Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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3:07 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (-135, 7.5)
The Rays (24-22) won Friday night’s series opener 4-3, cashing as +135 road dogs. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Rays start righty Zach Eflin (3-4, 3.91 ERA) and the Blue Jays (19-24) go with fellow righty Kevin Gausman (2-3, 4.95 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -145 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +130 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 moneyline bet split, we’ve seen Toronto fall from -145 to -135. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So, we know based on the 10-cent line move that sharp action has come in on the Rays getting a plus money payout, triggering an adjustment in favor of the road dog (+130 to +120). Tampa Bay is only receiving 52% of moneyline bets but 60% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Rays have additional value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money. Tampa Bay has the better bats, hitting .242 with 191 runs scored compared to Toronto hitting .227 with only 155 runs scored. Gausman just got lit up in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs and 10 hits over just 3 innings against the Twins. Gausman has a 6.75 ERA at home compared to 3.06 on the road. Meanwhile, Eflin has allowed 3 earned runs of less in four his last five starts.
4:05 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles (-120, 7.5)
The Orioles (28-14) took last night’s series opener 9-2, cruising as -130 home favorites. In this late afternoon rematch, the Mariners (24-21) hand the ball to righty Luis Castillo (4-5, 3.31 ERA) and the Orioles counter with righty Grayson Rodriguez (4-1, 3.71 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. Sharps have pounced on the Orioles at a cheap home price, steaming Baltimore up from -110 to -120. The Orioles are receiving 72% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars, signaling both Pro and Joe support in addition to a ten-cent steam move in their favor. Baltimore has the better offense, hitting .246 with 65 homers and 212 runs scored compared to Seattle hitting .228 with 51 homers and only 170 runs scored. The Orioles have feasted on teams who missed the postseason the previous year, going 62-25 (71%) with a 17% ROI since 2023. Baltimore is 16-9 at home. Seattle is 9-11 on the road. The Orioles have additional value as a non-division favorite and a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to benefit and come from the better team. The Orioles are also 15-6 in day games.
7:15 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (-115, 9)
The Padres (23-24) stole last night’s series opener 3-1, cashing as +180 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Padres turn to righty Yu Darvish (3-1, 2.43 ERA) and the Braves (26-15) tap fellow righty Bryce Elder (1-1, 4.79 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -125 home favorite and San Diego a +110 road dog. The public says there’s no way the Padres win again today and they’re laying the chalk with the Braves to bounce back with a win at home. However, despite receiving 60% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Atlanta fall from -125 to -115. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the Padres (+110 to +100), with smart money backing the unpopular road team to post another victory. San Diego is only receiving 40% of moneyline bets but 52% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. The Padres have a slight edge offensively, hitting .255 with 48 homers and 214 runs scored compared to Atlanta hitting .254 with 43 homers and 194 runs scored. San Diego has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Darvish has been virtually unhittable as of late, allowing zero earned runs over his last three starts in 17 innings pitched against the Reds, Cubs and Dodgers. Meanwhile, Elder has a 9.35 ERA in two May starts, giving up 9 earned runs in just 8.2 innings pitched against the Dodgers and Mets.
