NFL Week 2 Betting Systems:

There is nothing quite like NFL Week 1 each season, and in particular the reaction to it. There are always big performances, surprise results, key injuries, and plenty more for the armchair quarterbacks to analyze. Unfortunately, what usually comes along with all of the analysis is an overreaction.

This past weekend was an eventful one in the league, with both of last year’s Super Bowl combatants bookending the action and flexing their muscles in key prime-time wins. We also saw dominant victories by teams like the Saints, Buccaneers, Vikings, and Dallas, while also witnessing three upset wins, one of those by the aforementioned Cowboys.

 

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Fortunately, unlike past years, the injury news wasn’t a big story in this past opening week, with QB Jordan Love being the biggest name to be affected, although latest reports indicate his knee injury wasn’t nearly as severe as feared. Of course, the 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey also missed the MNF game against the Jets, a controversial subject that is sure to be the focus of the league and fans for much of this week.

Still, regardless of what happened at any game this past weekend, the reality of Week 1 is that it is just one of 17 games for teams for the 2024 schedule. Nothing has been formulated yet, and we’ve only gotten perhaps hints of what could happen. To put it in perspective, do you ever see overblown analysis of the first 10 games of an MLB season? The first five contests on a team’s NBA slate? The answer is no.

With all of this in mind, bettors need to understand that teams tend to react and progress from their Week 1 results to their Week 2 games similarly year after year. I like to quantify these “reactions” through betting systems, and I have 15 different betting systems detailed below that are designed to help bettors turn what we saw in Week 1 into Week 2 profits. All of them have at least a 58% winning percentage and at least 18% ROI.

This year’s Week 1 action was slightly different from recent years in that favorites won 12 of the 16 games. Typically, underdogs fare much better. However, there were four other dogs that covered their point spreads in losses, so in all, the ledger between favorites and dogs was split 8/8. Similar to 2023, however, it was a “bloodbath” for players in the survivor contests, with the week’s biggest favorite, the Bengals, losing outright at home to New England. All of the results lead into a number of successful angles for Week 2 that have continued to thrive since I first introduced them a handful of years ago.

Let’s look at why these angles may be consistently successful. First, the NFL is a huge momentum league, and with only one game every week, it gives a team a lot of time to either stew on a loss or bask in a victory. During this time, the losing teams may start to doubt themselves, or the winning teams may think too highly of their games. The betting public and media sensationalize this thinking and theorize that what they just saw in Week 1 is the new standard. Bookmakers are thus placed in a precarious position of juggling what just happened with what should happen in the follow-up week, along with what the public thinks will happen. It is a fine balancing act.

In my opinion, the systems below come from two things. First, bookmakers do not want to over-adjust, and second, bookmakers try to balance their sides against new public sentiment. Over-adjusting seems to be getting more common in college football, but in the pros, with all the money that is wagered each week, they realize that they can’t radically adjust their lines in such a short window simply because of one game result. They are forced to wait out the first few weeks of any given season, hoping everything balances out. Because of this “oddsmaker patience,” I believe these one-week transitional systems are only valid this early in the season. So, let’s take a look, and then, of course, take advantage.

Think of the above explanation as you read through each system, and trust in those that you think make the most sense.

1. Week 1 favorites of 6 points or more that lost their games have bounced back with a record of 20-5 SU and 19-6 ATS (76%) in Week 2 since 2002 (+12.4 units, ROI: 49.6%, Grade 70)
Teams favored by 6 points or more in Week 1 are typically well-respected clubs in the NFL, and naturally they tend to bounce back when aided by a sense of urgency. In 2020, San Francisco and Indianapolis both responded to Week 1 upset losses with easy Week 2 wins. In 2021, the Bills rebounded quickly against Miami, winning 35-0. In 2022, San Francisco won handily, Denver won but failed to cover, and Cincinnati lost outright. There were no plays last year. The Bengals are back on the clock for 2024, but they face a difficult task in having to go to Arrowhead and take on the defending Super Bowl champs.
2024 Plays: CINCINNATI

