Best Bets on Today’s MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I’m tackling player props here, and I’m targeting Kris Bryant, Dylan Dodd and Kevin Gausman on Thursday, May 4th. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting on each of them.
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MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 4
Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, May 4th:
Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 11.5) at Colorado Rockies
Kris Bryant is a player that could help bettors cash in on Thursday. The 31-year-old is having a nice season for the Rockies thus far, as he’s batting .299 with four homers and 10 RBIs this year. Now, the third baseman will get to face Wade Miley. The lefty is off to a great start for Milwaukee this season, as he’s 3-1 with a 1.86 ERA. However, Bryant has given him a lot of trouble in the past.
Bryant is 9 for 20 with a double, two homers and three RBIs against Miley in his career. That’s not the biggest sample size in the world, but it’s not insignificant either. With that in mind, we’re going to Bryant to get us two total bases this afternoon. On top of having success against Miley, Bryant has just pounded left-handed pitching, in general. And this game will be played in Colorado, so if he makes some good contact then the ball will fly.
Bet: Bryant Over 1.5 Total Bases (-145)
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (-110, 8.5)
Dylan Dodd has made two starts for the Braves this year, and the 24-year-old saw mixed results in those outings. In his first start of the season, Dodd pitched 5.0 innings of one-run ball against the St. Louis Cardinals. However, he followed that up by giving up seven earned runs in 4.1 innings against the San Diego Padres, and we haven’t seen the lefty since.
With Dodd having not faced major league pitching all that much, it’s hard not to like the Marlins to get to him a bit here. Miami hasn’t faced lefties as much as other teams this season, but the Marlins are hitting .299 against southpaws this year. They’re also ninth in baseball in wRC+ against lefties, so they’ll be eager to get a crack at Dodd tonight.
Bet: Dodd Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115)
Toronto Blue Jays (-175, 8.5) at Boston Red Sox
Kevin Gausman’s strikeout total for Thursday seems like the ultimate trap, but we’re taking the bait and playing the over. The number is down at 5.5 for his meeting with the Red Sox, which is outrageous considering he has racked up double digits in strikeouts in three of his last four starts. Gausman has also had at least seven strikeouts in five of his six starts this season, and he even managed to strike out five batters when he was shelled for seven earned runs in 4.2 innings on April 17th.
Of course, it should be mentioned that the Red Sox don’t strike out very often. They have the second-lowest strikeout rate in baseball this season, which is why the number for Gausman is so low tonight. But elite pitching goes a lot further than solid hitting, so we’re rolling the dice with Gausman. He also struck out at least six batters in all three of his starts at Fenway Park last season, so he likes this venue.
Bet: Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +433 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
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