MLB Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Monday, June 12th

By
Adam Burke
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352
 

MLB schedule today has 8 games

We’ve got eight games on Monday to kick off the new week around Major League Baseball. I’m back in the saddle after heading back home to stand alongside my buddy as he got married, so thanks go out to Zach Cohen for covering on Thursday and to Jeff Parles for covering on VSiN Daily Baseball Bets on Thursday and Friday. Now you’re stuck with me once again. Sorry!

 

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Hopefully a few days off to recharge and see some of my favorite people will help, as it’s fair to say that I wasn’t in a great headspace after how the results were coming in. Getting away in the content creation space is not easy, but sometimes it is essential. It was getting to that point, so I hope better times are coming.

A few quick updates since it’s been a while:

Two good tweets over the weekend from Jason Collette, who has been tracking month-by-month MLB stats. First he looked at May vs. June through June 10th

Then he looked at Net Stats for teams for the season:

A few takeaways:

Hitters are not hitting more home runs as the weather warms up, as the HR/FB% is down over a full percent from May to June. That’s a bit of a shocker to me.

The K% is up month over month – perhaps some pitchers are coming back off of the IL or they’ve simply adjusted, but that’s a sizable bump in a decent sample size. The spike is all from starting pitchers, too. Relief pitching K% is the same month-over-month, but SP K% is up from 21.4% to 22.2%.

As a result of a higher K%, the LOB% for starters is also up from 71.6% to 72.3%.

A rundown of some of the big injuries that happened while I was away:

Hitters: NYM Pete Alonso (wrist; 3-4 weeks), HOU Yordan Alvarez (oblique; week before prognosis can be made), KC Vinnie Pasquantino (shoulder; MRI today), DET Akil Baddoo (quad; TBD), MIN Jorge Polanco (hamstring; 4-6 weeks), CIN Jake Fraley (elbow). COL Charlie Blackmon (fractured hand)

Starters: LAD Noah Syndergaard (blister), CIN Graham Ashcraft (calf), TB Josh Fleming (elbow; season-ending?)

Relievers: CHW Liam Hendriks (elbow), LAA Ben Joyce (elbow)

Alright, let’s get to the action for Monday.

Latest MLB betting splits | MLB odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

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VSiN Daily Baseball Bets will be out shortly.

Here are some thoughts on the June 12 card (odds from DraftKings): 

San Francisco Giants (-125, 8) at St. Louis Cardinals

There are no day games on Monday and the earliest non-interleague game starts at 7:45 p.m. ET when the Giants and Cardinals fire up the first of three at Busch Stadium. It will be Logan Webb for the Giants and Matthew Liberatore for the Cardinals, as San Francisco draws a southpaw starter in this one. 

The Giants are actually improving in this split, though. They are up to 22nd in wOBA and are actually in the middle of the pack in batting average, despite a 26.3% K% that remains one of the highest in the league. Their 6% BB% in this split is really dragging down the overall offensive profile, but they do hit for substantially more power against righties, so maybe this isn’t a bad matchup for Liberatore.

The 23-year-old sophomore starter has struggled, as the Cardinals have used him infrequently and don’t seem to know which end is up this season. He’s allowed nine runs (eight earned) on 12 hits in his last two starts covering nine innings. He’s only struck out four to go along with four walks, so he’s had very little swing and miss in the profile. He’s faced the Guardians and Rangers, so one elite lineup and one very much non-elite lineup, but those two starts came 11 days apart, as St. Louis hasn’t had him on a regular turn and I think he’s suffered as a result.

This start does come on mostly regular rest, so we’ll see if he looks any sharper here. We probably don’t have to worry about Webb looking sharp, as he comes in with a 3.09 ERA and a 3.47 FIP in 84.1 innings of work. His last start at Coors Field ended a streak of eight straight starts with three earned runs or fewer allowed and he actually had seven starts with two or fewer runs prior to his June 2 start at home against Baltimore. 

Webb has a 2.37 ERA with a 3.21 FIP in his last 60.2 innings of work after giving up 16 runs (13 earned) in his first four starts. The Giants are deserving of a road favorite price here to be sure, but I think this one is lined pretty fairly. If Liberatore doesn’t pitch better on a regular turn, that’ll be a big red flag for me.

Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-110, 10)

Southpaws square off to start this one, as the Phillies send Matt Strahm to the bump for an opener appearance and the Diamondbacks counter with left-hander Tommy Henry. It is a full-on bullpen game for the Phillies, who have Andrew Vasquez as the only pitcher not to throw over the last couple of days out in the pen. Dylan Covey threw 14 pitches in relief on Saturday and Jeff Hoffman threw 27, so they are available, but those would’ve been the most likely bulk guys.

Strahm struggled in his last appearance with three runs on two hits (both homers) in an inning against the Dodgers. It was his first appearance in six days, so there was probably a little rust there and he’ll be on two days rest in this outing. Since May 23, though, Strahm has allowed a 58.6% Hard Hit% over 29 batted ball events and given up five barrels, so his command has been a little bit off.

Collectively, the Phillies pen has a 4.09 ERA and a 4.14 FIP, but Craig Kimbrel, Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, and Gregory Soto all worked yesterday. Alvarado threw 31 pitches just three days after returning from the IL and has thrown 53 pitches over those three days. Soto would be working a third time in four days. I don’t think the Phillies are in great shape here.

That said, I’m not keen on Henry either. The pitch-to-contact southpaw has a 4.37 ERA with a 5.76 FIP in his 45.1 innings of work. He does have a 4.26 xERA despite a horrible K/BB ratio, which speaks to how impressive of a job he’s done with his contact management, as he’s only allowed a 32.6% Hard Hit%. This is the weaker of the two sides for the Phillies, though a lot of that has to do with a 25.8% K% and a 5.9% BB%. Their SLG ranks 13th compared to their wOBA that ranks 21st.

Henry followed up seven shutout innings against Colorado with five runs on five hits over 4.1 innings to the Nationals on the road. Guys like this that are so reliant on batted ball luck and sequencing are really tough for me to back, even if the Diamondbacks are a legitimately good team with a better offense in this matchup.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-155, 10)

Tyler Anderson and Dane Dunning get us started in Arlington with the only division rivalry on the card. Texas is laying a hefty price against Anderson, who has a 5.62 ERA with a 5.04 xERA and a 5.14 FIP over 57.2 innings of work. After going on a little bit of a nice, three-week run, he’s struggling again. Anderson has allowed 10 runs on 11 hits over his last nine innings with eight strikeouts against five walks.

He got off to a rough start this season with 17 runs (16 earned) in starts 2-4 against the Jays, Red Sox, and Royals before allowing just 10 earned runs over his next five starts. Unfortunately, the Regression Monster found him and he’s turned back into a pumpkin. Anderson only has a 14.5% K% paired with a 10.7% BB%, so he doesn’t have much margin for error. He has limited the opposition to a 31.6% Hard Hit%, but he just allowed a 46.7% HH% to the Cubs last time out and a couple of barrels, so he failed to locate in that one against a top-five offense against lefties.

The Rangers rank third in wOBA against lefties at .358 with a 9.9% BB% that ranks sixth. Anderson walked five in his last start against them, but danced around them for the most part and only allowed three runs. 

Some regression recently crept in for Dunning, who has allowed seven runs on 14 hits in his last two starts. Dunning gave up his first home run of the season last start against the Cardinals and gave up two more for good measure in that start. It was his worst start from a command standpoint with one strikeout in 27 batters faced and an average exit velocity of 93.6 mph. He has a 40.6% Hard Hit% for the season, but each of his last five starts has come in over that mark. He’s also allowed nine of his 12 barrels for the season in those outings.

On the surface, this line looks cheap, given Dunning’s 2.52 ERA and 3.72 FIP against Anderson, who is north of 5 in both categories, not to mention the difference between these two teams, but Dunning’s recent command hiccups are a concern to me.

Tampa Bay Rays (-260, 8.5) at Oakland Athletics

The A’s are on a five-game winning streak as they welcome the team with the league’s best record. It will take quite an effort to run it to six, as Zach Eflin takes the mound for the Rays and James Kaprielian gets the call for the A’s.

