Today we have a smaller than usual slate of 7 MLB games to choose from. And it might be even less as several games are likely to be rained out. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies (-140, 9)
The Pirates (9-3) just split a brief two-game series against the Tigers, losing the finale 5-3 as -120 home favorites. On the other hand, the Phillies (6-6) just took two of three at the Cardinals, winning the finale 4-3 as -135 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates start righty Jared Jones (1-1, 3.86 ERA) and the Phillies go with lefty Ranger Suarez (1-0, 4.09 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -150 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +130 road dog. The public is laying the chalk with the Phillies at home. However, despite receiving 63% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Philadelphia fall from -150 to -140. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Pirates, whose payout got smaller (+130 to +120) despite being the unpopular bet. Pittsburgh is only receiving 37% of moneyline bets but 59% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. The Pirates have value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Pittsburgh also has a rest vs tired advantage, as the Pirates were off yesterday while the Phillies played at St. Louis. The Pirates have the better bats (hitting .270 vs .234), scoring 69 runs compared to 45 for the Phillies. Pittsburgh is 6-1 on the road while Philadelphia is just 2-4 at home. We’ve also seen some over liability, as the total is 9 with the over juiced to -115. The over is receiving 52% of bets but 82% of money, a massive sharp bet split. The forecast calls for lows 60s with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left center and possibly some rain at Citizens Bank Park.
7:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-120, 8.5) at Boston Red Sox
The Orioles (7-4) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 7-1 as -130 road favorites and then coming from behind last night to win 7-5 as -105 road dogs. In tonight’s series finale, Baltimore starts righty Grayson Rodriguez (2-0, 2.19 ERA) and the Red Sox (7-5) go with fellow righty Garrett Whitlock (1-0, 0.96 ERA). This line opened with the Orioles listed as a short -115 road favorite and the Red Sox a -105 home dog. Pros have raced to the book to grab Baltimore at the short chalk price, driving the Orioles up from -115 to -120. Some shops are inching closed to -125. Baltimore is receiving roughly 70% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating one-sided support from both wiseguys and the betting public. Road favorites are 38-20 (66%) this season with a 15% ROI. Boston has been hit by the injury bug after a promising start, losing Trevor Story and Nick Pivetta to the IL. Meanwhile, the Orioles’ good vibes continue to soar as they just called up number one prospect Jackson Holliday, who made his MLB debut last night going 0-4 with an RBI. Baltimore is 52-19 (73%) with a 19% ROI against non-playoff teams from the previous season since the start of last year. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 9 to 8.5. The under is receiving 40% of bets but a whopping 86% of money, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The forecast calls for low 50s, cloudy skies and 5-10 MPH winds blowing right to left at Fenway Park.
