Thursday was another long day on the road as – after staying up late to post yesterday’s column – I left Flagstaff in the morning for the Phoenix area as I had tickets for the Def Leppard/Motley Crue/Poison concert at State Farm Stadium in suburban Glendale.
I offered to pick up my friend Darlene at her home in the far East end of the valley. I had forgotten the Phoenix metropolitan area is the most spread-out one I’ve ever seen as it took me nearly 3 hours from Flagstaff.
Anyway, that gave us plenty of time to chit-chat and I also made it a point to stop at Portillo’s (No. 1 in VSiN colleague Matt Youmans’ fast-food rankings) for an Italian Beef, Hot Dog and Chocolate Cake Shake, of course.
The concert was just as awesome, but the concert ended at 11 p.m. and I made the mistake of offering to drive Darlene home even though my hotel was close to the stadium. So, I had a 3-hour round trip and – after posting the horse racing articles for Xpressbets’ Jeff Siegel and VSiN’s Ed Sehon (aka Mr. Ed) before heading back – I didn’t get to my hotel until nearly 3 a.m. to post this article.
My Best Bets fared even worse as I lost on the Twins 1st 5 vs. the Astros and A’s 1st 5 vs. the Yankees. At least the Twins showed some fight as they battled back from a 4-1 deficit to lose only 5-3 after 5 innings while the A’s were whitewashed by the Yankees as they trailed 10-0 after 5.
Let’s recap the rest of Thursday’s (full-game) betting results and then look for more 1st 5 plays on Friday plus my football plays for the weekend in NFL Preseason Week 3 and CFB Week 0.
Thursday’s recaps
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NFL: Underdogs went 2-0 ATS with 2 outright upsets as the Chiefs beat the Packers 17-10 as 3-point home dogs and the Texans beat the 49ers 17-0 as 2.5-point home dogs, so home teams were also 2-0 SU and ATS. Both games stayed well Under their betting totals of 38 in the GB-KC game and 40.5 in the SF-HOU game.
More NFL: Faves still lead 18-15 SU overall in the preseason with 2 pick-’ems, but dogs improved to 17-14-2 ATS lead. Home/road teams now tied at 17-17 SU with home teams taking a 17-15-2 (note: neutral-site Hall of Fame Game not included). Overs dipped to 22-13 (62.9 percent) overall.
MLB: Faves went 6-3 Thursday with upsets by the Orioles (%plussign% 107 in 4-3 win vs. White Sox), Mariners (%plussign% 104 in 3-1 win vs. Guardians) and Cardinals (%plussign% 100 in 8-3 win at Cubs). Home teams went 6-3. Overs went 5-4.
More MLB: Faves lead 1,109-731 SU (60.3 percent) on the season with 27 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 988-877 (52.9 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 916-849-99 (51.9 percent).
Friday’s Takes
Bills %plussign% 6 at Panthers: This line opened at 6 even though the Panthers have named Baker Mayfield the winner in the QB battle vs. Sam Darnold – and I don’t think the Bills’ backups have been given enough credit for the whipping they put on the Broncos last Saturday. It’s now up to %plussign% 6.5.
Seahawks -3 at Cowboys: I was actually tempted to lay the 3 points with the Seahawks as I was expecting Drew Lock to resume his battle with Geno Smith, but it appears a lot of people agreed with my reasoning as the line was bet up to Seahawks -4.5 when I wrote Wednesday’s column and now up to -7. I’m passing, but you make the call.
Angels 1st 5 %plussign% at Blue Jays: Angels starter Reid Detmers has had mixed results this season, but shows promise. Detmers is 4-4 on the season and 1-1 in last 3 games, but we’re hoping he returns to his form when he threw no-hitter and an immaculate inning (3 strikeouts of opposing team on just 9 pitches) while the Angels should be able to get to Toronto starter Mitch White (0-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.50 WHIP). I really don't like any other dogs on Friday's card.
Saturday
Wyoming %plussign% 10 at Illinois: I’m being contrarian as I’ve heard some of my VSiN colleagues on Illinois, but I think this line was too high at 10 and like it even more at %plussign% 13 as everyone continues to bet Illinois like they know the final score.
Vanderbilt-Hawaii Over 55: I made the case in PSW for the Over at 55 and like it even more at Over 53.5 at several books these past three days.
Good luck today (and every day!).