Eflin has a 2.97 ERA with a 2.82 xERA and a 3.30 FIP in his 66.2 innings of work with stellar K/BB numbers and a 53.9% GB%. Except for an IL stint early in the season, it has mostly been smooth sailing for Eflin, who has not allowed a homer in three straight starts and seems to have gotten back on track after a few command stumbles in mid-May. His Hard Hit% is 38.1% and he’s been under that in each of his last three outings.

Kaprielian, on the other hand, sports a 7.21 ERA with a 5.56 xERA and a 5.77 FIP. He’s walked 27 batters in just 43.2 innings and allowed seven homers, though he has been a lot better since getting recalled on May 13 with a 3.90 ERA and a 4.32 FIP in 27.2 innings of work. He’s actually held the opposition to a 36.5% Hard Hit% and just three barrels in that span over 85 batted ball events.  

There just isn’t really a reason to get involved in this one. Even the Rays run line price is in the -160 range, so that’s a big ask.

Atlanta Braves (-225) at Detroit Tigers

Line postings are really limited here, as Detroit has not named a starter.

The Tigers will take the Johnny Wholestaff approach today, as they have once again run out of starting pitchers. Alex Faedo recently joined the injured list on June 3 and Detroit has an entire starting rotation on the IL and then some. Tarik Skubal is working his way back, but Spencer Turnbull and Eduardo Rodriguez hit the IL in May. Casey Mize is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, but he likely won’t pitch until 2024 at the MLB level. Matt Manning is also working his way back from a fractured foot and on a rehab assignment.

Soon, the Tigers rotation will look fairly competent, but it will be a bullpen game today. That’s tough because the Tigers used six relievers yesterday in another depressing loss to run the losing streak out to nine games. Detroit has not won a game in June yet, as they were 26-28 on May 31 and are now 26-37.

I mostly wanted to mention the Tigers rotation here. Obviously, there is no way I can bet on this game not knowing who will start for Detroit. I’m sure Atlanta will be really popular in moneyline parlays and a Charlie Morton strikeout prop isn’t the worst idea against the worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitchers, but that’s really about it.

Colorado Rockies at Boston Red Sox (-230, 10)

Connor Seabold makes his return to Fenway Park as the Rockies and Red Sox kick off this interleague set. Seabold was a member of the Sox organization in 2021-22 and made six starts for the big league club. He had a 10.55 ERA in those outings with 26 runs on 38 hits over 21.1 innings of work. 

As a member of the Rockies, Seabold owns a 5.10 ERA with a 4.29 xERA and a 5.12 FIP in his 47.2 innings of work. He’s made seven starts since May 4 and has a 5.03 ERA with a 5.71 FIP in those 34 innings. He’s actually had a couple of decent starts back-to-back with three runs allowed on five hits over 11.1 innings to the Diamondbacks on the road and the Giants at home. Despite a weak K/BB ratio, his low xERA is indicative of his contact management prowess, as he’s allowed a 36.9% Hard Hit% and a 7.2% Barrel% in those seven starts.

Still, it’s tough to go to Fenway Park as a pitch-to-contact guy, even if the Red Sox are struggling a bit offensively. James Paxton has not pitched to contact, as he’s racked up 36 strikeouts in 26 innings of work and just powered through a Cleveland lineup that doesn’t swing and miss much with nine punchies in seven innings. Paxton has allowed 11 runs on 23 hits in his five starts and has a 14.6% SwStr%, so he’s missing a lot of bats. The Rockies are 30th in wOBA and far and away 30th in wRC+ against southpaws this season. It’s a really bad split for them, even at home, but especially on the road.

The Rockies have a 26.7% K% against lefties overall and a 27.9% K% on the road. Only the Brewers have a lower road wOBA against lefties than Colorado. Paxton’s strikeout prop is high at 7.5 with the over at -120, so all of that is certainly priced into the market, but he should be in line for a really good start.

The Rockies had lost six in a row and 10 of 12 before walking off the Padres yesterday. They are 11-21 on the road and have scored 3.7 R/G, with 16 of the 21 losses on the run line. I don’t think Seabold is a good fit at Fenway Park and Paxton has an outstanding matchup here. Even though the Red Sox are at home, so they may only bat eight times, we’re laying a short number here and the offense should get back on track being at home.

