Tonight the NFL regular season officially kicks off with a primetime showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
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8:20 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5)
The Ravens went 13-4 last season, winning the AFC North and reaching the AFC Championship game where they fell to the Chiefs 17-10. Baltimore’s win total for this year is 10.5 with the over juiced to -120. Meanwhile, the Chiefs went 11-6 last season and won their second consecutive Super Bowl, outlasting the 49ers 25-22 in overtime. Kansas City’s win total for this year is 11.5 with the over juiced to -115. The Chiefs are the favorite to win the Super Bowl this season at +500, followed by the 49ers at +600 and the Ravens at +1000.
Tonight’s line opened with Kansas City listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward taking the points with the trendy dog Ravens. However, despite 54% of spread bets backing Baltimore we’ve seen the line either stay the same or move further toward Kansas City -2.5 to -3. It has never dipped down to Chiefs -2. This signals a sharp line freeze and some sharp reverse line movement on Kansas City, as the Chiefs are either being juiced up -2.5 (-115) or have ticked up completely to -3 despite being the unpopular side. Kansas City is receiving 46% of spread bets but 54% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. The Chiefs are also in the rare position of being a contrarian “fade the trendy dog” home favorite in a heavily bet primetime game.
Those looking to follow the sharp Chiefs movement but wary of laying a key number of -3 could instead target Kansas City on the moneyline at -145. Patrick Mahomes is 35-10 (78%) straight up as a home favorite. While it’s true that Lamar Jackson is an impressive 12-1 ATS (92%) as a dog in the regular season, he is just 1-4 straight up against Mahomes in their five head-to-head showdowns.
It will be interesting to see how this line moves leading up to kick off and where this line closes at, as we hovering around the key number of 3. Moving on or off the key number of 3 is one of the most important decisions a sportsbook can make, as there is so much money on the line in both directions. If we see the line fall back down to a consensus 2.5, that will open up a “Wong Teaser” opportunity with the Ravens. By taking Baltimore up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy teaser players can pass through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7.
The total opened at 46.5 and reached as high as 47.5 before some sharp under buyback dropped the number back down to 46.5. The under is receiving 53% of bets and 63% of dollars, indicating an undecided public but also respected smart money banking on a lower scoring game, specifically at the high water mark of under 47.5. Primetime unders are 160-107 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2019. The Chiefs went 12-5 to the under last season, the best under team in the NFL. The Ravens went 9-8 to the under. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 52-40 (57%) to the under historically. The forecast calls for low 80s with partly cloudy skies and 7 MPH winds.
