Week 1 of the NFL Preseason is officially here with a pair of games to choose from tonight. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every NFL matchup all season long using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s two preseason games.
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7 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-6.5, 35)
The Panthers finished 2-15 last season and their win total for 2024 is 5.5 with the over slightly juiced to -115. Similarly, the Patriots went 4-13 and their win total for this season is set at 4.5 with the over heavily juiced to -150.
This line opened with New England listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees two bad teams and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite 58% of spread bets backing the Panthers, we’ve seen this line get steamed heavily in favor of the Patriots -1.5 to -6.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Pats, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular side. New England is receiving 42% of spread bets and 68% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
A big reason toward the huge line adjustment in favor of New England is the fact that the Panthers are expected to rest most of their starters, including QB Bryce Young and backup Andy Dalton (injury). In their place, we’re expected to see undrafted rookie Jack Plummer and 2020 sixth round pick Jake Luton under center. Conversely, the Patriots are expected to play all of their signal callers, starting with Jacoby Brissett and followed by Drake Maye, Baily Zappe and Joe Milton. New England is a hefty -300 to win the game on the moneyline. Those looking to cut down the price and make an information based play on the Pats could instead target New England to win the first half at -240.
We’ve also seen this total rise from 34 to 35, signaling some respected over money. The over is receiving 55% of bets and 66% of dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action in addition to a slight rise in the number. The weather should be perfect in Foxboro, with forecasts in the low 70s, cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.
7 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3.5, 34.5)
The Lions went 12-5 last season, winning the NFC North and reaching the NFC Conference Championship game. Detroit’s win total for 2024 is 10.5 with the over juiced to -125. Meanwhile, the Giants finished 6-11 and their win total is set at 6.5 with the under juiced to -135.
This line opened with New York listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with the Lions. However, despite 80% of spread bets taking Detroit we’ve seen this line remain stagnant at Giants -3.5. The fact that it hasn’t fallen to -3 or lower with such heavy dog betting signals a sharp line freeze on New York. The Giants are only receiving 20% of moneyline bets but 36% of moneyline dollars, a sharp bet split along with being the top contrarian play of the night in a “fade the trendy dog” scenario. Those looking to bet against the public could also consider New York on the full game moneyline at -185.
These two teams have been involved in joint practices throughout the week. Brian Daboll is expected to rest the majority of the Giants starters, including starting QB Daniel Jones and rookie WR Malik Nabers. Same goes for Dan Campbell, who is likely to sit Jared Goff and most of his starters. New York is expected to play Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito at QB tonight, while the Lions are expected to go with Hendon Hooker and Nate Sudfield.
The total has been all over the place, opening at 36, falling to 34 and now rising back up to 35.5. The over is receiving 63% of bets and 73% of dollars. Weather could play a factor in this one, as the forecast calls for mid 70s with 7-10 MPH winds and possibly some rain showers at MetLife stadium.