Pick: Red Sox Run Line (-1.5) (-120)

Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals (-115, 8.5)

Luke Weaver and Zack Greinke were briefly teammates with the Diamondbacks back in 2019, but they will be adversaries here as the Reds and Royals fire up a weekday set. It has been a real struggle for Weaver, who has a 6.27 ERA with a 5.45 FIP in his nine starts across 47.1 innings of work. He just got rocked by the Dodgers to the tune of seven runs on six hits in 3.2 innings, but the Dodgers are not the Royals. Far from it.

The Royals rank 29th in wOBA against RHP this season at .288 and are tied with the Tigers for the lowest wRC+ in the league. To make matters worse, Vinnie Pasquantino, one of five Royals with a wRC+ over 100 in that split, is sidelined. Weaver’s numbers are objectively bad, but he has faced the Dodgers, Red Sox (at Fenway), Cardinals, Yankees, Marlins, Mets, Padres, Rangers, and Pirates this season. By wOBA, those teams are currently 3rd, 10th (4th at home), 9th, 18th, 21st, 17th, 24th, 2nd, and 15th against righties. This will be the first bottom-five offense against righties for Weaver. 

Greinke comes in with a 4.59 ERA and a 4.37 FIP in his 66.2 innings of work over 13 starts. He’s done an excellent job of limiting walks with only nine of those in 273 batters faced, but he also only has 50 strikeouts. He’s given up 11 homers, though he hasn’t allowed more than one in any of his seven starts since the beginning of May. He actually has a 3.28 ERA with a 3.50 FIP in his last seven starts.

I was surprised to see how good Greinke’s been. Against the reimagined Reds lineup, I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see the numbers turn a bit, especially because four of those seven starts have been the Marlins, Tigers, and White Sox, who are all quite bad against righties. Unfortunately, I don’t think I can trust Weaver enough here and Alexis Diaz and Lucas Sims have worked back-to-back days, so the Reds, who do have a bullpen advantage over the Royals, would be cobbling together the end of this one.

Miami Marlins at Seattle Mariners (-120, 7.5)

The top pitching matchup of the night will be at T-Mobile Park between Jesus Luzardo and Bryce Miller. The bar is pretty low given today’s other pitching matchups, but this is a really good one nonetheless. Luzardo has a 3.79 ERA with a 3.55 xERA and a 3.42 FIP for the season over 13 starts covering 73.2 innings of work. Miller has a 4.46 ERA with a 4.00 xERA and a 3.12 FIP in his seven starts over 38.1 innings.

Miller has been rocked in his last two starts, giving up 15 runs on 19 hits in seven innings to the Yankees and Rangers. He’s had a few extra days to sort himself out and make some adjustments after that Rangers disaster. He had only allowed four runs over his first five starts, but the realities of pitching at the MLB level hit him pretty hard in these last two outings. He allowed three homers and 18 hard-hit balls in 34 batted ball events.

The Marlins are 21st in wOBA against righties, so this is a little bit of a toned-down lineup for Miller. But, his lack of swing and miss finally caught up with him in these last two starts. He had a double-digit SwStr% in two starts against Oakland, but was well below the league average in his other three starts. You have to get guys to swing and miss and Miller hasn’t done enough of that.

On the whole, Luzardo has been pretty good this season, but he’s had a couple of recent gaffes, giving up six to the Giants on May 21 and five to the Padres on June 1. You could see those coming with some of his recent hard-hit numbers, but he bounced back nicely against the lowly Royals last time out. This should be another good matchup for him, as the Mariners are 25th in wOBA against lefties and have a 26.7% K%, so he has the chance to get lots of swings and misses.

The Mariners are 28th in wOBA against lefties at home at .302, but the park factor is so bad for offense that they actually have a 101 wRC+. Still, it’s a rough matchup against Luzardo, who has a 13.4% SwStr% for the season. Another thing with Miller is that he’s allowed a 44.3% Hard Hit% to any team not named the A’s. I think the Marlins find success and put more balls in play, while the Mariners are likely due for a lot of strikeouts and a lot of unfavorable counts.

Shop around for this one, as you can find Miami priced a bit better in places not named DraftKings.

Pick: Marlins +100

TL;DR Recap

Red Sox -1.5 (-120)
Marlins +100

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