SNF Bills vs. Bengals Week 9 odds and predictions
Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Sunday Night Football game. In Week 9, that game features the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Buffalo Bills at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Bills are coming off a close win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. It wasn’t a pretty victory for Buffalo, but the team had lost two of its previous three and is surely happy to be back in the win column. Meanwhile, the Bengals went out and beat the San Francisco 49ers on the road, so they’re starting to look like contenders again. But this matchup will tell us a lot about them. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Bills vs. Bengals preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Bills vs. Bengals
Date: Sunday, November 5
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC
Bills vs. Bengals Spread
The Bengals got off to a slow start this season, but they have won three in a row and four of their last five. Cincinnati has also covered in three consecutive games, and the most recent contest was the most impressive performance yet. The Bengals earned a 31-17 win as 4.5-point road underdogs against the 49ers, going for 400 total yards of offense and forcing three turnovers out of quarterback Brock Purdy.
Cincinnati is now up to 17th in the league in Defensive DVOA, and the passing defense is a big part of that. The Bengals are 11th in the league when it comes to DVOA against the pass, and that should come in handy against a Bills team that will be throwing it often with Josh Allen. Buffalo just signed Leonard Fournette, which says a lot about what the team thinks about its running game. So, I’d be surprised if the Bills pound away here.
Offensively, Cincinnati looks like it is completely back. The Bengals have scored at least 31 points in two of their last three games, and Joe Burrow looks like he’s nearing 100% health after his early season calf injury. Last week, the star quarterback threw for 283 yards with three touchdowns and no picks. And he also added 43 yards on the ground, which included one scamper of 20 yards. That mobility was not there before Cincinnati’s bye week, and the sky is the limit for the Bengals with Burrow now playing like himself.
Overall, I just don’t think much separates these two football teams, but the Bills are cold coming into this one and the Bengals are scorching hot. When you combine that with the fact that this is a home game for Cincinnati, how can you not back the Bengals? On top of all that, the Bills are just 10-17 as road underdogs under head coach Sean McDermott. Considering how small this spread is, that straight-up record feels rather significant.
Bills vs. Bengals Total
The Bengals have looked a lot better defensively in recent weeks, but this is still a team that can struggle against the run. That will then open things up for Allen in the passing game, where I’d imagine he’ll have at least some success throwing the football — even if I do think the Bengals will get off the field enough to win this game. That ultimately should mean that this will turn into something of a high-scoring game. After all, the Bengals have looked explosive again offensively recently, and two of their last three games have gone Over the total.
It’s also worth noting that the Over is 11-7 when the Bengals have played as home favorites under Zac Taylor, and it’s also 5-2 when they’re favored by 3 or less. On top of that, the Over is 5-4 in the nine games the Bills have played as road underdogs of 3 or less under McDermott.
Overall, it’s just hard not to expect a lot of points in a game with this much offensive talent on the field at once. The only thing that can really change that is bad weather, but things are supposed to be pretty good on that front in Cincinnati for this exciting matchup.
Bills vs. Bengals Player Props
Parlay Calculator | Player Prop Analyzer
Tyler Boyd Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
Boyd has had at least 37 receiving yards in five of the seven games he has played this season. He has also been targeted at least seven times in five games this year. The Bengals don’t seem to be using Tee Higgins quite as often as usual this year, and Boyd has benefitted from that. Last year, he was targeted seven times in only one of the final six games that he played. That said, I like the idea of going to Boyd to have at least 37 receiving yards in this game. This one should turn into a high-scoring affair, and the Bills are going to do everything they can to take Ja’Marr Chase out of this game. I’m not sure they’ll be successful in doing so, but I do think their defensive scheme will force Burrow to look in Boyd’s direction quite a bit.
Bills vs. Bengals Prediction
While I do think the Bengals will ultimately get the job done here, this isn’t an easy game to call. The Bills were my pick to win the Super Bowl before the season, and I’m still very high on them. With that in mind, I’d lean towards taking the Over in this game. It wouldn’t shock me if the Bills were to steal this one late, but it would be surprising if this turned into a low-scoring game. However, I should note that this is just a lean for me. It’s not one of my Week 9 NFL best bets.
Lean: Over 49.5
Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Bills vs. Bengals!