2. NFL Week 2 teams that scored 30+ points last week and are now playing as favorites of 6-points or less or are underdogs are 17-37 SU and 19-35 ATS (35.2%) since 2012 (-19.5 units, ROI.: -36.1%, Grade 70)
If there’s any sign that what we saw from a team the prior week is not indicative of their true selves, this system would reveal it. Oddsmakers clearly don’t trust these teams’ explosive Week 1 efforts, as they aren’t priced as if that potency is going to last. Seemingly, it doesn’t, as these big Week 1 performers crash back down to earth quickly. For 2024, there were six teams that hit the 30-point mark in Week 1, and interestingly, two of them match up against one another in the Saints-Cowboys contest.
2024 Plays: Play AGAINST BUFFALO, NEW ORLEANS, TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO

3. Teams that beat their Week 1 point spread by 8 points or more in non-conference games are 20-10-3 Under (66.7%) the total in Week 2 since 2002 (+9.0 units, ROI: 30%, Grade 64)
Week 1 higher-scoring teams typically grab the attention of bettors. Having lit it up against unfamiliar opponents, they typically come back down to earth offensively against higher totals from oddsmakers. For 2024, all three teams that became qualifiers are favorites, and as such, we should expect big defensive efforts from them.
2024 Plays: Play UNDER in NEW ORLEANS-DALLAS, SAN FRANCISO-MINNESOTA, PITTSBURGH-DENVER

4. Teams that lost on the point spread by more than 14 points in Week 1 divisional games are 16-9 SU and 15-9-1 ATS (62.5%) in Week 2 since 2007 (+5.1 units, ROI.: 24.6%, Grade 60)
Second-week point spread adjustments tend to go against teams that were beaten soundly by divisional opponents in Week 1 and are, in most cases, over-adjustments. For 2024, it will take some courage to back this system, as Carolina was awful at New Orleans and will try to respond this week as a 6.5-point home dog to the Chargers.
2024 Plays: Play ON CAROLINA

5. Teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under (65%) the total in Week 2 since 2005 (+14.8 units, ROI: 24.7%, Grade 63)
This one is genuinely tough to explain, but it could stem from the emotional toll of winning a close game and the potential offensive letdown that might occur, at least early in the contest. Whatever the reason, 18 games over .500 gives the system merit. One of the two qualifying games for this one is on Thursday night, and those TNF contests have become well-known for unexpectedly low-scoring contests on occasion.
2024 Plays: UNDER in Buffalo-MIAMI, Chicago-HOUSTON

6. Teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 have responded by going 47-28-3 ATS (62.7%) in Week 2 over the last 12 seasons (+16.2 units, ROI: 21.6%, Grade 58)
This is as direct of an overreaction system as there is, and it goes against all that the betting public was told they “learned” in Week 1. With so much emotion on the line in a season opener, it’s no wonder a team over- or underachieves in that contest. Those who got beat soundly in their opener have had a tendency to come back strong in their second games. These are hard teams to back, though, as your initial impression is that they aren’t good. Six of this year’s 16 Week 1 games were decided by 10+ points, and four teams qualify for this angle as Washington/NY Giants cancel each other out.
2024 Plays:  NY JETS, CAROLINA, LAS VEGAS, CLEVELAND

7. Teams whose opponent played in the weeknight season opening game and thus have extra rest are 15-23 SU but 22-15-1 ATS (59.5%) in Week 2 since 2005 (+5.5 units, R.O.I.: 14.9%, Grade 53)
Routine, Routine, Routine. Teams that play in the season opener are out of that typical routine, and most teams rely on that for peak performance throughout the season. Extra rest is typically valued more at later parts in the season. This is a tough system to stomach, usually, since it requires fading two of the better teams in the league. For 2024, we also had a Friday game, which featured the Packers and Eagles. We’ll keep track of how the Colts and Falcons fare in Week 2, as those are the opponents for those teams. However, the system has only included the opening night games for now.
2024 Plays: Play on CINCINNATI, LAS VEGAS

8. Teams that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 27-23 SU and 27-19-2 ATS (58.7%) since 2006 in Week 2 (+6.1 units, ROI.: 13.3%, Grade 50)
The momentum created by a big divisional win in Week 1 seems to carry over well into Week 2. This system is only 5-9 SU and 7-7 ATS over the last four seasons, so it is also teetering on the edge of removal from the list. For 2024, there are two qualifiers. Both are on the road for their Week 2 games, and the Chargers are taking on the same Carolina team that the Saints crushed last week.
2024 Plays: Play on LA CHARGERS, NEW ORLEANS

