Tennis best bets for Day 4 of the action at Indian Wells
The BNP Paribas Open presents us with a loaded schedule for Saturday, March 11th, and VSiN is here to provide you with more tennis best bets for the "fifth major." This is one of the biggest tournaments on the tennis calendar, as all the stars try and make their way out to Tennis Paradise. Keep reading for our favorite tennis picks of the day and make sure you come back for more!
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 11
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Stan Wawrinka
Wawrinka is quietly starting to play a lot better, as the three-time Grand Slam champion is 6-2 in his last eight matches. He also came through with a 6-4, 1-6, 6-1 victory over Aleksandar Vukic in his first match here. That second set against Vukic was a little disappointing, but Wawrinka tanked it once he went down early. And that was probably the smart decision considering how easily he won the deciding set.
This is a tournament in which Wawrinka has an advantage over others, as the slow bounce gives him a little more time to load up his punishing backhand. While we have compared this surface to clay a few times since starting to make picks for this tournament, you do need to have the baseline power required to hit through opponents. Wawrinka definitely has that. And his conditioning is finally getting there after years of battling back from injuries.
The 37-year-old also happens to be catching Kecmanovic at the right time. The Serbian just lost to an out-of-form version of Denis Shapovalov in Acapulco, and he has just been one of the most inconsistent players over the last 12 or so months. Kecmanovic did perform well at Indian Wells last year, but that run was a little flukey. And overall, we don’t see what he’ll be able to do to make Wawrinka uncomfortable here.
Bet: Wawrinka ML (+105)
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Jack Sock
We had Sock to beat Gregoire Barrere as one of our pro picks on Thursday, but this is a step up in competition for the American. Cerundolo hasn’t had the greatest 2023 season thus far, but he’s a talented player and just so happened to peak around this time last year. And he’s a guy that is good on clay, but also has the ability to win on hard courts. That’s the perfect mix in the desert.
Sock’s win over Barrere was definitely awesome to see, but there are still legitimate question marks about his conditioning. The American has a hard time maintaining his level for extended periods of time, and he has also struggled to stay on the court in the past. That makes it hard to fully buy into this current comeback. He also continues to play doubles and that leaves him more susceptible to injury.
Cerundolo has the weapons to neutralize Sock’s insane forehand. The 24-year-old might not look strong, but he packs a lot of punch from the baseline. The question here is whether Cerundolo can serve well enough to keep Sock at bay. That has been an inconsistent part of Cerundolo’s game to this point, but we think he’ll do it just well enough to pull out this win. Either way, the value is too good to pass up. You’re getting the 32nd-ranked player in the world at even money against somebody that is working to just crack the Top 150.
Bet: Cerundolo ML (+100)
Rinky Hijikata vs. Sebastian Baez
Baez is No. 35 in the world right now, but he won’t be there for long if he can’t figure out his recent struggles. The Argentinean lost 14 of his final 15 matches to close out the 2022 season, and he is just 8-6 to start 2023. Half of those wins came in his title run in Cordoba, which happens to be a hometown tournament for him. But if you strip away a victory in a tournament that was quite literally perfect for him, it’s still a guy that is hard to trust right now.
This play is more or less a complete fade on Baez, who is hard to believe in at the moment and also happens to be playing his first match in these conditions. Meanwhile, Hijikata had to go through qualifiers to get into the main draw of this event, and he then earned a straight-set win over Mikael Ymer in the first round. That gives the Australian three wins on these courts this week, and that should mean that the 22-year-old will be a lot more comfortable than Baez when they get out there.
It’s also nice to know that Hijikata has some experience playing on big stages in his career. He actually won a set against Rafael Nadal in the 2022 US Open. The University of North Carolina product did that by showcasing a booming forehand. That’s a shot that should be quite impactful here, as Hijikata could potentially outmuscle Baez.
Bet: Hijikata ML (-120)
