Sunday Night Baseball: Yankees vs. Tigers:
We have a very special version of Sunday Night Baseball this week, as the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers play in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, the site of the Little League World Series. The teams will play at BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field in what is classified as a home game for the Tigers, so they will bat second in the matchup between Marcus Stroman and Tarik Skubal.
This is a one-off game on the field in the Keystone State and hopefully the weather will find a way to cooperate with a quarter to a half-inch of rain in the forecast for today and more rain expected tomorrow on a mutual off day for the teams.
Top MLB Resources:
How to Watch Yankees vs. Tigers
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday August 18, 7:10 p.m. ET
Yankees vs. Tigers MLB Odds
New York Yankees +105 // Detroit Tigers -125
Total: 8 (-108/-112)
Yankees vs. Tigers Game Preview
The above might as well read New York Yankees +105 // Tarik Skubal -125 because the heavy AL Cy Young favorite is the only reason why the Tigers are favored over the powerhouse Yankees, who are a half-game back for the best record in baseball as action gets underway on Sunday.
Skubal is 14-4 on the season and the Tigers are 16-8 in his starts, so he’s been part of nearly 27% of their wins and has accounted for over 23% of their pitcher wins. He has a 2.53 ERA with a 2.82 xERA and a 2.64 FIP in 149.1 innings of work. If he records one out in his next start, whether that’s today or on Tuesday because of the weather, he’ll have set a new career-high in MLB innings for a season. He has 180 strikeouts against just 29 walks.
Stroman is fortunate to have a 4.01 ERA, as he has a 4.95 xERA and a 5.15 FIP. For the most part, he’s stayed healthy, with 23 starts covering 121.1 innings of work. Given the 4.01 ERA, the Yankees have to be pleased with what they’ve gotten from the back-end starter, but regression signs are definitely lurking for the 33-year-old, who has the lowest GB% of his career at 48.9% and is tracking towards a career-worst in homers allowed. He’s given up 18. His personal record is 21, which he did twice over 204 and 201 innings, respectively, in 2016 and 2017.
The Yankees only rank 14th in wOBA against lefties this season at .315 and 13th in wRC+ at 104. The Tigers are 26th at .296 and 24th in wRC+ at 91, but this is a different group with Kerry Carpenter in the mix. Not only is he their best hitter against righties with a 179 wRC+, he’s got three homers in four games since returning to the lineup on the 13th.
Both bullpens are in good shape here, as many of the primary relievers for the Yankees have only pitched once since Tuesday. Tigers opener/bulker Tyler Holton threw 46 pitches yesterday. Closer Jason Foley has worked three of the last four days. Those may be the only unavailable arms in relief of Skubal.
Bowman Field seats about 2,400 folks and the dimensions are as follows: Left Field is 323 feet, Center Field is 411 feet, and Right Field is 331 feet.
I doubt this game gets played with the weather, but if it does I lean towards the Tigers and the dominant Skubal.
Lean: Tigers -125
Yankees vs. Tigers Player Props
Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Carpenter is batting .310/.363/.662 against righties with a .424 wOBA and a 179 wRC+. He has a 26.1% K% in that split, but Stroman is not a strikeout guy. He’s a pitch-to-contact hurler and that should minimize any K concerns for Kerry. Lefties have worn out Stroman with a .269/.359/.481 slash and a .363 wOBA on the season. Carpenter is one of just four Tigers with at least 10 PA against righties to have a wRC+ above 100.
