MLB Best Bets Today April 24
All 30 teams take the field on Wednesday and many of them do so at night, as we have one early start, a couple mid-afternoon games, and a bunch of late ones. That means a lot of time to handicap the card and dig into the matchups. There are quite a few interesting matchups and lines today, as there is a shortage of big favorites on the board. Even the White Sox aren’t as big of a dog as usual, so it should be a fun night on the diamond.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for April 24:
Milwaukee Brewers (-120, 8.5) at Pittsburgh Pirates
6:40 p.m. ET
It looks like we could have dueling bullpen games in this one, as the Brewers will send out Bryse Wilson to start and the Pirates will send out Josh Fleming. The Brewers haven’t seen many lefties this season and haven’t fared all that well, so Fleming gets the nod over Quinn Priester, who was in line to start.
Fleming threw 13 pitches on Sunday and topped out at 58 back on March 29. He hasn’t thrown more than 28 since, so I don’t think the plan for the Pirates is really to push him all that far or all that hard. He’s thrown 35 pitches over his last four appearances and 50 over his last five. So, I think they’ll have no choice but to use Priester. Roansy Contreras could be an option, but he has a 5.63 ERA in eight innings this season and a 4.90 in the big leagues as a whole. Maybe Luis Ortiz is an option, but I think they’d have sent Priester down if they didn’t plan to use him at least for a few innings.
Wilson is now in the Brewers rotation with the injuries to DL Hall and Wade Miley. He was very effective last season with the Brewers, posting a 2.58 ERA and a 3.98 FIP in 76.2 innings and he’s off to a similar start this year. He has only allowed a 29.7% Hard Hit% and works ahead in the count a lot.
My guess is that the Brewers follow him with Bryan Hudson, a lanky, 6-foot-8 left-hander with a sidearm style delivery. It will be a pretty big contrast, whereas handedness is really the only difference for Pittsburgh. I like this Brewers lineup a lot more and feel like they’ve got a lot more staying power as the season goes along.
On the whole, Milwaukee’s bullpen has been a lot stronger than Pittsburgh’s and there’s a good chance that Priester will be the worst pitcher to work in this game. I tried to believe in him last week based on some good minor league returns, but he still looks to be the same guy at the MLB level. If Priester doesn’t get the nod here as a bulker, it’s not like Contreras or the other options inspire a whole lot of confidence either.
Pick: Brewers -120
Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays (-115, 8)
6:50 p.m. ET
It appears that Shawn Armstrong will open and Tyler Alexander will bulk against his former team as the Rays host the Tigers. There is no question that Jack Flaherty will get the nod for the visiting Motowners.
I gave Alexander some love last time out against the Yankees and took the Rays as a big underdog. They fell short in the 5-3 loss, but Alexander threw 5.1 shutout innings. The bullpen and the defense collaborated for a seventh-inning blow-up and the Rays offense didn’t do much against Clarke Schmidt. Today, I’m hoping Alexander can continue to fulfill the prophecies from that game as he comes in after Armstrong.
Alexander has a 4.79 ERA with a 5.77 FIP, but he’s pitched way better than those numbers would suggest. He’s given up five homers, and had a start in Colorado, but he has only allowed a 34.3% Hard Hit%. He allowed four barrels in his first outing against the Jays and has only allowed two barrels in his last three appearances. He’s throwing over 75% first-pitch strikes and he’s been able to generate a little bit of chase as a result. He actually had his best game in terms of swings and misses on pitches in the strike zone in that start against the Yankees.
Alexander has a .367 wOBA against with a .308 xwOBA, so there are a lot of positive regression signs in the profile. The Tigers rank 17th in wRC+ against lefties with a 97 mark and only have a 6.1% BB% with a 23.3% K%, so they haven’t been super selective and haven’t made a lot of great contact.
Armstrong comes in with a 4.09 ERA, but a 1.89 FIP, as he’s gotten unlucky in the LOB% department. He struck out five of the eight batters he faced last time he opened back on April 14.
On the Tigers side, Flaherty has been very impressive to this point. He has a 4.44 ERA, but a 3.83 xERA and a 3.69 FIP, as his 65.6% LOB% is ripe for some positive regression, especially with a 29.1% K% on the year. Flaherty has allowed a 33.3% Hard Hit% and only five barrels to this point. My favorite early-season number for him is his 3.9% BB%, as walks really became a problem for him over the last two seasons.
The Rays rank 29th in BB% on the season at 6.7% and have a 24.2% K%, so this should be a good matchup for Flaherty given what we’ve seen to this point. The Rays have a 97 wRC+ overall, which ranks 20th. They’re a league average offense against righties, but the park factor of the Trop is playing a role there, as they have a .299 wOBA that ranks 24th.
I really like the Tigers bullpen and the Rays are no longer compelled to give the ball to Pete Fairbanks, as he’s hit the IL with a nerve problem. I think this one is a low-scoring affair this evening.
Pick: Tigers/Rays Under 8 (-112)
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (-120, 8.5)
8:05 p.m. ET
Bryce Miller and Jon Gray come together for what has the chance to be a really solid pitching matchup. However, I prefer one starter over the other and one team over the other given the line and recent form.
That pitcher is Miller and that team is the Mariners, who were a solid winner for us on the 1st 5 last night behind Logan Gilbert. Miller has a 1.85 ERA with a 3.65 FIP in 24.1 innings this season, as he’s struck out 24 and walked seven with a 36.1% Hard Hit% against. He gave up four barrels in his first start against the Red Sox and a whole lot of hard contact, but he’s allowed just three barrels in his last three starts and has a 27.7% Hard Hit% in that span.
Miller, like Gilbert, is leveraging a splitter more this season and has had outstanding results on it. He’s also got a high Whiff% on his four-seamer and profiles very similar to Gilbert, so I think he’ll be able to have success against the Rangers this evening.
The Mariners got off to a slow start with the sticks, but they have a 124 wRC+ over the last 14 days, which ranks second to the Orioles. Seattle’s been very patient at the plate with a 12.9% BB% in that span, which is particularly relevant against Gray, who has walked 10 over his four starts.
The other thing about Gray is that he has allowed a lot of hard contact. He’s got a 46.2% Hard Hit% in his four starts and has allowed a 15.4% Barrel%. It seems like the Rangers wanted to work on some things and make adjustments because his last start got skipped. He made a relief appearance against the Braves on the heels of a noticeable velo decline against the Tigers on April 16. Perhaps it was just the weather, but Gray’s start was bumped to help out the tired bullpen, so he’s only worked 1.2 innings and faced five batters in the last eight days.
For a guy who has struggled with control and command at times, I worry that he won’t be as sharp taken off of his routine.
Just like yesterday, I’m willing to trade a few cents for the lower-variance 1st 5 ML as opposed to the full-game ML. I do really like the Mariners pen, but Andres Munoz, Ryne Stanek, and Gabe Speier have worked two of the last three days, so leverage spots could get interesting if the M’s have a lead late.
Pick: Mariners 1st 5 (-105)
