MLB Best Bets Today May 28
The Tuesday MLB slate features all 30 teams, but several games were slow to get lines because of unknown starters or TBD slots. It’s that time of year, as we’ve seen a lot of pitcher scratches lately and the minor league depth is being tested a bit. At least the rash of major injuries on the pitching side has slowed down, but bettors will still have to learn about some new guys for the first time or handicap some unfamiliar names.
We had another scratch in a play yesterday. I won’t rewrite all of the thoughts from yesterday’s article, but the long and short of it is that all bets in this article are ‘Action’ to avoid confusion with the different lines for ‘Listed Pitchers’ and how some books may not even have that option. I realize it is frustrating and some of the picks will be voided on your end, but covering all the bases isn’t always easy to do and to do so without complicating matters too much. Use your best judgment and discretion in all cases. Everything is current at the time I publish the article.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for May 28:
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres (-135, 7)
9:40 p.m. ET
The Marlins and Padres will continue their weekend set on Tuesday night with a matchup between Jesus Luzardo and Matt Waldron. These two pitchers are very different, not just because one is a lefty and one is a righty. Waldron is the game’s only legitimate knuckleballer, chucking a butterfly up there about 36% of the time. He’s also a unique knuckleballer in that his fastball averages 91 mph.
Waldron has really thrown the ball well recently, as he’s struck out 23 batters over his last three starts covering 16 innings of work. I looked hard at his Over 4.5 Strikeout prop at -105 as well, but I do expect him to continue his success tonight. The Marlins are a free-swinging team that doesn’t really hit the ball hard and Waldron’s depth of arsenal and the rare nature of seeing a competent knuckleball are likely to keep the Fish at bay.
Miami ranks 22nd in wRC+ over the last 14 days with a mark of 87 and they’ve been a below average offense throughout the season, along with a 93 wRC+ in May. With how Waldron is pitching and Miami’s extreme aggression, I expect a good outing.
The Padres get to deal with Luzardo, who has not allowed a run in his last two starts over 14 innings. He also hasn’t walked anybody in those two outings and has only issued one walk over the last three since coming off the IL. He’s throwing the ball really well and also had one of his best starts from a contact management standpoint last time out.
Luzardo is a fly ball guy and the friendly confines of Petco Park should be a nice positive for him in this one. The Padres have had a good month offensively, but rank 16th with a 93 wRC+ against lefties here in the month of May.
Both bullpens have enough capable arms fresh and ready to go.
Pick: Under 7 (+100)
I do like Brandon Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks over Dane Dunning and the Rangers, if Dunning is officially announced. I looked around all over this morning and didn’t see confirmation, but it is his turn in the beat-up Rangers rotation.
Pfaadt has been terrific lately and Dunning was on my radar as a big regression candidate before his most recent IL stint. It came to fruition and he didn’t pitch well in his first start back. The Rangers offense is below average against righties this month and Arizona’s is slightly above. This is not an officially tracked play, but a strong opinion pending Dunning confirmation.
