Week 15 NFL Best Bets from Will Hill:

Here are my Week 15 NFL best bets:

 

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Under 43

Mike Tomlin’s outstanding history as an underdog is well-documented. I think a large part of that success is due to his relatively conservative nature—playing field position and punting/kicking field goals with a good kicker generally keeps games close. Tomlin and the Steelers are in that role once again, 5-point dogs in Philadelphia on Sunday. The Steelers are coming off a 27-14 victory last week against the Browns but only managed 4.3 yards per play, less than 300 yards of total offense, and may be without top wide receiver George Pickens. The Eagles, also off of a win, managed just 81 passing yards last week vs the Panthers. The Steelers have faced two mobile quarterbacks this season, holding Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels to 50 combined rushing yards in those two meetings, so they should be well-prepped for the mobile Jalen Hurts. I think points are hard to come by in this one, I’ll go under the 43.

New York Giants Team Total Under 12.5 +105 (DK)

It’s Tommy DeVito back under center for the Giants, as the visiting Ravens are the largest NFL favorite we’ve seen this season, currently laying 16.5. Instead of laying an enormous, yet justified, number, I will simply bet against the Giants offense. The last time we saw Devito was a few weeks ago when the Giants were shut out until the fourth quarter in an embarrassing 31-7 home loss to the Buccaneers. This Ravens defense doesn’t exactly conjure up comparisons to the 2000 team that won the Super Bowl, but they are off of a bye and have played against a very high level of opposing offenses so far this season. Aside from a couple of timely drives last season in winning efforts, DeVito has shown very little to suggest that he’s even a viable backup quarterback at the NFL level. The Ravens will be motivated, and the Giants are overmatched, lacking a quarterback, as well as an ability to protect their quarterback. 

Baltimore Ravens +185 AFC North Champs

Speaking of the Ravens.. perhaps now is the time to buy in on them at +185, considering the remaining games for the favored Steelers. While the Ravens are 3-score favorites on Sunday, the Steelers are set to begin a grueling stretch- at Philadelphia, at Baltimore, then home vs. the Chiefs on Christmas. The Steelers have some cushion in the win-loss record, as well as a head-to-head victory over the Ravens and a better conference record. However, this landscape reminds me of the NFC South a month or so ago, when the Falcons had a sizable lead, but the respective schedules pointed to a possible, if not likely, rally by the heavy underdog Buccaneers. The Bucs cruised past the Falcons and now lead the division, and I think the Ravens are capable of a similar surge. Admittedly, things don’t typically work out in my favor when I underestimate Mike Tomlin and the Steelers, but the +185 is enough to get me to bite.

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