The Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season features the Minnesota Vikings hosting the Indianapolis Colts at U.S. Bank Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 9 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

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How To Watch Colts vs. Vikings

When: Sunday, November 3rd at 8:20 pm ET

Where: U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota

Channel: NBC/Peacock

Colts vs. Vikings Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, November 1st. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Vikings -225, Colts +185

Spread: Vikings -5 (-110), Colts +5 (-110)

Total: Over 46.5 (-108), Under 46.5 (-112)

Colts vs. Vikings Analysis

After last week’s loss to the Texans, the Colts made the decision to bench Anthony Richardson for veteran Joe Flacco. It was a big move from the organization. Richardson was the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and everybody knew he’d need some time to develop. But the Colts are clearly tired of waiting. They feel their season is far from over and that Flacco gives them a shot at making the playoffs. Honestly, how can you blame them? Flacco got off his couch and led the Browns to the postseason last year, and he looked like an elite quarterback in doing so. What’s interesting about that is that Flacco has been a Super Bowl MVP, but he looked better in a Cleveland uniform than he ever did with Baltimore. Flacco has also popped a little in his brief time under center with Indianapolis.

This season, the Colts are just 19th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play (0.048), but a lot of that has to do with Richardson’s struggles as a passer. When Flacco played in Weeks 4 through 6, Indianapolis had a Dropback EPA per play of 0.290. That was the fifth-best mark in the league in that three-week span, and it would be good for the fourth-best number in the NFL over the course of the entire season. That’s ultimately why Shane Steichen felt the need to make this move. His passing game was operating at a high level with Flacco under center, and that should also unlock a running game that has the potential to be great. After all, Indianapolis has Jonathan Taylor in the backfield.

Looking at this specific matchup, it’s hard not to like the Colts’ chances of moving the ball. For as good as the Vikings defense has looked, Minnesota is just 19th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.079) since Week 4. This secondary started the year hot, but it has been very burnable lately. So, Flacco should be able to make some big throws in this one. He’ll just need a little help from the rushing attack. Minnesota’s rushing defense has been amazing, and Indianapolis can’t afford to set Flacco up in too many third-and-long situations. But the Colts should be able to get Taylor going here. He rushed for 105 yards and a touchdown on 5.3 yards per carry against a good Texans defensive line last week.

I also don’t hate the matchup for this Colts defense. Indianapolis is seventh in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.156), so the team should be able to slow down the Minnesota ground game. And while Justin Jefferson will surely shake loose a couple of times in this one, the Colts will also like their chances against the Vikings passing attack. Sam Darnold had cooled down in a big way before shredding a bad Rams secondary last week. And losing left tackle Christian Darrisaw is going to be difficult for Kevin O’Connell’s team to manage. Darrisaw is one of the best tackles in the league, so Darnold’s blind side is now a bit of a question mark. The team did move quickly to bring in Cam Robinson from the Jaguars, but how quickly will he get up to speed?

Also, while the Colts are just 4-4 on the season, they are 7-1 against the spread and that includes a 3-1 mark on the road. Indianapolis is also 4-2 ATS when facing teams with winning records under Steichen. There’s also a lot of public support for the Vikings in this game, and that’s generally not a good sign for the team receiving most of the bets. It definitely looks like the sharp money is on Indianapolis. And for those interested in the total, it looks like the sharps like the Under. That’s interesting to me. This is a game with two offenses I like, plus two defenses I generally don’t trust. When you combine that with the fact it’ll be played in a dome, I’d think this will be a high-scoring affair.

Colts vs. Vikings Player Props

Josh Downs Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

In the three games that Flacco played for the Colts, Downs had eight catches for 82 yards, nine catches for 69 yards and seven catches for 66 yards. Downs also totaled 30 targets in that three-game span. It’s just very clear that Flacco has a good understanding of how to use a slot receiver like Downs, and I don’t see the veteran quarterback giving the 23-year-old the cold shoulder here. He knows that Downs has a special ability to create separation in the short-to-intermediate portion of the field, and that should allow Flacco to pick up some easy yardage throughout this game.

What’s also nice about this play is that the Colts also take shots to Downs down the field. We saw that with Richardson hitting him for a 69-yard bomb against the Texans last week. So, while Downs is going to do a lot of his damage out of the slot, he could also put a nice dent in this total with a big reception.

Colts vs. Vikings Pick

I always feel a bit goofy getting 5.5 points. It’s kind of a no man’s land when it comes to betting the NFL. But I do think this will be a game that will be decided by four or less, so I’ll take it here. I also think the Colts are pretty live in this one. Honestly, it feels like what we saw from Minnesota early in the year was a bit fluky, as this now looks like a very beatable team. So, I’m not sure I see the Vikings easily handling their business against a Colts team that should be fired up with a new quarterback under center.

Bet: Colts +5.5 (-110)

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