Indianapolis Colts 2024 Predictions and Odds:

The Colts were one play away from winning the AFC South in Shane Steichen’s first season. Then, they elected to throw a pass on 4th-and-1 at the Texans’ 15-yard line to little-used rookie back Tyler Goodson and it was dropped. Indianapolis has won one playoff game during general manager Chris Ballard’s tenure, which began in 2014. Ballard did not elect to go outside the organization in free agency and instead extended core players like receiver Michael Pittman and linebacker Zaire Franklin. This team is only going to go as far as Anthony Richardson, whose season ended after four starts in his rookie campaign, can take it. 

Offense

Richardson lasted four games before needing season-ending shoulder surgery. He has the size, speed, and athleticism that dazzles, but needs to stop taking unnecessary hits when running the ball. The arm strength is clearly there, but the accuracy (59.5% completions) was not last year. 

 

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Jonathan Taylor won his standoff with owner Jim Irsay and Ballard and ended his holdout after seven games by signing a three-year, $42 million extension. His presence should help with Richardson’s continued development. 

The offensive line, anchored by Quenton Nelson, remains intact, but center Ryan Kelly has seen his better days and right tackle Braden Smith has missed 16 starts in four years. 

Pittman (109 receptions, 1152 yards) returns to lead the receiving corps, but there was a big gap between him and No. 2 Josh Downs (68 receptions, 771 yards). Alec Pierce needs to show more consistency and second-round pick Adonai Mitchell (Texas) is the potential speedster that this group has lacked. 

Defense

Aside from Franklin (107 solo tackles – second in NFL), Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner, one of the better interior duos in the league, were both re-signed and/or extended. Nickel Kenny Moore and safety Julian Blackmon were brought back as well. 

This group should be good against the run and the pass rush could be improved by adding edge first-rounder Laiatu Latu (UCLA) to Samson Ebukam (9.5 sacks) and Kwity Paye (8.5 sacks). EJ Speed provides his name at linebacker along with Franklin. 

The young secondary is the weak link in Gus Bradley’s unit partially because they rarely disguise coverage and blitz at one of the league’s lowest rates. This group led the defense to rank 28th in the league for points allowed, including giving up 32 or more points in five home losses. 

Outlook

The Indianapolis Colts overachieved last year winning nine games considering they were in so many high-scoring affairs. They are by and large running it back with the same personnel that was not good enough to win the division last year. 

Having Richardson and Taylor together for the first time is certainly exciting, but questions will remain about both players being able to stay healthy throughout the season. If Richardson is injured again, Joe Flacco showed he still had something left in the tank by getting off his couch and helping lead Cleveland into the playoffs last year, but he is 39. 

Indianapolis also has to play three teams off bye weeks and two other teams with extra prep time off playing in Thursday night games. Aside from Richardson and Taylor’s health and a defense that needs to improve, these schedule disadvantages could be the most important difference between being a playoff team or not.

Indianapolis Colts Pick: Under 8.5 Wins

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