Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals and Zachary Cohen will focus on other markets including player props. However, I’m tackling YRFI and NRFI markets here, where you only have to sweat out your bet for about 15 minutes. These markets have increased in popularity over the last couple of years and I will do my best to find you the edge. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, May 5th.
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(All odds via Draftkings)
Astros at Mariners
Cristian Javier and Luis Castillo have a combined NRFI record of 10-2 this season and opponents are hitting under .200 against both in the first inning. The Mariners hitters have seen Javier a little more than the Astros have seen Castillo, but neither lineup has good overall numbers against.
Seattle has proven fruitful for YRFI bettors this season with a 9-7 record in home games, but their run-scoring rate only sits at 31.25% (5 of 16 games) which is below the MLB average for home teams this season (34.5%). Houston is 7-5 to the NRFI in road games, but their run-scoring rate is 41.7% (5 of 12 games) which is significantly higher than the MLB average for road teams this season (28.3%).
Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvaez have each homered in limited exposure against Castillo, those are the two danger spots in this sequence for the Astros. Euguenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh have each taken Javier deep and could be trouble spots in the bottom of the 1st.
Bet: No Run First Inning (-155)
Nationals at Diamondbacks
Josiah Gray and Merrill Kelly have each somehow managed to register a 5-1 (83%) NRFI record this season despite elevated FIP and xFIP data in the 1st inning. Eventually I believe both will run out of luck and regress back to their career average NRFI records, hovering in the 65-to-70% range.
The Nationals lineup is young and has struggled early with just a 23% run-scoring rate (3 of 13 games) on the road this season, but it’s possible they’ve been a little unlucky there, as their wRC+ in the 1st inning is above average. I love this Diamondbacks lineup, and they have one of the highest run-scoring rates among home teams this season at 43% (6 of 14 games) however they will be at a slight disadvantage here essentially facing Gray for the first time with only 10 career plate appearances against. Regardless, I think they can overcome that and find a way to scratch across an early run.
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-135)
