MLB Best Bets Today June 1
The third full month of the MLB season gets underway today with all 30 teams in action. The first game doesn’t go off until the 3 p.m. hour ET, so get those errands taken care of and that quick landscaping session so you can lock in and check out some baseball.
Sorry to cut this short today, but I have some things to tend to, but didn’t want to leave everybody empty-handed.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for June 1:
Detroit Tigers (-112, 8.5) at Boston Red Sox
4:10 p.m. ET
Reese Olson and Cooper Criswell are both having solid seasons, but I prefer one over the other here in this matchup between the Tigers and Red Sox. Olson comes in with a 1.92 ERA and a 2.86 FIP. He’s only allowed one home runs and has been a ground ball machine with a 54.7% GB% over his 56.1 innings of work. Olson, like so many other Tigers starters, hasn’t gotten consistent run support and is 1-5 on the season despite that stellar set of numbers.
What I like here about Olson is that he keeps the ball on the ground as effectively as he does and that should play well at Fenway Park. Also, the Red Sox offense has not been very good for a while now. In the month of May, they finished 22nd with an 89 wRC+. Over the last 14 days, they have a 91 wRC+. They also finished May 25th in wRC+ against righties with a mark of 87. That is a lot of below average offensive performance, especially with a 24.5% K% against RHP last month.
While Olson only has 47 K in 56.1 innings, he does have a SwStr% well above the league average for starters at 12.0%. So, he’s generating swings and misses and pounding the strike zone. I think the strikeouts will come, but all the ground balls are good, too.
On the Criswell side, he comes in with a 4.19 ERA and a 3.80 FIP. He’s also struggled over his last three starts with 14 runs allowed over 13 innings of work. He’s kind of a tweener type of dude, so I’m not all that surprised to see the shine coming off of him. Criswell does have a 46.1% GB%, but his infield defense is noticeably worse than Detroit’s per Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric. The Red Sox infield is -13 in OAA, while the Tigers are -4.
Also, the Tigers are just swinging it so much better. They finished May ranked sixth in wRC+ against righties at 111. They were a league average offense overall in May and are ninth in wRC+ over the last 14 days.
Detroit’s pen is very well-rested for today’s game. Both bullpens are. But I like Olson and the Tigers offense to give them a lead.
Pick: Tigers -112
