Friday was another mixed bag of errands and sports in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office.
We did some more work on VSiN’s upcoming NFL Betting Guide, signed up as proxy for some friends in some Vegas football contests, went to the post office to enter some columns in the Pro Football Writers of America writing contest and, of course, followed the action in MLB and NFL Preseason Week 2 and fell asleep before posting this column after a very exhausting week!
Note: we'll be back up early Saturday morning to post our "Team Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes" as me and my handicapping friends have plays on Saturday's big races.
Back to Friday, we lost our Best Bet on the Pirates 1st 5 %plussign% 100 vs. the Reds as the Bucs’ bats didn’t get going until the 6th inning as we trailed 3-0 through 5 innings but at least went on to win 5-4 at %plussign% 110 for those of us who also put a little on the full-game money line. We also lost our 2nd pick on the Rangers 1st 5 %plussign% 115 as they also didn’t score until the 6th inning and trailed 2-0 through 5 and lost 2-1 overall.
Finally, in the late game, we also lost our lone NFL preseason wager of the day on the Rams %plussign% 3 as they lost 24-20 to the Texans, who got a Houdini act from backup QB Jeff Driskel to pull victory from the jaws of defeat.
It wasn’t the best way to end a profitable week, but we look forward to the rest of the weekend.
Let’s recap the rest of Friday’s (full-game) betting results and then look for more 1st 5 plays on Saturday along with NFL Preseason Week 2 picks.
Friday’s recaps
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- NFL Expert Picks
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NFL: Faves went 3-0 SU and ATS Friday night as the Patriots (-6.5 in 20-10 win vs. Panthers), Packers (-3.5 in 20-10 win vs. Saints) and Texans (-3 in 24-20 win at Rams) all won and covered. Home teams went 2-1 SU and ATS. Unders went 2-1 with Texans-Rams the lone Over.
More NFL: Faves took an 11-9 SU lead overall with 1 pick-'em (MIA-TB), but faves/dogs tied 10-10 ATS (50 percent). Home/road teams tied 10-10 SU while home teams lead 11-9 ATS (home/road stats don't include neutral-site Hall of Fame Game). Overs dipped to 15-6.
MLB: Faves went 8-6 Friday with Red Sox-Orioles closing pick-'em. The biggest upsets were by Nationals (%plussign% 290 in 6-3 win at Padres), Royals (%plussign% 173 in 3-2 win at Rays) and Rockies (%plussign% 140 in 7-4 win vs. Giants). Home teams went 8-7. Overs/Unders split 7-7-1 with the push in HOU-ATL (8).
More MLB: Faves lead 1,064-698 SU (60.4 percent) on the season with 26 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 946-842 (52.9 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 875-817-94 (51.7 percent).
Saturday’s Takes
A’s 1st 5 %plussign% 150 vs. Mariners: James Kaprielan (3-7, 4.33 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) has been pretty good to us this summer despite his losing overall record (note: the A’s are 10-9 in his starts, so he keeps them in games early) and at %plussign% 150 this is took good to pass up. I also like the Rangers 1st %plussign% 140 at the Twins with starter Greg Otto, who we pushed with this past Monday at 1-1 in the first 5 innings when he allowed just 1 runs in 6 innings while outdueling Kaprielan in an eventual 2-1 win.
Here are the rest of my NFL Preseason Week 2 plays. My reasoning for these plays are in my column in Point Spread Weekly, though we post updates here with the more current lines:
Saturday: Broncos-Bills Under 42.5: This had also been bet down to 41.5 at some books as the market was agreeing that we won’t see much from these two offenses, though it’s been trending back up so 42.5 is available at some book though mostly 42s. After last week’s run of Overs, Unders are 3-1 so far in NFL Preseason Week 2.
Sunday: Cardinals %plussign% 6 or higher vs. Ravens: This line was as high as 7 earlier this week as oddsmakers were trying to make bandwagon jumpers pay a premium on the Ravens, who have won a preseason record 21 straight games and are 19-2 or 18-2-1 ATS depending on whose betting stats you follow. However, early bettors have agreed with us that the line was set way too high for an exhibition game (even with the Ravens’ streak) and it’s mostly at %plussign% 5 or %plussign% 5.5 now. I’m still hoping we see a better line by Sunday with Wynn and William Hill books back up to 6 as of early Saturday.
Good luck today (and every day!).