9. In NFL Week 2 games between teams that are both 0-1 ATS, underdogs are on a phenomenal run of 18-21 SU but 26-11-2 ATS (70.3%) since 2014 (+14.8 units, ROI: 40%, Grade 68)
The point spread in the NFL can generate a lot of motivation. When a team is an underdog against another team that underperformed last week, that team can feel a bit of disrespect. On the other hand, its tough being a favorite in the NFL, especially when a team isn’t clicking. The favorites in these games didn’t play well in Week 1; what’s to say they will respond in Week 2 when expected to win.
2024 Plays: Play on TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS, BUFFALO, LAS VEGAS

10. In NFL Week 2 games between teams that are both 1-0 ATS, underdogs also rule at the betting window, 19-26 SU but 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%) since 2012 (+8.3 units, ROI.: 18.9%, Grade 60)
This system is 10-1 ATS since 2020, as again underdogs are highly motivated by the point spread, particularly since they played well enough to cover the prior week, perhaps building confidence.
2024 Plays: Play on MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY, DENVER, NEW ORLEANS

11. Teams playing a second straight home game in Week 2 and are favored have gone 13-8 SU and but 5-16 ATS (27.3%) over the last 12 seasons (-12.6 units, ROI.: -60%, Grade 65)
This system is 1-9 ATS since 2017, as perhaps too much stock is put into the back-to-back home field edge scenario. This is also going to be a system in which you’ll have to probably fade the public and go against the grain on, as the Dolphins, Lions, and Chiefs have been some of the most formidable teams at home in the league over the past couple of seasons.
2024 Plays: Play AGAINST MIAMI, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY

The following four systems have been on my list for many years but have no qualifying plays for 2024:

12. Teams playing a second straight divisional game in Week 2 are an impressive 36-18-1 SU and ATS (66.7%) since 2003 (+16.2 units, ROI: 30%, Grade 65)
Divisional games typically require greater focus and intensity, and these teams are well-prepared the second time around. For this year, there were only three divisional contests in Week 1, and none of those six teams faces another divisional foe this week, so we’ll have to wait for 2025 to take advantage of this one again.
2024 Plays: Play ON NONE

13. Teams playing as underdogs in their second of back-to-back divisional games are 15-16-1 SU and 21-10-1 ATS (67.8%) in Week 2 since 2004 (+10 units, ROI: 32.3%, Grade 63)
This is the same as #4 above, only adding a line qualifier. The motivation of being an underdog to a divisional opponent provides the needed incentive for these Week 2 dogs to compete. This has been an outstanding moneyline system over the years as well, hitting at 48.4% on outright winners, so don’t ignore that betting option. For 2024, again no team plays a second straight divisional tilt this week, a scheduling change from recent years.
2024 Plays: Play ON NONE

14. Teams that lost (or tied) as road favorites in week have bounced back with a record of 21-12 SU and ATS (63.6%) in Week 2 over the last 12 seasons (+7.8 units, ROI.: 23.6%, Grade 60)
Week 1 road favorites are usually highly regarded teams. They have proven good enough to be able to bounce back from a loss in that game, in most cases avoiding a 0-2 start. For 2024, both the Vikings and Texans won their opening week games as road favorites, so neither qualifies here.
2024 Plays: Play ON NONE

15. NFL Week 2 teams that went Under their Week 1 total by at least 17 points are 27-17 Over (61.4%) the total since 2008 (+9.3 units, ROI.: 21.1%, Grade 56)
These teams underachieved offensively in Week 1, creating a situation where oddsmakers adjust their total downward too quickly. Early public perception says that these could be worse offenses in 2024. This system proves it’s too early to make that conclusion. This angle was 2-0 last year. The only games that underperformed offensively in Week 1 were the Steelers-Falcons (-15 off total) and Patriots-Bengals (14.5 off total).
2024 Plays: NONE

Good luck with your Week 2 NFL plays!

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