of those games. 

Aaron Rodgers threw the ball well. The Niners controlling the clock, the Allen Lazard early drop, and Breece Hall early fumble ruined opportunities. As we speak, the Jets odds dropped to third best on DraftKings to win the AFC East. I’d grab them at +200 to win the AFC East, -150 to make the playoffs, and yes, +900 to win the AFC. 

8. Love Hurts

Rodgers’ former team was dealt a major blow with the Jordan Love MCL injury. While Matt LaFleur seems to think it’s only a three-week injury, Malik Willis is not the answer. I picked the Packers to miss the playoffs preseason (looking good) and the Under 9.5 win total, too. Now Vegas has the number for wins at 8.5. I’ll double down here. Willis trying to outgun Anthony Richardson is going to be near impossible. Then it’s Willis visiting the Titans in Week 3, the team that kicked him to the curb.

9. Sam I Am

In our Schein 9 last week, I said I loved the Vikings Over 6.5 wins. Well, DraftKings has upped the number to 7.5 after Sam Darnold shredded the Giants. Hit it. This was not a fluke. And don’t panic when the Vikings lose to the Niners and Texans over the next couple of weeks. I am a Sam Darnold truther. He always needed talent and coaching around him. With Kevin O’Connell and Justin Jefferson, and balance with Aaron Jones (what a major upgrade for the Vikings over last year at running back), Darnold can function and thrive. Minnesota is going to contend all season. That was my preseason take, not remotely an overreaction.

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