VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Monday, August 21
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Monday, August 21, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher: PHILADELPHIA, PITTSBURGH, SEATTLE, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI, TEXAS
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Sunday 8/20 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 117-84 record, but for -83.82 units. This is an R.O.I. of -41.7%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE SAN DIEGO
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are 110-41 for +24.45 units as of Monday, August 21. This comes after a 6-0 performance last week. In analyzing my own strategies for wagering games, I kept realizing that I was rarely backing teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc., and not fading teams like Oakland, Kansas City, etc., enough. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +16.2%!
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 53-55 for -69.84 units! However, this angle was 5-1 last week and won 3.1 units, a rare winning week. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -64.7%!
System Match: FADE ATLANTA
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a rare off week of 7-14 (-5.14 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 276-283 for +59.38 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 10.6%!
System Matches: PITTSBURGH, KANSAS CITY, CINCINNATI
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After an 11-10 (+2.97 units) week, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 193-193 for -32.51 units, an R.O.I. of -8.4%. After a 4-6 result (-0.75 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 73-93 for -21.44 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -12.9%.
System Matches: 2-game – FADE DETROIT, FADE ARIZONA
3-game – FADE BOSTON
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, I have not found anything significant on the two-game data, although these did do OK last week. However, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 188-125 for +23.64 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 7.6%. These better bullpen teams had a negative week though, -3.33 units on a 5-5 performance.
System Match: SEATTLE
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/14 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 194-148 for +9.44 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a negative 4-6 week and have now gone 94-63 for +20.53 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 13.1% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 2-game – SAN DIEGO, KANSAS CITY, CINCINNATI
3+ games – HOUSTON, TEXAS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1430-1334 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -166.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1677 (43.3%) for -167.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS, FADE MIAMI
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE HOUSTON, FADE ARIZONA
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 785-661 (54.3%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +37.06 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.6%.
System Matches: OAKLAND, PITTSBURGH
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 234-184 (56.2%) for +50.25 units and an R.O.I. of 12.0% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match: OAKLAND
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 64-46 outright (+12.48 units, ROI: 11.3%).
System Match: TEXAS
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 121-99 run (+46.55 units, ROI: 21.2%).
System Match: TEXAS
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 135-84 in their last 219 tries (+26.11 units, ROI: 11.9%).
System Match: SEATTLE
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH (+26), MIAMI (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA (+24), SEATTLE (+29), TEXAS (+18)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE-CHICAGO WHITE SOX OVER 8.5 (+0.6), KANSAS CITY-OAKLAND OVER 8.5 (+0.5), TEXAS-ARIZONA OVER 9 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS-PITTSBURGH UNDER 10 (-0.9), NY METS-ATLANTA UNDER 10.5 (-0.7), MIAMI-SAN DIEGO UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>> See situational records for each team.
(951) SAN FRANCISCO (65-59) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (67-57)
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (39-31, +3.52 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (27-41 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Philadelphia not as good bet at NIGHT (36-38, -14.79 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia slight UNDER at HOME (23-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(953) ST LOUIS (55-70) at (954) PITTSBURGH (55-69)
Trend: St Louis not good at NIGHT (31-50, -30.42 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis trending UNDER on the ROAD (25-32 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Pittsburgh 3-0 at HOME vs St Louis this season
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh good OVER team as ML underdog (50-38-4, +8.30 units)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER other ways too (35-22 O/U at HOME, 42-27 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
(955) NEW YORK-NL (58-67) at (956) ATLANTA (80-43)
Trend: NYM bad as ML underdog (11-29, -17.20 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: Atlanta good against NYM this season (8-2 overall, 3-0 at HOME)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER multiple ways (45-34 O/U at NIGHT, 36-26 O/U at HOME)
System Match: OVER
(957) MIAMI (64-61) at (958) SAN DIEGO (59-66)
Trend: Miami trending UNDER in NL Central/West matchups (17-31 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Miami not great against NL competition (38-43, -10.40 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI
Trend: San Diego bad against NL East/Central (21-28, -19.40 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego better record against LH starters (22-17, -1.90 units)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
(959) SEATTLE (69-55) at (960) CHICAGO-AL (49-75)
Trend: Seattle trending OVER in NIGHT games (44-36 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago bad against AL East/West (17-34, -17.64 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago bad as ML underdog (25-52, -18.70 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (27-46-4 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(961) BOSTON (66-58) at (962) HOUSTON (70-55)
Trend: Boston good in AL games (47-34, +11.81 units)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Houston not as good bet at HOME (33-29, -11.80 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(963) KANSAS CITY (40-86) at (964) OAKLAND (34-90)
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (22-55, -24.07 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Oakland rarely a ML favorite (0-4, -4.27 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland trending OVER multiple ways (30-13 O/U against AL Central/East, 21-14 O/U vs LH starters)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Oakland has won 4 of last 5 with RHP Paul Blackburn on the mound
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland slightly better bet in NIGHT games (25-48, -6.17 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
(965) CHICAGO-NL (64-59) at (966) DETROIT (57-67)
Trend: Cubs trending OVER against AL teams (25-17 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit not great as HOME ML underdog (19-28 record)
System Match: FADE DETROIT
Trend: Detroit slight OVER in multiple ways (34-27 O/U at NIGHT, 32-25 O/U at HOME)
System Match: OVER
(967) CINCINNATI (64-61) at (968) LOS ANGELES-AL (61-64)
Trend: Cincinnati good against AL teams (19-13, +7.96 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (41-33, +14.61 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: LAA not great bet against NL teams (16-21, -10.20 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA slight UNDER against NL teams (15-20 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(969) TEXAS (72-52) at (970) ARIZONA (64-61)
Trend: Texas trending UNDER in ROAD games (24-33 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER in AL games (10-20 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona not good as HOME ML underdog (10-19 record)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Monday 8/28)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow 8/22)
